• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.37-44
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• 2015

A Bayesian nonstationary probability rainfall estimation model using the Grid method is developed. A hierarchical Bayesian framework is consisted with prior and hyper-prior distributions associated with parameters of the Gumbel distribution which is selected for rainfall extreme data. In this study, the Grid method is adopted instead of the Matropolis Hastings algorithm for random number generation since it has advantage that it can provide a thorough sampling of parameter space. This method is good for situations where the best-fit parameter values are not easily inferred a priori, and where there is a high probability of false minima. The developed model was applied to estimated target year probability rainfall using hourly rainfall data of Seoul station from 1973 to 2012. Results demonstrated that the target year estimate using nonstationary assumption is about 5~8% larger than the estimate using stationary assumption.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.49 no.3
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• pp.313-326
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• 2021

Purpose: Prior studies have sought to find antecedent to improve firm performance. However, research on compensation systems and employees' psychological mechanisms have been relatively limited. In this sense, this study has investigated the impact of compensation gap between TMT and employees on firm performance, and explored the factors that affect the above relationship. Specifically, this study analyzed the direct impact of compensation gap on firm performance. In addition, the process of compensation gap to firm performance is assumed to be significantly influenced by employees' recognized promotion system and satisfaction with TMT. Therefore, we examined moderating effects of both promotion probability and opportunity, and satisfaction with TMT on the relationship between compensation gap and firm performance. Methods: For empirical test, financial variables were collected from TS-2000 database, and moderating variables were collected form Job Planet for listed firms in Korea. We conducted hierarchical regression analysis to test hypotheses. Results: The findings of empirical analysis are as follows. First, compensation gap between TMT and employees had a positive effect on firm performance. Second, when promotion probability and opportunity was high, the effect of compensation gap on firm performance was strengthened. Third, when satisfaction with TMT was high, the positive effect of compensation gap on firm performance was also strengthened. Conclusion: Our findings have expanded prior research on human resource management and labor relation by identifying the positive role of compensation gap between TMT and employees on firm outcome. Moreover, our results also indicated that promotion probability and opportunity, and satisfaction with TMT, which has not been addressed well in previous studies, were important conditions enhancing the positive relationship between compensation gap and firm performance. Finally, this study suggest several theoretical and managerial implication with future research direction.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.743-752
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• 2004

In this paper, we develop the Bayesian model selection procedure using the reference prior for comparing two nested model such as the independent and intraclass models using the distance or divergence between the two as the basis of comparison. A suitable criterion for this is the power divergence measure as introduced by Cressie and Read(1984). Such a measure includes the Kullback -Liebler divergence measures and the Hellinger divergence measure as special cases. For this problem, the power divergence measure turns out to be a function solely of $\rho$, the intraclass correlation coefficient. Also, this function is convex, and the minimum is attained at $\rho=0$. We use reference prior for $\rho$. Due to the duality between hypothesis tests and set estimation, the hypothesis testing problem can also be solved by solving a corresponding set estimation problem. The present paper develops Bayesian method based on the Kullback-Liebler and Hellinger divergence measures, rejecting $H_0:\rho=0$ when the specified divergence measure exceeds some number d. This number d is so chosen that the resulting credible interval for the divergence measure has specified coverage probability $1-{\alpha}$. The length of such an interval is compared with the equal two-tailed credible interval and the HPD credible interval for $\rho$ with the same coverage probability which can also be inverted into acceptance regions of $H_0:\rho=0$. Example is considered where the HPD interval based on the one-at- a-time reference prior turns out to be the shortest credible interval having the same coverage probability.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.193-204
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• 1989

This paper develops a new method for reconstructing neutron flux distribution, that is based on the maximum entropy Principle in information theory. The Probability distribution that maximizes the entropy Provides the most unbiased objective Probability distribution within the known partial information. The partial information are the assembly volume-averaged neutron flux, the surface-averaged neutron fluxes and the surface-averaged neutron currents, that are the results of the nodal calculation. The flux distribution on the boundary of a fuel assembly, which is the boundary condition for the neutron diffusion equation, is transformed into the probability distribution in the entropy expression. The most objective boundary flux distribution is deduced using the results of the nodal calculation by the maximum entropy method. This boundary flux distribution is then used as the boundary condition in a procedure of the imbedded heterogeneous assembly calculation to provide detailed flux distribution. The results of the new method applied to several PWR benchmark problem assemblies show that the reconstruction errors are comparable with those of the form function methods in inner region of the assembly while they are relatively large near the boundary of the assembly. The incorporation of the surface-averaged neutron currents in the constraint information (that is not done in the present study) should provide better results.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.71-78
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• 1993

A Baysian approach is proposed is estimating the mission failure rates by criticalities. A mission failure which occurs according to a Poisson process with unknown rate is assumed to be classified as one of the criticality levels with an unknown probability. We employ the Gamma prior for the mission failure rate and the Dirichlet prior for the criticality probabilities. Posterior distributions of the mission rates by criticalities and predictive distributions of the time to failure are derived.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.17-31
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• 2002

This paper considers noninformative priors for the power law process under failure truncation. Jeffreys'priors as well as reference priors are found when one or both parameters are of interest. These priors are compared in the light of how accurately the coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals match the corresponding frequentist coverage probabilities. It is found that the reference priors have a definite edge over Jeffreys'prior in this respect.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.229-236
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• 2004

This article presents a multiple comparison ranking procedure for several products of the Poisson rates. A preference probability matrix that warrants the optimal comparison ranking is introduced. Using a Bayesian Monte Carlo method, we develop simulation-based procedure to estimate the matrix and obtain the optimal ranking via a row-sum scores method. Necessary theory and two illustrative examples are provided.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.169-177
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• 2015

We develop a model to predict typhoons in Korea. We collect data for typhoons and classify those depending on the severity level. Following a Bayesian approach, we develop a model that explains the relationship between different levels of typhoons. Through the analysis of the model, we can predict the rate of typhoons, the probability of approaching Korean peninsular, and the probability of striking Korean peninsular. We show that the uncertainty for the occurrence of various types of typhoons reduces dramatically by adaptively updating model parameters as we acquire data.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.29-37
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• 2001

In this paper, we consider the second order probability matching criterion for the ratio of the variance components under the one-way random effect model. It turns out that among all of the reference priors given in Ye(1994), the only one reference prior satisfies the second order matching criterion. Similar results are also obtained for the intraclass correlation as well.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.151-165
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• 1997

We propose a method for estimating the probability of perfect PM from successive failure times of a repairable system. The system under study is maintained preventively at periodic times, and it undergoes minimal repair at failure. We consider Brown-Proschan imperfect PM model in which the system is restored to a condition as good as new with probability P and is otherwise restored to its condition just prior to failure. We discuss the identifiability problem when the PM modes are not recorded. The expectation-maximization principle is employed to handle the incomplete data problem. We assume that the lifetime distribution belongs to a parametric family with increasing failure rate. For the two parameter Weibull lifetime distribution, we propose a specific algorithm for finding the maximum lifelihood estimates of the reliability parameters : the probability of perfect PM (P), as well as the distribution parameters. The estimation method will provide useful results for maintaining real systems.