• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.177-183
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• 2006

Risk-based estimation has been successfully introduced into the construction industry. By incorporating historical data associated with probability analysis, risk-based estimate is an effective decision support aid in considering whether to launch a particular project. The industry challenges, however, especially related with management issues, such as labor shortage, wage growth, and supply chain complexity, have often resulted in poor cost performance. The insufficient assessing the project characteristics (i.e., resource availability, project complexity, and project delivery method) can be the main reasons in the poor cost performance. Because the accuracy level of cost performance prediction can be enhanced by extensive evaluation of the subject project characteristics, a new approach for predicting cost performance in an earlier stage of a project can improve the Industry substantiality, in other words, value maximization. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new methodology in developing a risk-based estimate tool by incorporating extensive project characteristics. To do this, an extensive industry survey was conducted from both private and public sectors in building industry in Korea. In addition, significant project characteristics were identified in terms of cost performance indicator. Although the data collection is limited to Korean industry the suggested approach provides the industry with a straightforward methodology in risk management. As many researchers maintained that front-end planning efforts are crucial in achieving the successful outcome in building projects, the new method for risk-based estimation can Improve the cost performance as well as enhance the fulfillment in terms of business sustainability.

• 토지주택연구
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.115-124
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• 2020

Incentive/Disincentive (I/D) contract is designed for minimizing any disruption of traffic flow in road construction projects. I/D contracting projects have been evaluated with regard to time and cost performance in various states, more than 35 states. However, construction project managers and planners have little understanding of the project factors that affect the project time and cost performance of highway construction projects using I/D regulations. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to find factors that affect I/D project success or failure to improve the decision-making process for the implementation of I/D projects. In order to achieve the objectives of this research, the researchers collected I/D road construction project data from FDOT and performed evaluation for each collected project. Then, project data analysis to identify key factors that affect I/D project performance was performed. In conclusion, five significant factors for project time performance and six significant factors for project cost perfornace were identified and summarized.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.174-178
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• 2015

This paper presents a new method for forecasting construction project cost and time at completion or at any intermediate time horizon of the project duration. The method is designed to overcome identified limitations of current applications of earned value method in forecasting project cost and time. The proposed method usesfuzzy set theory to model uncertainties associated with project performance and it integrates the earned value technique and the contractors' judgement. The fuzzy set theory is applied as an alternative approach to deterministic and probabilistic methods. Using fuzzy set theory allows contractors to: (1) perform risk analysis for different scenarios of project performance indices, and (2) perform different scenarios expressing vagueness and imprecision of forecasted project cost and time using a set of measures and indices. Unlike the current applications of Earned Value Method(EVM), The proposed method has a numberof interesting features: (1) integrating contractors' judgement in forecasting project performance; (2) enabling contractors to evaluate the risk associated with cost overrun in much simpler method comparing with that of simulation, and (3) accounting for uncertainties involved in the forecasting project cost.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.72-76
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• 2015

Capital project benchmarking requires an effective cost normalization process to compare cost performance of projects accomplished in different time and location. Existing cost normalization approaches have been established based on the assumption that all required information for cost normalization is fully identified once a project is completed. Cost normalization, however, is sometimes required to evaluate phase-level outcomes of an ongoing project where the required information is not fully available. This paper aims to provide a cost normalization procedure for phase-based performance assessment. The procedure consists of three normalization steps: currency conversion, location adjustment, and time adjustment considering various scenarios where the required information is not fully identified. This paper also presents how the cost normalization procedure has been applied to the 10-10 Performance Assessment Program, which is a phase-based performance assessment system developed by the Construction Industry Institute (CII). Both researchers and industrial professionals can apply the cost normalization procedure to studies and practices regarding to cost estimation, feasibility analysis, and performance assessment.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 9th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.50-56
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• 2022

Change Orders generally impact cost and schedule performance of highway projects. However, highway projects that do not have any change orders also face cost growth and schedule delays. This study seeks to determine the cost and schedule performance of Texas DOT projects by collecting project data for 120 highway projects completed between 2016 to 2020. For the study, we selected project data that has zero or negative change orders which were then grouped and analyzed based on their Project Types i.e., maintenance works; structural works; restoration and rehabilitation works; and safety works. The study found that performance of Maintenance and Safety type projects had less cost and schedule growth among the data analyzed. Statistical tests also found that even though the projects have no change orders, Rehabilitation and Restoration type projects experienced significant schedule growth compared to others. However, the data did not show any significant cost and schedule growth for the projects when statistical tests were performed on overall data. The study concluded that highway projects are experiencing schedule growth even though the projects had no change orders. Results from the study can help planners, engineers, and administrators to gain better insight on how different types of highway projects are performing in terms of cost and schedule and eventually derive appropriate solutions to minimize cost and schedule growth in such projects.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2023년도 봄 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.329-330
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• 2023

The performance of the construction project is to be evaluated within 60 days of completion, according to relevant laws. It evaluates cost, construction period, design change, re-construction, safety, etc. for each project stage. And the project owners are inputting the evaluation results of the construction work into the construction project information system(CALS). The post-evaluation result information entered in this way can be referred to in the basic design of the construction project by referring to the related contents if there is a similar construction in the future. And It can also be used to predict and respond to the required period and cost by analyzing the accumulated data. In this study, in order to provide reference data that can be used in similar projects in the future, the latest analysis methods are reviewed and the possibility of future application is considered. Accordingly, this study intends to focus on the construction cost part among the indicators such as construction cost, construction period, design change, and re-construction that are currently being dealt with in post evaluation.

• 교육녹색환경연구
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.46-54
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• 2012

The accuracy of cost estimation at an early stage in school building project is one of the critical factors for successful completion. So various of techniques are developed to predict the construction cost accurately and expeditely. Among the techniques, Support Vector Machine(SVM) has an excellent ability for generalization performance. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to construct the prediction model for construction cost of educational building project using support vector machine technique. And to verify the accuracy of prediction model for construction cost. The performance data used in this study are 217 school building project cost which have been completed from 2004 to 2007 in Gyeonggi-Do, Korea. The result shows that average error rate was 7.48% for SVM prediction model. So using SVM model on predicting construction cost of educational building project will be a considerably effective way at the early project stage.

• 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건설관리학회 2001년도 학술대회지
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• pp.379-382
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• 2001

국내 건설프로젝트는 공정관리와 원가관리의 이원적 관리체계를 가지고 있으며, 공정관리는 아직 그 체계가 미흡하고 상대적으로 관리의 중요도가 낮게 평가되고 있는 현실이다. 현재의 원가위주의 관리체계로는 프로젝트 진행과정상의 수행성과를 정확히 파악하기 어려우며, 이에 따라 공기지연, 공사비초과, 생산성저하 둥의 문제가 야기되고 있다. 따라서 프로젝트를 계획된 기간과 비용안에 효율적으로 완성하기 위해서는 비용과 일정의 통합관리를 통한 정확한 실적관리기법의 도입이 요구된다. 이에 본 연구에서는 실공정을 중심으로 한 실적관리를 통해 프로젝트의 성과를 정확히 파악하여 성공적 프로젝트 수행을 위한 방안으로 비용과 일정의 통합관리를 통한 실적관리 모델을 제시하였다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.332-337
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• 2013

Various project delivery methods have been utilized by owners over the years to maximize project performance. The design-build delivery method is being increasingly used due to the advantages it can offer to an engineering construction industry. Numerous studies have advocated the use of design/build over the traditional design/bid/build delivery approach. This study represents comprehensive analysis of 40 projects from the construction industry and shows that design/build method may not provide all the benefits to project performance. This study found timesaving was a definitive advantage of design/build project delivery, but the positive effects of cost changes was not convincing. Based on the results of the study, the project management expertise and experience of the contractor may have a greater impact on project performance outcomes than focusing on project delivery strategy only.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.85-99
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• 1995

Increasingly, risk analysis is becoming important ingredients in achieving the successful implementation and application in the area of the project management. The project management system is designed to manage or control the project resources on a given activity within time, cost and performance so called TPPM (Total Productive Project Management). In this research, a risk analysis model misproposed to identify potential problem areas, quantify the risks, and generated the chice of the action that can be taken to reduce the risk. In addition two analysis models are proposed : 1) risk factor model and 2) network simulation model using VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique ). The objective of the remodels is to estimate the schedule, cost performance risks. These proposed quantitative models for project risk analysis are proving its value for the project managers who need to assess the risk of changes in cost, schedule, or performance. The proposed models will be used in the area of project selection, evaluation and the allocation of project resources.