• Genomics & Informatics
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.17.1-17.11
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• 2022

Genetic associations have been quantified using a number of statistical measures. Entropy-based mutual information may be one of the more direct ways of estimating the association, in the sense that it does not depend on the parametrization. For this purpose, both the entropy and conditional entropy of the phenotype distribution should be obtained. Quantitative traits, however, do not usually allow an exact evaluation of entropy. The estimation of entropy needs a probability density function, which can be approximated by kernel density estimation. We have investigated the proper sequence of procedures for combining the kernel density estimation and entropy estimation with a probability density function in order to calculate mutual information. Genotypes and their interactions were constructed to set the conditions for conditional entropy. Extensive simulation data created using three types of generating functions were analyzed using two different kernels as well as two types of multifactor dimensionality reduction and another probability density approximation method called m-spacing. The statistical power in terms of correct detection rates was compared. Using kernels was found to be most useful when the trait distributions were more complex than simple normal or gamma distributions. A full-scale genomic dataset was explored to identify associations using the 2-h oral glucose tolerance test results and γ-glutamyl transpeptidase levels as phenotypes. Clearly distinguishable single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and interacting SNP pairs associated with these phenotypes were found and listed with empirical p-values.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.79-86
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• 2022

Recently, the amount of maintenance is increasing due to the aging of power facilities, but the budget is constrained. Therefore, the importance of asset management that selects replacement priorities based on the failure probability and enhances investment effects is increasing. Because the number of distribution transformers is very large, the proportion of investment cost is very high. Therefore, it is important to select the investment priority by evaluating the reliable remaining life based on the failure probability. This paper evaluates the statistical expected life using the failure data of distribution transformers for the last 11 years and the current operation data. The hazard rate of distribution transformer and MV cable was compared with each other and the adequacy of early failure removal was reviewed and the statistical expected life corresponding to the cumulative failure probability B3% was calculated.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.309-323
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• 2024

The gust factor and turbulence intensity are two crucial parameters that characterize the properties of turbulence. In tropical cyclones (TCs), these parameters exhibit significant variability, yet there is a lack of established formulas to account for their probabilistic characteristics with consideration of their inherent connection. On this condition, a probabilistic analysis of gust factors and turbulence intensities of TCs is conducted based on fourteen sets of wind data collected at the Sutong Cable-stayed Bridge site. Initially, the turbulence intensities and gust factors of recorded data are computed, followed by an analysis of their probability densities across different ranges categorized by mean wind speed. The Gaussian, lognormal, and generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions are employed to fit the measured probability densities, with subsequent evaluation of their effectiveness. The Gumbel distribution, which is a specific instance of the GEV distribution, has been identified as an optimal choice for probabilistic characterizations of turbulence intensity and gust factor in TCs. The corresponding empirical models are then established through curve fitting. By utilizing the Gumbel distribution as a template, the nexus between the probability density functions of turbulence intensity and gust factor is built, leading to the development of a generalized probabilistic model that statistically describe turbulence intensity and gust factor in TCs. Finally, these empirical models are validated using measured data and compared with suggestions recommended by specifications.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.462-469
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• 2023

In this study, we propose a method for evaluating the risk of collision between ships to support determination on the risk of collision in a situation in which ships encounter each other and to prevent collision accidents. Because several uncertainties are involved in the navigation of a ship, must be considered when evaluating the risk of collision. We apply the Dempster-Shafer theory to manage this uncertainty and evaluate the collision risk of each target vessel in real time. The distance at the closest point approach (DCPA), time to the closest point approach (TCPA), distance from another vessel, relative bearing, and velocity ratio are used as evaluation factors for ship collision risk. The basic probability assignments (BPAs) calculated by membership functions for each evaluation factor are fused through the combination rule of the Dempster-Shafer theory. As a result of the experiment using automatic identification system (AIS) data collected in situations where ships actually encounter each other, the suitability of evaluation was verified. By evaluating the risk of collision in real time in encounter situations between ships, collision accidents caused by human errora can be prevented. This is expected to be used for vessel traffic service systems and collision avoidance systems for autonomous ships.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.153-172
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• 2009

Developing foreign fishing ground executed in various uncertainty such as fishing price, oil price, exchange rate. But traditional economic evaluation method, CVP(Cost-Volume-Profit) analysis doesn't consider uncertainty of foreign fishing ground. So we need new approach about economic evaluation that can take into account uncertainty. This study focus on the economic evaluation about experimental survey of tuna fishing grounds in the north pacific ocean by sensitive analysis and simulation. The results of the economic evaluation can be summarized as follows. First, when we take it for granted that the other uncertainty factors except for each fishing price, oil price, and exchange rate are constant. CVP gross sales has positive relation to the increasing rate of oil price, exchange rate(W/$) and negative relation to the increasing rate of fishing price and exchange rate(W/${\yen}$). Second, when we are supposing that fishing price, oil price, and exchange rate are followed. the probability of less than CVP gross sales is A ship(48.87%), B ship(49.64%), C ship(50.55%). Consequently, the economic evaluation by sensitive analysis and simulation is more useful tool than CVP(Cost-Volume-Profit) analysis under uncertainty.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.631-647
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• 2015

Engineers may encounter unpredictable cavities, sinkholes and karst conduits while tunneling in karst area, and water inrush disaster frequently occurs and endanger the construction safety, resulting in huge casualties and economic loss. Therefore, an optimal classification method based on grey system theory (GST) is established and applied to accurately predict the occurrence probability of water inrush. Considering the weights of evaluation indices, an improved formula is applied to calculate the grey relational grade. Two evaluation indices systems are proposed for risk assessment of water inrush in design stage and construction stage, respectively, and the evaluation indices are quantitatively graded according to four risk grades. To verify the accuracy and feasibility of optimal classification method, comparisons of the evaluation results derived from the aforementioned method and attribute synthetic evaluation system are made. Furthermore, evaluation of engineering practice is carried through with the Xiakou Tunnel as a case study, and the evaluation result is generally in good agreement with the field-observed result. This risk assessment methodology provides a powerful tool with which engineers can systematically evaluate the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels.

• Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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• 2000.10a
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• pp.440-447
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• 2000

In order to evaluate the cost effectiveness of seismic isolation for bridges in low and moderate seismic region, a method of calculation minimum life-cycle cost of seismic-isolated bridges under specific acceleration level and soil condition is developed. Input ground motion is modeled as spectral density function compatible with response spectrum for combination of acceleration coefficient and site coefficient. Failure probability is calculated by spectrum analysis based on random vibration theories to simplify repetitive calculations in the minimization procedure. Ductility of piers and its effects on cost effectiveness are considered by stochastic linearization method. Cost function and cost effectiveness index are defined by taking into consideration the characteristics of seismic isolated bridges. Limit states for calculation of failure probability are defined on superstructure, isolator and pier, respectively. The results of example design and analysis show that seismic isolation is more cost-effective in low and moderate seismic region than in high seismic region.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.58-64
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• 1998

An analysis method for the reliability of ceramic structures subjected to thermal shocks is presented. Flaws with the size of given probability distribution function are assumed to be distributed at random with a certain density per unit volume in the structures. Criterions for crack instability are derived for brittle solids under general thermal stresses. A probabilistic failure model is presented to study the probability of crack instability for brittle solids containing cracks with uncertain size. The reliabilities of brittle structures are evaluated based on the weakest-link hypothesis, which states that a structure fails when the cracks in any differential volume become unstable. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the application of the proposed method.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.988-992
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• 2011

The buckling characteristics of the continuous welded rail track(CWR) is uncertainly varied by many influence factors, such as rail temperature, operating conditions of a train and maintenance of the track etc. Therefore, applying the probabilistic approach method is essential to rationally consider uncertainty and randomness of the various parameters that affect the track buckling. In this study, the probabilistic approach analysis was carried out and the results were compared with the deterministic approach using the buckling probability evaluation system of CWR tracks developed by our research team. From the comparison, it was identified that a probabilistic approach can quantitatively assess the reliability of the CWR tracks based on failure probability and can be used as a tool for decision making in track design, maintenance and operating etc.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.571-577
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• 2012

Modules that consist of software are respectively coded in the early development phase and the modules are unified as a software. After unification, the software is repeatedly tested with a given taskset (the set of module tasks that are tested simultaneously) until a required performance level is satisfied. In this paper, we expand the one-module software debugging model of Jang and Lee (2011) to a multi-module debugging model and derive the taskset completion probability and the mean of the completed tasksets under the assumption that the processing times of module tasks given in a taskset are mutually dependent.