• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.10-18
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• 2007

The importance of conducting necessary studies on grid reliability evaluation has become increasingly important in recent years due to the number of blackout events occurring throughout the world. Additionally, quantitative evaluation of transmission system reliability is very important in a competitive electricity environment. The reason behind this is that successful operation of an electric power company under a deregulated electricity market depends on transmission system reliability management. The results of many case studies for the Korea Electric Power Cooperation (KEPCO) system using the Transmission Reliability Evaluation for Large-Scale Systems (TRELSS) Version 6.2 are illustrated in this paper. The TRELSS was developed by EPRI and Southern Company Services Inc. This paper presents the reliability analysis of KEPCO system expansion planning by using the TRELSS program.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제50권8호
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• pp.1246-1254
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• 2018

The importance of performing Level 3 probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) along with a general interest in assessing multi-unit risk has been sharply increasing after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident. However, relatively few studies on multi-unit Level 3 PSA have been performed to date, reflecting limited scenarios of multi-unit accidents with higher priority. The major difficulty to carry out a multi-unit Level 3 PSA lies in the exponentially increasing number of multi-unit accident combinations, as different source terms can be released from each NPP unit; indeed, building consequence models for the astronomical number of accident scenarios is simply impractical. In this study, a new approach has been developed that employs the look-up table method to cover every multi-unit accident scenario. Consequence results for each scenario can be found on the table, established with a practical amount of effort, and can be matched to the frequency of the scenario. Preliminary application to a six-unit NPP site was carried out, where it was found that the difference between full-coverage and cut-off cases could be considerably high and therefore influence the total risk. Additional studies should be performed to fine tune the details and overcome the limitations of the approach.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 4th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management Organized by the University of New South Wales
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• pp.534-541
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• 2011

Risk evaluation approaches for bidding on international construction projects are typically partitioned into three stages: country selection, project classification, and bid-cost evaluation. However, previous studies are frequently under attack in that they have several crucial limitations: 1) a dearth of studies about country selection risk tailored for the overseas construction market at a corporate level; 2) no consideration of uncertainties for input variable per se; 3) less probabilistic approaches in estimating a range of cost variance; and 4) less inclusion of covariance impacts. This study thus suggests a three-staged risk evaluation model to resolve these inherent problems. In the first stage, a country portfolio model that maximizes the expected construction market growth rate and profit rate while decreasing market uncertainty is formulated using multi-objective genetic analysis. Following this, probabilistic approaches for screening bad projects are suggested through applying various data mining methods such as discriminant logistic regression, neural network, C5.0, and support vector machine. For the last stage, the cost overrun prediction model is simulated for determining a reasonable bid cost, while considering non-parametric distribution, effects of systematic risks, and the firm's specific capability accrued in a given country. Through the three consecutive models, this study verifies that international construction risk can be allocated, reduced, and projected to some degree, thereby contributing to sustaining stable profits and revenues in both the short-term and the long-term perspective.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.1127-1135
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• 2012

연관성 규칙 기법은 대용량데이터베이스에 있는 항목들 간의 관련성을 수치화 하는 것으로 데이터 마이닝 기법 중에서는 가장 많이 활용되고 있다. 연관성 규칙을 탐사하기 위한 연관성 규칙 평가 기준에는 지지도, 신뢰도, 향상도 등이 있다. 이들 중에서 가장 중심이 되는 신뢰도는 비대칭적 측도일 뿐만 아니라 항상 양의 값만을 취하고 있어서 항목 간에 연관성 규칙을 생성하는 데 여러가지 문제가 존재한다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 본 논문에서는 확률적 흥미도 측도 기반, 특히 주변 비율을 고려하지 않은 유사성 측도를 연관성 평가 기준으로 적용하는 방안에 대해 연구하였다. 예제에 의한 비교를 통하여 Yule과 Michael의 유사성 계수와 Pearson의 파이 계수는 신뢰도와 동일하게 연관성의 정도를 파악할 수 있는 동시에 부호를 포함하고 있어서 연관성의 방향도 알 수 있었으나, 카이 제곱 통계량 기반 측도들은 항상 양의 값만 나타날 뿐만 아니라 신뢰도와는 변화하는 양상이 다르다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제23권5호
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• pp.412-417
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• 2013

태양광 발전 시스템의 해석적 모델링은 시스템의 동특성을 예측하거나 고장검출 및 진단 등과 같은 고급 공학 기술에 중요하게 적용할 수 있어 최근 많은 각광을 받고 있다. 본 논문은 대용량 학습 데이터를 갖는 태양광 발전 시스템에 대한 확률론적 모델링을 제시한다. 우선 태양광 일사량과 온도 입력 변수에 대한 태양광 시스템의 출력 전력과의 입출력 함수관계를 정의한다. 이 함수관계를 바탕으로 세 확률변수(일사량, 온도, 전력)에 대하여 조건부 확률 식으로 표현한다. 조건부 확률 분포 추정은 대용량 데이터 시스템에 적합한, 전체 표본 데이터 수 대비 관련 변수의 경우의 수에 대한 비율로 나타내었다. 추정한 확률분포를 통해 평균값 이론을 적용하여 시스템의 출력을 추정하게 된다. 본 논문에서 제안한 모델링 기법은 두 태양광 발전 단지의 사례 연구를 통해 성능을 검증하였다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제10권8호
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• pp.3689-3700
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• 2016

It is not practically feasible to apply hardware-based fault-tolerant schemes, such as hardware replication, in mobile devices. Therefore, software-based fault-tolerance techniques, such as checkpoint and rollback schemes, are required. In checkpoint and rollback schemes, the optimal checkpoint interval should be applied to obtain the best performance. Most previous studies focused on minimizing the expected execution time or response time for completing a given task. Currently, most mobile applications run in real-time environments. Therefore, it is extremely essential for mobile devices to employ optimal checkpoint intervals as determined by the real-time constraints of tasks. In this study, we tackle the problem of determining the optimal inter-checkpoint interval of checkpoint and rollback schemes to maximize the deadline meet ratio in real-time systems and to build a probabilistic cost model. From this cost model, we can numerically find the optimal checkpoint interval using mathematical tools. The performance of the proposed solution is evaluated using analytical estimates.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.439-445
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• 2017

Plunging breaker slamming pressures on vertical or sloping sea dikes are one of the most severe and dangerous loads that sea dike structures can suffer. Many studies have investigated the impact forces caused by breaking waves for maritime structures including sea dikes and most predictions of the breaker forces are based on empirical or semi-empirical formulae calibrated from laboratory experiments. However, the wave breaking mechanism is complex and more research efforts are still needed to improve the accuracy in predicting breaker forces. This study proposes a semi-empirical formula, which is based on impulse-momentum relation, to calculate the slamming pressure due to plunging wave breaking on a sloping sea dike. Compared with some measured slamming pressure data in two literature, the calculation results by the new formula show reasonable agreements. Also, by analysing probability distribution function of wave heights, the proposed formula can be converted into a probabilistic expression form for convenience only.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.301-317
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• 2011

Statistical and probabilistic behaviors of fibers forming fiber webs of all kinds are of great significance in the determination of the uniformity and physical properties of the webs commonly found in many industrial products such as filters, membranes and non-woven fabrics. However, in studying the spatial geometry of the webs the observations must be theoretically as well as experimentally confined within a specified unit area. This paper provides a general theory and framework for computer simulation for quantifying the fiber segments bounded by the unit area in consideration of the "edge effects" resulting from the truncated length segments within the boundary. The probability density function and the first and second moments of the length segments found within the counting region were derived by properly defining the seeding region and counting region.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제59권9호
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• pp.1507-1513
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• 2010

The $CO_2$ emission can be decreased due to freedom of generator maintenance scheduling(GMS). This paper proposes assessment of $CO_2$ emission considering generator maintenance scheduling(GMS) and evaluates effect of the GMS on $CO_2$ emission. And also, this paper assesses the $CO_2$ emission and the probabilistic production cost simulation of nuclear and thermal power generators considering operation of hydro and pumped generator. The minimum reliability criterion level satisfied production cost minimization function model is used in this paper. The practicality and effectiveness of the proposed approach are demonstrated by simulation studies for a real size power system in Korea in 2010.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1999년도 하계학술대회 논문집 C
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• pp.1340-1343
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• 1999

This Paper Presents a new analytic load decrement method for the evaluation of avoided generation costs of independent power producers (IPPs), named as probabilistic load decrement method. Unlike conventional load decrement methods, the proposed method exactly consider the random outage characteristic of a generating unit, economic dispatch order, and the resulting loss of load probability. Therefore, we can Provide the exact generation avoided costs of an IPP by applying the developed method. In the case studies, we have shown the correctness and effectiveness of the method, and compared with conventional load decrement methods.