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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2022.55.9.657

A study on prediction method for flood risk using LENS and flood risk matrix  

Choi, Cheonkyu (Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology)
Kim, Kyungtak (Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology)
Choi, Yunseok (Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.55, no.9, 2022 , pp. 657-668 More about this Journal
Abstract
With the occurrence of localized heavy rain while river flow has increased, both flow and rainfall cause riverside flood damages. As the degree of damage varies according to the level of social and economic impact, it is required to secure sufficient forecast lead time for flood response in areas with high population and asset density. In this study, the author established a flood risk matrix using ensemble rainfall runoff modeling and evaluated its applicability in order to increase the damage reduction effect by securing the time required for flood response. The flood risk matrix constructs the flood damage impact level (X-axis) using flood damage data and predicts the likelihood of flood occurrence (Y-axis) according to the result of ensemble rainfall runoff modeling using LENS rainfall data and as well as probabilistic forecasting. Therefore, the author introduced a method for determining the impact level of flood damage using historical flood damage data and quantitative flood damage assessment methods. It was compared with the existing flood warning data and the damage situation at the flood warning points in the Taehwa River Basin and the Hyeongsan River Basin in the Nakdong River Region. As a result, the analysis showed that it was possible to predict the time and degree of flood risk from up to three days in advance. Hence, it will be helpful for damage reduction activities by securing the lead time for flood response.
Keywords
LENS; Flood risk matrix; Impact level; Lead time;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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