• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.4
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• pp.39-46
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• 2012

The objectives of this study is intended to analyze stresses using the boundary element method and probability analysis for agricultural structure. Loads and material properties are an important factor when analyzing the structure. Until now, designing structure, loads and material properties are applied deterministic value. However, load and material properties involve uncertainties due to those change probabilistic and deterministic methods could not consider uncertainties. To solve these problems, the reliability analysis based on probability properties scheme was developed. Reliability analysis is easy to approach to analysis frame structure, however it has limitation when solving plane stress strain problems a kind of agricultural structures. The BEM (Boundary Element Method) is able to analysis plane strain problems by boundary conditions. Thus, this study applied boundary element method to analysis plane strain problem, load and material properties as a probabilistic value to calculate the analytical model using Monte Carlo simulations were developed.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.1-8
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• 2010

P-PIE program is developed for evaluating failure probability of pipes in nuclear power plants based on the existing PRAISE program. In the program, crack growth due to fatigue loading and stress corrosion can be considered and the probability of fracture or leakage of pipes can be calculated. Crack growth simulation is performed based on stress intensity factor and a damage parameter and failure of a pipe is determined based on J integral or net section yielding. Using the developed program the failure probabilities of tubes in a domestic nuclear power is obtained and discussed.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.39-55
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• 2017

Preeminent performance of construction industry are unattainable with poor productivity resulting in time and cost over runs. Enhancement in productivity cannot be achieved without identifying and analyzing factors that adversely affect productivity. The objective therefore is to propose a productivity analysis model to quantify the probability of effect of factors influencing productivity by using fuzzy logic incorporated with relative importance index method, for various types of construction projects. To achieve this objective, a questionnaire survey was carried out targeting respondents of Indian construction industry, from four distinct projects, namely, residential, commercial, infrastructure and industrial projects. Based on questionnaire administered, the relative importance and ranks of factors demonstrated using relative importance index method. Probability assessment model to analyze productivity was then developed by using Fuzzy Logic Toolbox of MATLAB. The applicability of the proposed model was tested in seven construction projects and the probability of impact of factors on productivity evaluated. The results of application of model in the construction firms infers that the most contributing factor groups for most of the projects were discerned to be manpower, motivation and time group.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.21-43
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• 2016

A conditional probability based approach known as Particle Filter Method (PFM) is a powerful tool for system parameter identification. In this paper, PFM has been applied to identify the vehicle parameters based on response statistics of the bridge. The flexibility of vehicle model has been considered in the formulation of bridge-vehicle interaction dynamics. The random unevenness of bridge has been idealized as non homogeneous random process in space. The simulated response has been contaminated with artificial noise to reflect the field condition. The performance of the identification system has been examined for various measurement location, vehicle velocity, bridge surface roughness factor, noise level and assumption of prior probability density. Identified vehicle parameters are found reasonably accurate and reconstructed interactive force time history with identified parameters closely matches with the simulated results. The study also reveals that crude assumption of prior probability density function does not end up with an incorrect estimate of parameters except requiring longer time for the iterative process to converge.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.95-106
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• 1983

The probability of failure is used to analyze the reliability of three dimensional slope failure, instead of conventional factor of safety. The strength parameters are assumed to be normal variated and beta variated. These are interval estimated under the specified confidence level and maximum likelihood estimation. The pseudonormal and beta random variables are generated using the uniform probability transformation method according to central limit theorem and rejection method. By means of a Monte-Carlo Simulation, the probability of failure is defined as; $$P_f$$=M/N N: Total number of trials M: Total number of failures some of the conclusions derived from the case study include; 1. If the strength parameters are assumed to be normal variated, the relationship between safety factor and the probability of failure is fairly consistent, regardless of the procedures of analysis and dimensions of assumed rupture surfaces. 2. However if the strength parameters are beta variated, general relationship between $F_s$ and $P_f$ is hardly found.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.295-307
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• 2000

Probabilistic analysis is a powerful method to quantify variability and uncertainty common in engineering geology fields. In rock slope engineering, the uncertainty and variation may be in the form of scatter in orientations and geometries of discontinuities, and also test results. However, in the deterministic analysis, the factor of safety which is used to ensure stability of rock slopes, is based on the fixed representative values for each parameter without a consideration of the scattering in data. For comparison, in the probabilistic analysis, these discontinuity parameters are considered as random variables, and therefore, the reliability and probability theories are utilized to evaluate the possibility of slope failure. Therefore, in the probabilistic analysis, the factor of safety is considered as a random variable and replaced by the probability of failure to measure the level of slope stability. In this study, the stochastic properties of discontinuity parameters are evaluated and the stability of rock slope is analyzed based on the random properties of discontinuity parameters. Then, the results between the deterministic analysis and the probabilistic analysis are compared and the differences between the two analysis methods are explained.

• Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.795-802
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• 2012

Geminate electron-hole recombination in organic solids in the presence of a donor-acceptor heterojunction is studied by computer simulations. We analyze how the charge-pair separation probability in such systems is affected by energetic disorder of the media, anisotropy of charge-carrier mobilities, and other factors. We show that in energetically disordered systems the effect of heterojunction on the charge-pair separation probability is stronger than that in idealized systems without disorder. We also show that a mismatch between electron and hole mobilities reduces the separation probability, although in energetically disordered systems this effect is weaker compared to the case of no energetic disorder. We demonstrate that the most important factor that determines the charge-pair separation probability is the ratio of the sum of electron and hole mobilities to the rate constant of recombination reaction. We also consider systems with mobility anisotropy and calculate the electric field dependence of the charge-pair separation probability for all possible orientations of high-mobility axes in the donor and acceptor phases. We theoretically show that it is possible to increase the charge-pair separation probability by controlling the mobility anisotropy in heterojunction systems and in consequence to achieve higher efficiencies of organic photovoltaic devices.

• Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.53-64
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• 2018

In this study, the evaluation to probability of failure for risk assessment of port structures on DCM reinforced soils, where stability and risk assessment are increasing in importance, was performed. As a random variables affecting the risk of DCM improved ground, the design strength, superposition (overlap) of construction, strength of the natural ground, internal friction angle and unit weight of the modified ground were selected and applied to the risk assessment. In addition, the failure probability for the entire system under ordinary conditions and under earthquake conditions were analyzed. As a result, it was found that the highest coefficient of variation in the random variable for the risk assessment of the DCM improved ground is the design strength, but this does not have a great influence on the safety factor, ie, the risk of the system. The main risk factor for the failure probability of the system for the DCM reinforced soils was evaluated as horizontal sliding in case of external stability and compression failure in case of internal stability both at ordinary condition and earthquake condition. In addition, the failure probability for ordinary horizontal sliding is higher than that for earthquake failure, and the failure probability for ordinary compression failure is lower than that for earthquake failure. The ordinary failure probability of the entire system is similar to the failure probability on earthquake condition, but in this case, the risk of earthquake is somewhat higher.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.158-164
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• 2008

Abstract Infiltration of rainfall that may lead to reduce resistance force due to reduction of matric suction and to increase driving force due to increase of self weight makes the slope fail. There are many specifications to make slope stable based on factor of safety. Although result of slope stability analysis satisfy the specifications, slope failures triggered by rainfall are frequently occurred in reality because slope stability analysis cannot consider uncertainty of each soil properties. This is why conventional analysis has limitation and development of alternative method is needed. So it is suggested to adopt the reliability analysis rather than design based on factor of safety into designing safer structure. Through the evaluation of handicaps for the factor of safety based design, calculation of soil properties by site investigation, and reliability analysis considering distribution of each soil properties, distribution of failure probability in railway slope is obtained. Then, Risk assessment of slopes in Korean railway is executed from the results. Damage loss and incoming loss are considered as the loss. Using these results, it is possible to make proper countermeasure or efficient maintenance.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.2037-2047
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• 1991

Strength is not simply a single given value but rather is a statistical one with certain distribution functions. This is because it is affected by many unknown factors such as size, shape, stress distribution, and combined stresses. In this study, a model of loss probability is proposed in view of the fact that one of the fundamental configuration of nature is hexagonal, for example, the shapes of lattice unit, grain, and so on. The model sues the concept of loss of certain element in place of Jayatilaka-Trustrum's length and angle of cracks. Using this model, the loss probability due to each loss of certain elements is obtained. Then, the maximum principal stress is calculated by the finite element method at the centroid of the elements under the tensile load for the 4,095 models of analysis. Finally, the failure probability of the brittle materials is obtained by multiplying the loss probability by the ratio of the maximum principal stress to theoretical tensile strength. Comparison of the result of the Jayatilaka-Trustrum's model and the proposed model shows that the failure probabilities by the two methods are in good agreement. Further, it is shown that the parametric relationship of semi-crack lengths for various degrees of birittleness can be determined. Therefore, the analysis of the failure probability suing the proposed model is shown to be promising as a new method for the study of the failure probability of birttle materials.