• 제목/요약/키워드: Prior Probability

검색결과 287건 처리시간 0.02초

Estimation of Geometric Mean for k Exponential Parameters Using a Probability Matching Prior

  • Kim, Hea-Jung;Kim, Dae Hwang
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2003
  • In this article, we consider a Bayesian estimation method for the geometric mean of $textsc{k}$ exponential parameters, Using the Tibshirani's orthogonal parameterization, we suggest an invariant prior distribution of the $textsc{k}$ parameters. It is seen that the prior, probability matching prior, is better than the uniform prior in the sense of correct frequentist coverage probability of the posterior quantile. Then a weighted Monte Carlo method is developed to approximate the posterior distribution of the mean. The method is easily implemented and provides posterior mean and HPD(Highest Posterior Density) interval for the geometric mean. A simulation study is given to illustrates the efficiency of the method.

Noninformative Priors for the Coefficient of Variation in Two Inverse Gaussian Distributions

  • Kang, Sang-Gil;Kim, Dal-Ho;Lee, Woo-Dong
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.429-440
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we develop the noninformative priors when the parameter of interest is the common coefficient of variation in two inverse Gaussian distributions. We want to develop the first and second order probability matching priors. But we prove that the second order probability matching prior does not exist. It turns out that the one-at-a-time and two group reference priors satisfy the first order matching criterion but Jeffreys' prior does not. The Bayesian credible intervals based on the one-at-a-time reference prior meet the frequentist target coverage probabilities much better than that of Jeffreys' prior. Some simulations are given.

Noninformative Priors for the Stress-Strength Reliability in the Generalized Exponential Distributions

  • Kang, Sang-Gil;Kim, Dal-Ho;Lee, Woo-Dong
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.467-475
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    • 2011
  • This paper develops the noninformative priors for the stress-strength reliability from one parameter generalized exponential distributions. When this reliability is a parameter of interest, we develop the first, second order matching priors, reference priors in its order of importance in parameters and Jeffreys' prior. We reveal that these probability matching priors are not the alternative coverage probability matching prior or a highest posterior density matching prior, a cumulative distribution function matching prior. In addition, we reveal that the one-at-a-time reference prior and Jeffreys' prior are actually a second order matching prior. We show that the proposed reference prior matches the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense through a simulation study and a provided example.

Real-Time Motion Estimation Algorithm for Mobile Surveillance Robot (모바일 감시 로봇을 위한 실시간 움직임 추정 알고리즘)

  • Han, Cheol-Hoon;Sim, Kwee-Bo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.311-316
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    • 2009
  • This paper presents the motion estimation algorithm on real-time for mobile surveillance robot using particle filter. the particle filter that based on the monte carlo's sampling method, use bayesian conditional probability model which having prior distribution probability and posterior distribution probability. However, the initial probability density was set to define randomly in the most of particle filter. In this paper, we find first the initial probability density using Sum of Absolute Difference(SAD). and we applied it in the partical filter. In result, more robust real-time estimation and tracking system on the randomly moving object was realized in the mobile surveillance robot environments.

Discontinuity of Representativeness Heuristic

  • 이호창
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1999
  • The individual behavior on considering prior information when one assesses the probability of uncertain event by representativeness heuristic has been investigated. While prior researches proposed two contrasting behaviors on the employment, we tested the mixed hypothesis that individual ignores the prior information to some extents and begins to consider it above certain threshold when the evidence of representativeness is not salient. The threshold effect of prior probability is positively experimented and the results strongly support the discontinuity hypothesis of representativeness heuristic.

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Bayesian Inference for Stress-Strength Systems

  • Chang, In-Hong;Kim, Byung-Hwee
    • 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국데이터정보과학회 2005년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2005
  • We consider the problem of estimating the system reliability noninformative priors when both stress and strength follow generalized gamma distributions. We first derive Jeffreys' prior, group ordering reference priors, and matching priors. We investigate the propriety of posterior distributions and provide marginal posterior distributions under those noninformative priors. We also examine whether the reference priors satisfy the probability matching criterion.

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Noninformative priors for the ratio of parameters of two Maxwell distributions

  • Kang, Sang Gil;Kim, Dal Ho;Lee, Woo Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제24권3호
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    • pp.643-650
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    • 2013
  • We develop noninformative priors for a ratio of parameters of two Maxwell distributions which is used to check the equality of two Maxwell distributions. Specially, we focus on developing probability matching priors and Je reys' prior for objectiv Bayesian inferences. The probability matching priors, under which the probability of the Bayesian credible interval matches the frequentist probability asymptotically, are developed. The posterior propriety under the developed priors will be shown. Some simulations are performed for identifying the usefulness of proposed priors in objective Bayesian inference.

On availability of Bayesian imperfect repair model

  • Cha, Ji-Hwan;Kim, Jae-Joo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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    • 한국신뢰성학회 2001년도 정기학술대회
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    • pp.301-310
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    • 2001
  • Lim et al.(1998) proposed the Bayesian Imperfect Repair Model, in which a failed system is perfectly repaired with probability P and is minimally repaired with probability 1 - P, where P is not fixed but a random variable with a prior distribution II(p). In this note, the steady state availability of the model is derived and the measure is obtained for several particular prior distribution functions.

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Developing Noninformative Priors for Parallel-Line Bioassay

  • Kim, YeongHwa;Heo, JungEun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.401-410
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    • 2002
  • This paper revisits parallel-line bioassay problem, from a Bayesian point of view using noninformative priors such as Jeffreys' prior, reference priors, and probability matching priors. After finding the orthogonal transformation, the class of first order and second order probability matching priors are derived. Jeffreys' prior and reference priors are derived also. Numerical examples are given to show the effectiveness of noninformative priors.

Integrated Interpretation of Geophysical Data and its Application by Geostatistical Approach (지구통계학적 방식에 의한 물리탐사 자료의 복합해석과 그 응용)

  • Oh, Seok-Hoon;Chung, Ho-Joon;Suh, Baek-Soo
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지구물리탐사학회 2007년도 공동학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.48-53
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    • 2007
  • A new way to integrate various geophysical information for evaluation of RQD was developed. In this study, we did not directly define the RQD value where borehole data are not sampled. Instead, we infer the probability of RQD values with prior probability from borehole direct data, and secondary supporting probability from resistivity and seismic tomography data. For the integration, we applied the geostatstical indicator kriging to get prior probability of RQD value, and indicator kriging with soft data to get the supporting probability from resistivity and seismic data. And we finally use the permanence ratio rule to integrate these information. The finally obtained result was also analyzed to fully utilize the probabilistic features. We show the probability of wrongly classifying the RQD evaluation and vice versa. This result may be used for decision making process based on the geophysical exploration.

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