• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic Analysis

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Microstructure, Tensile Strength and Probabilistic Fatigue Life Evaluation of Gray Cast Iron (회주철의 미세구조와 인장거동 분석 및 확률론적 피로수명평가)

  • Sung, Yong Hyeon;Han, Seung-Wook;Choi, Nak-Sam
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.41 no.8
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    • pp.721-728
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    • 2017
  • High-grade gray cast iron (HCI350) was prepared by adding Cr, Mo and Cu to the gray cast iron (GC300). Their microstructure, mechanical properties and fatigue strength were studied. Cast iron was made from round bar and plate-type castings, and was cut and polished to measure the percentage of each microstructure. The size of flake graphite decreased due to additives, while the structure of high density pearlite increased in volume percentage improving the tensile strength and fatigue strength. Based on the fatigue life data obtained from the fatigue test results, the probability - stress - life (P-S-N) curve was calculated using the 2-parameter Weibull distribution to which the maximum likelihood method was applied. The P-S-N curve showed that the fatigue strength of HCI350 was significantly improved and the dispersion of life data was lower than that of GC300. However, the fatigue life according to fatigue stress alleviation increased further. Data for reliability life design was presented by quantitatively showing the allowable stress value for the required life cycle number using the calculated P-S-N curve.

Seismic Fragility Analysis based on Material Uncertainties of I-Shape Curved Steel Girder Bridge under Gyeongju Earthquake (강재 재료 불확실성을 고려한 I형 곡선 거더 교량의 경주 지진 기반 지진 취약도 분석)

  • Jeon, Juntai;Ju, Bu-Seog;Son, Ho-Young
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.747-754
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: Seismic safety evaluation of a curved bridge must be performed since the curved bridges exhibit the complex behavior rather than the straight bridges, due to geometrical characteristics. In order to conduct the probabilistic seismic assessment of the curved bridge, Seismic fragility evaluation was performed using the uncertainty of the steel material properties of a curved bridge girde, in this study. Method: The finite element (FE) model using ABAQUS platform of the curved bridge girder was constructed, and the statistical parameters of steel materials presented in previous studies were used. 100 steel material models were sampled using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. As an input ground motion in this study, seismic fragility evaluation was performed by the normalized scale of the Gyeongju earthquake to 0.2g, 0.5g, 0.8g, 1.2g, and 1.5g. Result: As a result of the seismic fragility evaluation of the curved girder, it was found that there was no failure up to 0.03g corresponding to the limit state of allowable stress design, but the failure was started from 0.11g associated with using limit state design. Conclusion: In this study, seismic fragility evaluation was performed considering steel materials uncertainties. Further it must be considered the seismic fragility of the curved bridge using both the uncertainties of input motions and material properties.

A Study on Evaluation of Slope Stability and Range of Rockfall Hazard of Daljeon-ri Columnar Joint in Pohang, Korea (천연기념물 제415호 포항 달전리 주상절리의 사면안정성 평가 및 낙석 위험 범위 설정)

  • Kim, Jae Hwan;Kang, Mu Hwan;Kong, Dal-Yong;Jwa, Yong-Joo
    • Journal of Conservation Science
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.505-515
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we evaluated the slope stability of the Pohang Daljeon-ri columnar joint (Natural Monuments # 415) and calculated the maximum energy, jumping height and moving distance of rockfalls using a simulation. Based on the results, we established the range of rockfall risk. The slopes of the Pohang Daljeon-ri columnar joint have dip directions of 93.79°, 131.99°, 165.54° and 259.84° from left (SW) to right (NE). Furthermore, they have a fan-like shape. The Pohang Daljeon-ri columnar joints are divided into four sections depending on the dip direction. The measurement results of the discontinuous face show that zone 1 is 125, zone 2 is 261, zone 3 is 262, zone 4 is 43. The results of slope stability analyses for each section using a stereographic projection method correspond to the range of planar and toppling failure. Although it is difficult to diagnose the type of failure, risk evaluation of currently falling rocks requires further focus. The maximum movement distance of a rockfall in the simulation was approximately 66 m and the rockfall risk range was the entire area under slope. In addition, it is difficult to forecast where a rock will fall as it rolls in various directions due to topographic factors. Thus, the installation of measures to prevent falling is suggested to secure the stability based on the results of the rockfall simulations and its probabilistic analysis.

A Study on the Research Topics and Trends in Korean Journal of Remote Sensing: Focusing on Natural & Environmental Disasters (토픽모델링을 이용한 대한원격탐사학회지의 연구주제 분류 및 연구동향 분석: 자연·환경재해 분야를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Taeyong;Park, Hyemin;Heo, Junyong;Yang, Minjune
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.6_2
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    • pp.1869-1880
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    • 2021
  • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing (KJRS), leading the field of remote sensing and GIS in South Korea for over 37 years, has published interdisciplinary research papers. In this study, we performed the topic modeling based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), a probabilistic generative model, to identify the research topics and trends using 1) the whole articles, and 2) specific articles related to natural and environmental disasters published in KJRS by analyzing titles, keywords, and abstracts. The results of LDA showed that 4 topics('Polar', 'Hydrosphere', 'Geosphere', and 'Atmosphere') were identified in the whole articles and the topic of 'Polar' was dominant among them (linear slope=3.51 × 10-3, p<0.05) over time. For the specific articles related to natural and environmental disasters, the optimal number of topics were 7 ('Marine pollution', 'Air pollution', 'Volcano', 'Wildfire', 'Flood', 'Drought', and 'Heavy rain') and the topic of 'Air pollution' was dominant (linear slope=2.61 × 10-3, p<0.05) over time. The results from this study provide the history and insight into natural and environmental disasters in KRJS with multidisciplinary researchers.

Proposal of Early-Warning Criteria for Highway Debris Flow Using Rainfall Frequency (1): Proposal of Rainfall Criteria (확률 강우량을 이용한 고속도로 토석류 조기경보기준 제안 (1) : 강우기준 제안)

  • Choi, Jaesoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we propose rainfall frequency criteria for the development of early-warning system based on the evaluation of the highway debris flow that includes the contents of the rainfall recurrence cycle. The rainfall criterion was recommended based on the results of previous researches and the recommended rainfall criterion was 1 hour, 6 hours, and 3 days. At this time, the study subjects were located in Gangwon area and the probability rainfall of 8 stations in Gangwon area was collected. Also, the probabilistic distribution of the 1 hour, 6 hour, and 3 day rainfall criteria to be used for the early warning for the highway debris flow in Kangwon area was estimated through the probability analysis. In addition, we analyzed the correlation between 3 types of rainfall criteria selected from the rainfall data and the actual destructive damages of debris flow at 12 points in 7 lines of Gangwon highways. At this time, the rainfall criterion on the probability distribution was divided into an average value and a lower limit value. As a result of the review, it was found that the case of using the lower limit value of the rainfall according to the recurrence intervalwell simulates the situation of actual debris flow hazards.

A Study on the Effects of Reading Education Using Book-Coding (북코딩의 독서교육 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Ji, Hyoun-Ah;Cho, Miah
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.145-166
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    • 2021
  • The study was aimed at verifying the effectiveness of Book-Coding reading education as a reader activity of older elementary school children at a time when high-dimensional thinking abilities were formed. To this end, 30 fifth-grade children of N Elementary School in N-si, Gyeonggi-do, comprised of 15 students from a reading education program using Book-Coding, and 15 students from a reading comprehension program, and applied the reading education program over a total of 12 sessions. The main results of the study are summarized as follows. First, when the effects of the convergence reading education program using Book-Coding on the logical thinking ability of the students in the upper grades in the elementary school were analyzed, all the six sub-factors of logical thinking ability, that is, conservation logic, proportional logic, variable controlling logic, probabilistic logic, correlational inference logic, and combinational logic, were proved to have statistically more meaningful difference than the group writing a book report. Second, the analysis result of the influence of the convergence reading education program using Book-Coding on the creativity of the students in the upper grades of the elementary school showed that all the 13 elements of curiosity, persistence, effectiveness, independence, adventurousness, openness, knowledge, imagination, originality, sensitivity, fluency, flexibility, and accuracy were statistically meaningfully different compared to the book report group. Third, when it was analyzed how the convergence reading education program using Book-Coding affected the creative personality of the elementary school students, all the six factors of curiosity, task commitment, independence, awareness of risk, and openness of thinking, and aesthetics were found out to have a statistically more meaningful difference than the group that wrote a book report.

A study on prediction method for flood risk using LENS and flood risk matrix (국지 앙상블자료와 홍수위험매트릭스를 이용한 홍수위험도 예측 방법 연구)

  • Choi, Cheonkyu;Kim, Kyungtak;Choi, Yunseok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.9
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    • pp.657-668
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    • 2022
  • With the occurrence of localized heavy rain while river flow has increased, both flow and rainfall cause riverside flood damages. As the degree of damage varies according to the level of social and economic impact, it is required to secure sufficient forecast lead time for flood response in areas with high population and asset density. In this study, the author established a flood risk matrix using ensemble rainfall runoff modeling and evaluated its applicability in order to increase the damage reduction effect by securing the time required for flood response. The flood risk matrix constructs the flood damage impact level (X-axis) using flood damage data and predicts the likelihood of flood occurrence (Y-axis) according to the result of ensemble rainfall runoff modeling using LENS rainfall data and as well as probabilistic forecasting. Therefore, the author introduced a method for determining the impact level of flood damage using historical flood damage data and quantitative flood damage assessment methods. It was compared with the existing flood warning data and the damage situation at the flood warning points in the Taehwa River Basin and the Hyeongsan River Basin in the Nakdong River Region. As a result, the analysis showed that it was possible to predict the time and degree of flood risk from up to three days in advance. Hence, it will be helpful for damage reduction activities by securing the lead time for flood response.

Development of System-level Seismic Fragility Methodology for Probabilistic Seismic Performance Evaluation of Steel Composite Box Girder Bridges (강상자형 합성거더교의 확률론적 내진성능 평가를 위한 시스템-수준 지진취약도 방법의 개발)

  • Sina Kong;Yeeun Kim;Jiho Moon;Jong-Keol Song
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.173-184
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    • 2023
  • Presently, the general seismic fragility evaluation method for a bridge system composed of member elements with different nonlinear behaviors against strong earthquakes has been to evaluate at the element-level. This study aims to develop a system-level seismic fragility evaluation method that represents a structural system. Because the seismic behavior of bridges is generally divided into transverse and longitudinal directions, this study evaluated the system-level seismic fragility in both directions separately. The element-level seismic fragility evaluation in the longitudinal direction was performed for piers, bridge bearings, pounding, abutments, and unseating. Because pounding, abutment, and unseating do not affect the transverse directional damages, the element-level seismic fragility evaluation was limited to piers and bridge bearings. Seismic analysis using nonlinear models of various structural members was performed using the OpenSEES program. System-level seismic fragility was evaluated assuming that damage between element-levels was serially connected. Pier damage was identified to have a dominant effect on system-level seismic fragility than other element-level damages. In other words, the most vulnerable element-level seismic fragility has the most dominant effect on the system-level seismic fragility.

Reliability-Based Design Optimization for a Vertical-Type Breakwater with an Emphasis on Sliding, Overturn, and Collapse Failure (직립식 방파제 신뢰성 기반 최적 설계: 활동, 전도, 지반 훼손으로 인한 붕괴 파괴를 중심으로)

  • Yong Jun Cho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.50-60
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    • 2024
  • To promote the application of reliability-based design within the Korean coastal engineering community, the author conducted reliability analyses and optimized the design of a vertical-type breakwater, considering multiple limit states in the seas off of Pusan and Gunsan - two representative ports in Korea. In this process, rather than relying on design waves of a specific return period, the author intentionally avoided such constraints. Instead, the author characterized the uncertainties associated with wave force, lift force, and overturning moment - key factors significantly influencing the integrity of a vertical-type breakwater. This characterization was achieved by employing a probabilistic model derived from the frequency analysis results of long-term in-situ wave data. The limit state of the vertical-type breakwater encompassed sliding, overturning, and collapse failure, with the close interrelation between wave force, lift force, and moment described using the Nataf joint probability distribution. Simulation results indicate, as expected, that considering only sliding failure underestimates the failure probability. Furthermore, it was shown that the failure probability of vertical-type breakwaters cannot be consistently secured using design waves with a specific return period. In contrast, breakwaters optimally designed to meet the reliability index requirement of 𝛽-3.5 to 4 consistently achieve a consistent failure probability across all sea areas.

Semi-automated Tractography Analysis using a Allen Mouse Brain Atlas : Comparing DTI Acquisition between NEX and SNR (알렌 마우스 브레인 아틀라스를 이용한 반자동 신경섬유지도 분석 : 여기수와 신호대잡음비간의 DTI 획득 비교)

  • Im, Sang-Jin;Baek, Hyeon-Man
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.157-168
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    • 2020
  • Advancements in segmentation methodology has made automatic segmentation of brain structures using structural images accurate and consistent. One method of automatic segmentation, which involves registering atlas information from template space to subject space, requires a high quality atlas with accurate boundaries for consistent segmentation. The Allen Mouse Brain Atlas, which has been widely accepted as a high quality reference of the mouse brain, has been used in various segmentations and can provide accurate coordinates and boundaries of mouse brain structures for tractography. Through probabilistic tractography, diffusion tensor images can be used to map comprehensive neuronal network of white matter pathways of the brain. Comparisons between neural networks of mouse and human brains showed that various clinical tests on mouse models were able to simulate disease pathology of human brains, increasing the importance of clinical mouse brain studies. However, differences between brain size of human and mouse brain has made it difficult to achieve the necessary image quality for analysis and the conditions for sufficient image quality such as a long scan time makes using live samples unrealistic. In order to secure a mouse brain image with a sufficient scan time, an Ex-vivo experiment of a mouse brain was conducted for this study. Using FSL, a tool for analyzing tensor images, we proposed a semi-automated segmentation and tractography analysis pipeline of the mouse brain and applied it to various mouse models. Also, in order to determine the useful signal-to-noise ratio of the diffusion tensor image acquired for the tractography analysis, images with various excitation numbers were compared.