한국경영과학회지 (Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society)

  • 제22권4호
  • /
  • Pages.151-165
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  • 1997
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  • 1225-1119(pISSN)
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  • 2733-4759(eISSN)
한국경영과학회 (The Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society)
권호 표지

Brown-Proschan 불완전 PM 모형에서 완전 PM 확률의 추정

Estimating the Probability of Perfect PM in the Brown-Proschan Imperfect PM Model

  • 발행 : 1997.12.01
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초록

We propose a method for estimating the probability of perfect PM from successive failure times of a repairable system. The system under study is maintained preventively at periodic times, and it undergoes minimal repair at failure. We consider Brown-Proschan imperfect PM model in which the system is restored to a condition as good as new with probability P and is otherwise restored to its condition just prior to failure. We discuss the identifiability problem when the PM modes are not recorded. The expectation-maximization principle is employed to handle the incomplete data problem. We assume that the lifetime distribution belongs to a parametric family with increasing failure rate. For the two parameter Weibull lifetime distribution, we propose a specific algorithm for finding the maximum lifelihood estimates of the reliability parameters : the probability of perfect PM (P), as well as the distribution parameters. The estimation method will provide useful results for maintaining real systems.

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참고문헌

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