• Title/Summary/Keyword: Price Pattern

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Time Series Analysis and Development of Forecasting Model in Apartment House Cost Using X-12 ARIMA (X-12 ARIMA를 이용한 아파트 원가의 변동분석 및 예측모델 개발)

  • Cho, Hun-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.6 no.6 s.28
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    • pp.98-106
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    • 2005
  • The construction cost index and the forecasting model of apartment house can be efficient for evaluating the validness of the fluctuating price, and for making guidelines for construction firms when calculating their profit. In this study the previous construction cost index of apartment house was improved, and the forecasting model based on X-12 ARIMA was developed. According to the result, during the last five years the construction cost, excluding labor expense, has risen approximately to 22.7%. And during next three years, additional 16.8% rise of construction cost is expected. Those quantitative results can be utilized for evaluating the apartment house's selling price in an indirection, and be helpful to understand the variation pattern of the price.

A Study on the Eating-out Behavior of Daegu City Workers(II) - On the Difference Selection Attributes in Customer's Behavior - (외식 유형별 선택 속성에 따른 대구 지역 직장인들의 외식 행동에 관한 연구(II))

  • Kim, Duck-Hee;Beik, Kyung-Yeun;Kim, So-Ja
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.240-253
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to crystallize the factors which influence the eating-out tendency at home and work site including in the range of Daegu city. We can find out that taste is the most important element for family eating-out style. Then comes sanitation, service, reputation of a restaurant and price in that order. There are some differences between family eating-out style and workers eating-out style. The only thing that differs from above referred to statement is that price is prior to the reputation of a restaurant. Thus, taste is more important than any other factor in investigative studies. And, in case of family eating-out style, the reputation of a restaurant is prior to price. In case of workers eating-out, however, price is more important than the reputation of a restaurant.

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Estimation of Electricity Price of the Imported Power via Interstate Electric Power System in North-East Asia (동북아 전력계통 연계를 통한 융통전력 도입 시 가격상한 수준에 대한 분석)

  • Kim, Hong-Heun;Chung, Koo-Hyung;Kim, Bal-Ho
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.128-132
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    • 2006
  • Interstate electric power system, as an alternative for energy cooperation under regional economic bloc, has been hotly debated before progressing the restructure in electric power industry and rapidly expanded in many regions after 1990s. Especially, since northeast asia has strong supplementation in resource, load shape, fuel mix etc., electric power system interconnection in this region may bring considerable economic benefits. Moreover, since Korean electric power system has a great difficulty in a geographical condition to interrupt electricity transaction with other countries, it has been expanded as an independent system to supply all demand domestically. As a result, Korean electric power system makes considerable payment for maintaining system security and reliability and expands costly facilities to supply a temporary summer peak demand. Under this inefficiency, if there are electricity transactions with Russia via the North Korea route then economic electric power system operation nay be achieved using seasonal and hourly differences in electricity price and/or load pattern among these countries. In this paper, we estimate price cap of transacted electricity via interstate electric power system in northeast asia. For this study, we perform quantitative economic analysis on various system interconnection scenarios.

Consumption Structure and Prospects of Seafood in China (중국 수산물 소비구조와 전망)

  • Teligengbaiyi, Bao
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.37 no.3 s.72
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    • pp.109-130
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    • 2006
  • Rapid economic development has led seafood consumption to its quality - oriented pattern as well as consumer's in China. This study concerns about The First, China is Seafood development background. The Second, China become emboldened seafood causes. The third, seafood consumption has characteristic. The fourth, seafood consumption has the organization of society. The study shows that there are economic developmental periods Chinas has three time. The First time$(1961\sim1983)$ is rapid growth. The Second time$(1984\sim1998)$ is growth accumulate. The third time$(1999\sim)$ is changing on seafood consumption as the consumption of seafood is changed according to economic variables changes in income, price, tastes and population. This changing pattern of seafood consumption is based on economic variables appears toward luxury and convenience seafoods. Consumption of food is also affected by non - economic variables. The most typical non - economic variables leading to changes of seafood consumption is local, seafood culture, $et{\ldots}$ Recently seafood consumption pattern shows that consumers paying more money to get their seafood preference for pursuing its hight growth and varienty.

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Increasing Accuracy of Stock Price Pattern Prediction through Data Augmentation for Deep Learning (데이터 증강을 통한 딥러닝 기반 주가 패턴 예측 정확도 향상 방안)

  • Kim, Youngjun;Kim, Yeojeong;Lee, Insun;Lee, Hong Joo
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2019
  • As Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology develops, it is applied to various fields such as image, voice, and text. AI has shown fine results in certain areas. Researchers have tried to predict the stock market by utilizing artificial intelligence as well. Predicting the stock market is known as one of the difficult problems since the stock market is affected by various factors such as economy and politics. In the field of AI, there are attempts to predict the ups and downs of stock price by studying stock price patterns using various machine learning techniques. This study suggest a way of predicting stock price patterns based on the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) among machine learning techniques. CNN uses neural networks to classify images by extracting features from images through convolutional layers. Therefore, this study tries to classify candlestick images made by stock data in order to predict patterns. This study has two objectives. The first one referred as Case 1 is to predict the patterns with the images made by the same-day stock price data. The second one referred as Case 2 is to predict the next day stock price patterns with the images produced by the daily stock price data. In Case 1, data augmentation methods - random modification and Gaussian noise - are applied to generate more training data, and the generated images are put into the model to fit. Given that deep learning requires a large amount of data, this study suggests a method of data augmentation for candlestick images. Also, this study compares the accuracies of the images with Gaussian noise and different classification problems. All data in this study is collected through OpenAPI provided by DaiShin Securities. Case 1 has five different labels depending on patterns. The patterns are up with up closing, up with down closing, down with up closing, down with down closing, and staying. The images in Case 1 are created by removing the last candle(-1candle), the last two candles(-2candles), and the last three candles(-3candles) from 60 minutes, 30 minutes, 10 minutes, and 5 minutes candle charts. 60 minutes candle chart means one candle in the image has 60 minutes of information containing an open price, high price, low price, close price. Case 2 has two labels that are up and down. This study for Case 2 has generated for 60 minutes, 30 minutes, 10 minutes, and 5minutes candle charts without removing any candle. Considering the stock data, moving the candles in the images is suggested, instead of existing data augmentation techniques. How much the candles are moved is defined as the modified value. The average difference of closing prices between candles was 0.0029. Therefore, in this study, 0.003, 0.002, 0.001, 0.00025 are used for the modified value. The number of images was doubled after data augmentation. When it comes to Gaussian Noise, the mean value was 0, and the value of variance was 0.01. For both Case 1 and Case 2, the model is based on VGG-Net16 that has 16 layers. As a result, 10 minutes -1candle showed the best accuracy among 60 minutes, 30 minutes, 10 minutes, 5minutes candle charts. Thus, 10 minutes images were utilized for the rest of the experiment in Case 1. The three candles removed from the images were selected for data augmentation and application of Gaussian noise. 10 minutes -3candle resulted in 79.72% accuracy. The accuracy of the images with 0.00025 modified value and 100% changed candles was 79.92%. Applying Gaussian noise helped the accuracy to be 80.98%. According to the outcomes of Case 2, 60minutes candle charts could predict patterns of tomorrow by 82.60%. To sum up, this study is expected to contribute to further studies on the prediction of stock price patterns using images. This research provides a possible method for data augmentation of stock data.

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A Study on Modeling of Users a Load Usage Pattern in Home Energy Management System Using a Copula Function and the Application (Copula 함수를 이용한 HEMS 내 전력소비자의 부하 사용패턴 모델링 및 그 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Je-Seok;Kim, Jin-O
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.65 no.1
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    • pp.16-22
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    • 2016
  • This paper addresses the load usage scheduling in the HEMS for residential power consumers. The HEMS would lead the residential users to change their power usage, so as to minimize the cost in response to external information such as a time-varying electricity price, the outside temperature. However, there may be a consumer's inconvenience in the change of the power usage. In order to improve this, it is required to understand the pattern of load usage according to the external information. Therefore, this paper suggests a methodology to model the load usage pattern, which classifies home appliances according to external information affecting the load usage and models the usage pattern for each appliance based on a copula function representing the correlation between variables. The modeled pattern would be reflected as a constraint condition for an optimal load usage scheduling problem in HEMS. To explain an application of the methodology, a case study is performed on an electrical water heater (EWH) and an optimal load usage scheduling for EHW is performed based on the branch-and-bound method. From the case study, it is shown that the load usage pattern can contribute to an efficient power consumption.

Estimation of residential electricity demand function using cross-section data (횡단면 자료를 이용한 주택용 전력의 수요함수 추정)

  • Lim, Seul-Ye;Lim, Kyoung-Min;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2013
  • This paper attempts to estimate the residential electricity demand function, using survey data of 521 households in Korea. As the residential electricity demand function provides us information on the pattern of consumer's electricity consumption, it can be usefully utilized in predicting the impact of policy variables such as electricity price and forecasting electricity demands. We apply least absolute deviation(LAD) estimation as a robust approach to estimating parameters. The results showed that price and income elasticities are -0.68 and 0.14 respectively, and statistically significant at the 10% levels. The price and income elasticities portray that residential electricity is price- and income-inelastic. This implies that the residential electricity is indispensable goods to human-being's life, thus the residential electricity demand would not be promptly adjusted to responding to price and/or income change.

Prediction of Pine-mushroom (Tricholoma matsutake) Production from the Ratio of Each Grade at the Joint Market (공판되는 송이의 등급별 비율을 통한 향후 생산량 추이 예측)

  • Park, Hyun;Jung, Byung-Heon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.99 no.4
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    • pp.479-486
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    • 2010
  • We analyzed the relationships between the daily yield and quality of pine-mushroom to predict the annual production pattern and unit price of the mushroom with the records of pine-mushroom trade at Yeongdeok forestry cooperative's market for nine years (2000~2008). Although there were some exceptions due to extreme drought or extraordinary temperature, the production ratio of high quality (first and second grade) was more than 50% in early stage and decreased, while that of low quality (pileus opened and defected ones) showed increasing pattern after the production reached in peak. The ratio of high quality and that of low quality were reversed 1~9 days before the mushroom production reached the acme of daily yield, which allowed us to predict that the mushroom production would be decreased when the ratio of low quality overcomes that of high quality. The ratio of high quality preceded about 3~4 days prior to that of daily yield, and the mushroom yield showed significant correlations with the ratio of high quality mushroom prior to 3~4 days of the day with the coefficient larger than 0.5 (r=0.51 for 3 days and r=0.54 for 4 days). Thus, we concluded that the analysis of grade distribution of pine-mushroom at the market may provide a significant clue to predict production pattern of the mushroom. In addition, the price of high quality pine-mushroom showed clear negative correlations with the yield. Thus, the analysis may take a good role for the trading of pine-mushroom with providing information for predicting the price of pine-mushroom.

A Survey on the Pattern of Consumption and Utilization of Clothes (의복소비 행태와 의류자원활용 방안)

  • Seo, Yeong-Suk;Gu, Eun-Yeong;Jo, Pil-Gyo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.21 no.8
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    • pp.1406-1416
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    • 1997
  • The purpose of this study is to find out an efficient way to utilize clothes. It will be pro- environmental effort besides enhancing clothing life. The study is based on a survey of daily clothing practices. Questionnaire is distributed to female college students who are majoring clothing, textiles, and/or home economics and their parents (n=254). ANOVA, Scheffe test, 1-test and regression are pursued respectively. The main results are as follows: 1. Students, mothers and fathers possess 50.3, 49.9, 45.4 unit clothes, respectively. Mothers possess more formal suits while students possess more casual clothes than the others. The possession pattern is affected by socio-economic variables such as income and purchasing price. 2. In the unused rate of clothes, students'(10.2%) and mothers'(9.7%) rate are significantly higher than that of fathers (6.9%). The unused rate and using efficiency of clothes are affected by socio-economic variables: income and age for unused rate; age and purchasing price for using efficiency. 3. The most important reason for unused clothes is found to be design and color of the clothes. Long years of possessing and change of fashion are the next important reasons. 4. Most of respondents are highly conscious of recycling their clothes. Most of them are willing to donate their clothes to others, re·use or exchange them with the others.

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Impact of User Convenience on Appliance Scheduling of a Home Energy Management System

  • Shin, Je-Seok;Bae, In-Su;Kim, Jin-O
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.68-77
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    • 2018
  • Regarding demand response (DR) by residential users (R-users), the users try to reduce electricity costs by adjusting their power consumption in response to the time-varying price. However, their power consumption may be affected not only by the price, but also by user convenience for using appliances. This paper proposes a methodology for appliance scheduling (AS) that considers the user convenience based on historical data. The usage pattern for appliances is first modeled applying the copula function or clustering method to evaluate user convenience. As the modeling results, the comfort distribution or representative scenarios are obtained, and then used to formulate a discomfort index (DI) to assess the degree of the user convenience. An AS optimization problem is formulated in terms of cost and DI. In the case study, various AS tasks are performed depending on the weights for cost and DI. The results show that user convenience has significant impacts on AS. The proposed methodology can contribute to induce more DR participation from R-users by reflecting properly user convenience to AS problem.