• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.461-470
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• 2014

This paper presents a probabilistic power flow (PPF) analysis method for distribution network incorporating the randomness and correlation of photovoltaic (PV) generation. Based on the multivariate kernel density estimation theory, the probabilistic model of PV generation is proposed without any assumption of theoretical parametric distribution, which can accurately capture not only the randomness but also the correlation of PV resources at adjacent locations. The PPF method is developed by combining the proposed PV model and Monte Carlo technique to evaluate the influence of the randomness and correlation of PV generation on the performance of distribution networks. The historical power output data of three neighboring PV generators in Oregon, USA, and 34-bus/69-bus radial distribution networks are used to demonstrate the correctness, effectiveness, and application of the proposed PV model and PPF method.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.15-38
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• 2010

In order to predict the shear strengths of reinforced concrete beams, many deterministic models have been developed based on rules of mechanics and on experimental test results. While the constant and variable angle truss models are known to provide reliable bases and to give reasonable predictions for the shear strengths of members with shear reinforcement, in the case of members without shear reinforcement, even advanced models with complicated procedures may show lack of accuracy or lead to fairly different predictions from other similar models. For this reason, many research efforts have been made for more accurate predictions, which resulted in important recent publications. This paper develops probabilistic shear strength models for reinforced concrete beams without shear reinforcement based on deterministic shear strength models, understanding of shear transfer mechanisms and influential parameters, and experimental test results reported in the literature. Using a Bayesian parameter estimation method, the biases of base deterministic models are identified as algebraic functions of input parameters and the errors of the developed models remaining after the bias-correction are quantified in a stochastic manner. The proposed probabilistic models predict the shear strengths with improved accuracy and help incorporate the model uncertainties into vulnerability estimations and risk-quantified designs.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.97-118
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• 2019

Based on Nonlinear Finite Element Analysis (NFEA), this paper focuses on the bi-axial ultimate strength of typical bottom structures under corrosion. On one hand, uniform and not simultaneous corrosion across different structures is introduced, and surrogate models by Gaussian Process (GP) are built for both longitudinal and transverse cases individually, and corresponding probabilistic characteristics are investigated; meanwhile, corrosion effects on interaction between bi-axial stresses at ultimate state are studied. On the other hand, non-uniform localized pitting corrosion of normally distributed circular shapes is introduced, and different pitting corrosion densities are considered; structural bi-axial ultimate strengths under pitting corrosion are studied, and the results are compared with that from equivalent uniform corrosion; the probabilistic characteristics of structural ultimate strength in life cycle are studied; finally, the ultimate strength under randomly distributed pitting corrosion is compared with results from normally distributed pitting and uniform corrosion under various boundary conditions.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.449-460
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• 2022

Safe underground construction in a rock mass requires adequate ground investigation and effective determination of rock conditions. The estimation of rock mass behavior is difficult, because rock masses are innately anisotropic and heterogeneous at different scales and are affected by various environmental factors. Quantitative rock mass classification systems, such as the Q-system and rock mass rating, are widely used for characterization and engineering design. The measurement of rock classification parameters is subjective and can vary among observers, resulting in questionable accuracy. Geophysical investigation methods, such as seismic surveys, have also been used for ground characterization. Torsional shear wave propagation characteristics in cylindrical rods are equal to that in an infinite media. A probabilistic quantitative relationship between the Q-value and shear wave velocity is thus investigated considering long-wavelength wave propagation in equivalent continuum jointed rock masses. Individual Q-system parameters are correlated with stress-dependent shear wave velocities in jointed rocks using experimental and numerical methods. The relationship between the Q-value and the shear wave velocity is normalized using a defined reference condition. This relationship is further improved using probabilistic analysis to remove unrealistic data and to suggest a range of Q-values for a given wave velocity. The proposed probabilistic Q-value estimation is then compared with field measurements and cross-hole seismic test data to verify its applicability.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 1990.04a
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• pp.90-95
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• 1990

It is widely recognized that the strengths of reinforced concrete members have random characteristics due to the variability of the mechanical properties of concrete and steel, the dimensional error as well as incorrect placement of reinforcing bars. Statistical models of the variabilities of strengths of reinforced concrete members, therefore, need to be developed to evaluate the safety level implied in current practices. Based on the probabilistic models of basic factors affecting the R.C. member strengths, in this study, the probabilistic characteristics of member resistance have been studied through Monte Carlo simulation.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.437-446
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• 2011

Siting criteria for nuclear power plants require that faults be characterized as to their potential for generating earthquakes, or that the absence of the potential for these occurrences be demonstrated. Because the definition of active faults in Korea has been applied by the deterministic method, which depends on the numerical age of fault movement, the possibility of inherent uncertainties exists in determining the maximum earthquake from the fault sources for seismic design. In an attempt to overcome these problems this study suggests new criteria and a probabilistic quantitative diagnostic procedure that could estimate whether a fault is capable of generating earthquakes in the near future.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 2002.04b
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• pp.424-426
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• 2002

PATM(Probabilistic Abstract Timed Machine) [1]은 시스템의 진행 중 다양한 환경 요인에 의해 발생하는 불확실성을 명세하기 위해 개발된 정형 명세 기법이다. PATM으로 명세한 시스템은 도달성 그래프를 분석하게 된다. 본 논문에서는 다양한 물리적 환경 요소를 고려하여 시스템을 분석하는 과정에서 발생하는 실행모델의 복잡도를 줄이기 위한 방법을 제시한다.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.154-159
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• 2004

In this study, in order to perform more efficiently reliability design and integrity assessment of structural members, the relational database management program on the engineering plastics was constructed. This program contained 476 grades for 14 kinds of the engineering plastics and was developed using MS-access and MS-visualbasic. This program consists of 3 modules; search condition, probabilistic characteristics of material property, evaluation of P-S-N curve. We perform fatigue test for probabilistic durability analysis and this results input the database program to estimate P-S-N.

• Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.67-83
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• 1995

The notion of probabilistic metric spaces (or statistical metric spaces) was introduced and studied by Menger [19] which is a generalization of metric space, and the study of these spaces was expanede rapidly with the pioneering works of Schweizer-Sklar [25]-[26]. The theory of probabilistic metric spaces is of fundamental importance in probabilistic function analysis. For the detailed discussions of these spaces and their applications, we refer to [9], [10], [28], [30]-[32], [36] and [39].

• Journal of Industrial Technology
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• v.22 no.B
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• pp.231-240
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• 2002

The rational method of estimating peak flow is used largely for the simplicity. But the accuracy of rational method is not easy to estimate, because the rational method is analyzed by the deterministic point or view and the runoff coefficients of the rational method are proposed from other countries. In this study the rational method is analyzed by the probabilistic way to be a more reliable method. The runoff coefficient is regarded to parameter that changes the probabilistic rainfall to the peak flow. The runoff coeffient for each return period is analyzed to be a reliable index which is used to estimate the peak flow of ungauged natural catchments.