• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.1-13
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• 2019

In this study, we propose rainfall frequency criteria for the development of early-warning system based on the evaluation of the highway debris flow that includes the contents of the rainfall recurrence cycle. The rainfall criterion was recommended based on the results of previous researches and the recommended rainfall criterion was 1 hour, 6 hours, and 3 days. At this time, the study subjects were located in Gangwon area and the probability rainfall of 8 stations in Gangwon area was collected. Also, the probabilistic distribution of the 1 hour, 6 hour, and 3 day rainfall criteria to be used for the early warning for the highway debris flow in Kangwon area was estimated through the probability analysis. In addition, we analyzed the correlation between 3 types of rainfall criteria selected from the rainfall data and the actual destructive damages of debris flow at 12 points in 7 lines of Gangwon highways. At this time, the rainfall criterion on the probability distribution was divided into an average value and a lower limit value. As a result of the review, it was found that the case of using the lower limit value of the rainfall according to the recurrence intervalwell simulates the situation of actual debris flow hazards.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.241-252
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• 2019

To choose appropriate countermeasures against potential coastal disaster damages caused by a storm surge, it is necessary to estimate the frequency of storm surge heights estimation. As the coastal populations size in the past was small, the tropical cyclone risk model (TCRM) was used to generate 176,689 synthetic typhoons. In simulation, historical paths and central pressures were incorporated as a probability density function. Moreover, to consider the typhoon characteristics that resurfaced or decayed after landfall on the southeast coast of China, incorporated the shift angle of the historical typhoon as a function of the probability density function and applied it as a damping parameter. Thus, the passing rate of typhoons moving from the southeast coast of China to the south coast has improved. The characteristics of the typhoon were analyzed from the historical typhoon information using correlations between the central pressure, maximum wind speed ($V_{max}$) and the maximum wind speed radius ($R_{max}$); it was then applied to synthetic typhoons. The storm surges were calculated using the ADCIRC model, considering both tidal and synthetic typhoons using automated Perl script. The storm surges caused by the probabilistic synthetic typhoons appear similar to the recorded storm surges, therefore this proposed scheme can be applied to the storm surge simulations. Based on these results, extreme values were calculated using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) method, and as a result, the 100-year return period storm surge was found to be satisfactory compared with the calculated empirical simulation value. The method proposed in this study can be applied to estimate the frequency of storm surges in coastal areas.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.147-160
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• 2020

A stochastic probabilistic model for harbor structures such as rubble-mound breakwater has been formulated by using the generalized Wiener process considering the nonlinearity of damage drift and its nonlinear uncertainty, by which the damage path with real-time can be tracked, the residual useful lifetime at some age can also be analyzed properly. The formulated stochastic model can easily calculate the probability of failure with the passage of time through the probability density function of cumulative damage. In particular, the probability density functions of residual useful lifetime of the existing harbor structures can be derived, which can take into account the current age, its present damage state and the future damage process to be occurred. By using the maximum likelihood method and the least square method together, the involved parameters in the stochastic model can be estimated. In the calibration of the stochastic model presented in this paper, the present results are very well similar with the results of MCS about tracking of the damage paths as well as evaluating of the density functions of the cumulative damage and the residual useful lifetime. MTTF and MRL are also evaluated exactly. Meanwhile, the stochastic probabilistic model has been applied to the rubble-mound breakwater. The related parameters can be estimated by using the experimental data of the cumulative damages of armor units measured as a function of time. The theoretical results about the probability density function of cumulative damage and the probability of failure are very well agreed with MCS results such that the density functions of the cumulative damage tend to move to rightward and the amounts of its uncertainty are increased as the elapsed time goes on. Thus, the probabilities of failure with the elapsed time are also increased sharply. Finally, the behaviors of residual useful lifetime have been investigated with the elapsed age. It is concluded for rubble-mound breakwaters that the probability density functions of residual useful lifetime tends to have a longer tail in the right side rather than the left side because of the gradual increases of cumulative damage of armor units. Therefore, its MRLs are sharply decreased after some age. In this paper, the special attentions are paid to the relationship of MTTF and MRL and the elapsed age of the existing structure. In spite of that the sum of the elapsed age and MRL must be equal to MTTF deterministically, the large difference has been shown as the elapsed age is increased which is due to the uncertainty of cumulative damage to be occurred in the future.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.367-391
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• 2013

After the Fukushima nuclear accident, the external costs of generating electricity from nuclear power plants such as additional safety compliance costs and possible accident risk action costs have gained increasing attention from the public, policy-makers and politicians. Consequently, estimates of the external costs of nuclear power are very deliberate issue that is at the center of the controversy in Korea. In this paper, we try to calculate the external costs associated with the safety of the nuclear power plants, particularly focusing on additional safety compliance costs and possible accident risk action costs. To estimate the possible accident risk action costs, we adopt the damages expectation approach that is very similar way from the external cost calculation of Japanese government after the Fukushima accident. In addition, to estimate additional safety compliance costs, we apply the levelized cost of generation method. Furthermore, we perform the sensitivity analysis to examine how much these social costs increase the electricity price rate. Estimation results of the additional security measure cost is 0.53Won/kWh ~ 0.80Won/kWh depending on the capacity factor, giving little change on the nuclear power generation cost. The estimates of possible accident risk action costs could be in the wide range depending on the different damages of the nuclear power accident, probability of the severe nuclear power accident and the capacity factor. The preliminary results show that it is 0.0025Won/kWh ~ 26.4188Won/kWh. After including those two external costs on the generation cost of a nuclear power plant, increasing rate of electricity price is 0.001%~10.0563% under the capacity factor from 70% to 90%. This paper tries to examine the external costs of nuclear power plants, so as to include it into the generation cost and the electricity price. This paper suggests one of the methodologies that we might internalize the nuclear power generations' external cost, including it into the internal generation cost.

• The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.61-105
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• 2007

The Hospitalized Acquired Infection is defined as the case where the hidden infection or not found at the time of hospitalization occurs during the hospitalized period or, within 30 days to those who performed the surgery operation and then left the hospital. About 2/3 of the Hospitalized Acquired Infection are found as having the internal infection cases that are occurred by the patients' own virus due to the lowered immune system, while about 1/3 are found as having the external infection. The latter 1/3 of the external infection cases can be prevented through the infection management. And in case the new Hospitalized Acquired Infection case occur to the patient who was treated in the hospital, its responsibility issue will matter. As well in the disputes over the Hospitalized Acquired Infection cases, the cause-result relation between the damages and the medical staff's fault and as to whether there is failure of the medical staff or not. personnel should be proved in the medical-malpractice cases. In addition, the difficulties in proving such as expertise, secrecy propensity, discrete propensity and incompleteness will be considered to ease the burden of patient side's proving. Probability theory, Fact based assumption theory, Most adequate plaintiff preassumption or Expressed evidence theories are being discussed as the theories of eased burden of proof. In the result of gathering and reviewing Korea's precedent cases concerning the Hospitalized Acquired Infection, there are only a few accumulated prece dent cases and the attitude of the court also are also not consistent. Therefore, there are the precedents where the cause-result relation and the failure are immediately assumed when (1) timely proximity between the medical behavior and malpractice results, (2) proximity between the medical behavior-applied parts and the malpractice results-found parts, and (3) lack of other causes are separately evidenced; while the are the precedents only when 'the existence of the medical faults based on the common sense' is separately evidenced. It was found that the former and latter cases coexisted. The former is considered as based on the theory that separates the fault and cause-result relation not to consider them together, or regarded as based on the doubts that assumes the medical staff's neglect even though the Hospitalized Acquired Infection might be completely prevented by their efforts. However, the modern medical technology has the limitation as far as the prevention of the Hospitalized Acquired Infection. In conclusion, the assumption of the cause-result relation and that of the fault should be separately reviewed. Therefore, the latter precedents are considered as more reasonable, in the point the faulty behavior may be proved based on the common sense.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.175-185
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• 2017

As the gas is manufactured, handled and used more often due to the continuous increase of gas, the related facility gets expanded and more complex causing small and big accident which causes economic loss including damage for humans and materials. The gas pipeline, the most common gas facility, has the biggest risk of accidents. Especially in the urban area and densely populated areas, the accident due to the high pressure pipeline may cause even more serious damages. To prevent the accident caused by the buried pipeline, it is required for the relevant authorities to evaluate the damage and risk of the whole pipeline system effectively. A risk is usually defined as a possibility or probability of an undesired event happening, and there is always a risk even when the probability of failure is set low once the pipeline is installed or under operation. It is reported that the accident caused by the failure of the pipeline rarely happens, however, it is important to minimize the rate of accidents by analyzing the reason of failure as it could cause a huge damage of humans and property. Therefore, the paper rated the risk of pipelines with quantitative numbers using the qualitative risk analysis method of the Scoring Model. It is assumed that the result could be effectively used for practical maintenance and management of pipelines securing the safety of the pipes.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.4267-4275
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• 2015

Prefabricated houses are fabricated at the factory for approximately 60 to 80% of the entire construction process, and assembled in the field. In the process of transporting and lifting, internal and external finishes of the unit module are concerned about damages. The purpose of this study is to improve the fixing equipment by analyzing load behavior. The improved fixing equipment would minimize the deformation of internal and external finishes. In order to develop the improved fixing equipment, transporting load on the fixing equipment is analyzed using Monte Carlo simulations, and structural performance is verified by the non-linear finite element analysis. Statistical analysis shows load distribution of unit module is similar with extreme value distribution. Based on the statistical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, the maximum transporting load is 28.9kN and 95% confidence interval of transporting load is -1.22kN to 9.5kN. The nonlinear structural analysis shows improved fixing equipment is not destructed to the limit load of 35.3kN and withstands the load-bearing in the 95% confidence interval of transporting load.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.39 no.11
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• pp.1169-1174
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• 2015

Risk-Risk-based inspection (RBI) has been developed in order to identify risky equipments that can cause major accidents or damages in large-scale plants. This assessment evaluates the equipment's risk, categorizes their priorities based on risk level, and then determines the urgency of their maintenance or allocates maintenance resources. An earlier version of the risk-based assessment software is already installed within the equipment management system; however, the assessment is based on examination by an inspector, and the results can be influenced by his subjective judgment, rather than assessment being based on failure probability. Moreover, the system is housed within a server, which limits the inspector's work space and time, and such a system can be used only on site. In this paper, the development of independent risk-based assessment software is introduced; this software calculates the failure probability by an analytical method, and analyzes the field inspection results, as well as inspection effectiveness. It can also operate on site, since it can be installed on an independent platform, and has the ability to generate an I/O function for the field inspection results regarding the period for an optimum maintenance cycle. This program will provide useful information not only to the field users who are participating in maintenance, but also to the engineers who need to decide whether to extend the lifecycle of the power machinery or replace only specific components.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.435-448
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• 2018

In order to make reliable earthquake-resistant design of civil engineering structures, one of the most important considerations in a region with high seismicity is to pay attention to the local soil condition of regions. It is aimed in the current study at specifying dynamic soil characteristics of Kirikkale city center conducting the 1-D equivalent linear and non-linear site response analyses. Due to high vulnerability and seismicity of the city center of Kirikkale surrounded by active many faults, such as the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), the city of Kirikkale is classified as highly earthquake-prone city. The first effort to determine critical site response parameter is to perform the seismic hazard analyses of the region through the earthquake record catalogues. The moment magnitude of the city center is obtained as $M_w=7.0$ according to the recorded probability of exceedance of 10% in the last 50 years. Using the data from site tests, the 1-D equivalent linear (EL) and nonlinear site response analyses (NL) are performed with respect to the shear modulus reduction and damping ratio models proposed in literature. The important engineering parameters of the amplification ratio, predominant site period, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration values are predicted. Except for the periods between the period of T=0.2-1.0 s, the results from the NL are obtained to be similar to the EL results. Lower spectral acceleration values are estimated in the locations of the city where the higher amplification ratio is attained or vice-versa. Construction of high-rise buildings with modal periods higher than T=1.0 s are obtained to be suitable for the city of Kirikkale. The buildings at the city center are recommended to be assessed with street survey rapid structural evaluation methods so as to mitigate seismic damages. The obtained contour maps in this study are estimated to be effective for visually characterizing the city in terms of the considered parameters.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.248-251
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• 2011

Objective : In the field of spinal surgery, a few laboratory results or clinical cases about robotic spinal surgery have been reported. In vivo trials and development of related surgical instruments for spinal surgery are required before its clinical application. We investigated the use of the da $Vinci^{(R)}$ Surgical System in spinal surgery at the craniovertebral junction in a human cadaver to demonstrate the efficacy and pitfalls of robotic surgery. Methods : Dissection of pharyngeal wall to the exposure of C1 and odontoid process was performed with full robotic procedure. Although assistance of another surgeon was necessary for drilling and removal of odontoid process due to the lack of appropriate end-effectors, successful robotic procedures for dural sutures and exposing spinal cord proved its safety and dexterity. Results : Robot-assisted odontoidectomy was successfully performed in a human cadaver using the da $Vinci^{(R)}$ Surgical System with few robotic arm collisions and minimal soft tissue damages. Da $Vinci^{(R)}$ Surgical System manifested more dexterous movement than human hands in the deep and narrow oral cavity. Furthermore, sutures with robotic procedure in the oral cavity demonstrated the advantage over conventional procedure. Conclusion : Presenting cadaveric study proved the probability of robot-assisted transoral approach. However, the development of robotic instruments specific to spinal surgery must first precede its clinical application.