• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• 제22권10호
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• pp.1697-1707
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• 2021

The recent introduction of various high-dimensional modeling methods, such as radiomics and deep learning, has created a much greater diversity in modeling approaches for survival prediction (or, more generally, time-to-event prediction). The newness of the recent modeling approaches and unfamiliarity with the model outputs may confuse some researchers and practitioners about the evaluation of the performance of such models. Methodological literacy to critically appraise the performance evaluation of the models and, ideally, the ability to conduct such an evaluation would be needed for those who want to develop models or apply them in practice. This article intends to provide intuitive, conceptual, and practical explanations of the statistical methods for evaluating the performance of survival prediction models with minimal usage of mathematical descriptions. It covers from conventional to deep learning methods, and emphasis has been placed on recent modeling approaches. This review article includes straightforward explanations of C indices (Harrell's C index, etc.), time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration plot, other methods for evaluating the calibration performance, and Brier score.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.294-299
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• 2012

본 논문은 단체 급식용 동결 생선을 일정한 중량으로 절단하기 위하여, 생선의 외형 및 부피 예측 모델링 기법을 제안하고, 실제 생선에 대한 절단 실험을 수행한다. 단체 급식용 동결 생선은 동결 하는 시점에서 발생한 생선의 휘어짐과, 머리를 절단하고 내장을 제거할 때에 발생하는 중공이 존재한다. 이외에도 동결의 영향으로 나타나는 표면의 반짝임이나 수분 량에 따른 무게의 차이로 인해 측정 및 추정의 어려움이 크다. 따라서 동결 생선의 외형과 부피를 정확히 추정하기 위해서는 상기의 특성과 문제점들을 반영한 복합적인 추정 알고리즘이 필요하다. 이를 위해, 중공 예측, 신경망을 이용한 꼬리부분 패턴 분류 및 모델링, 그리고 적분 기법 기반의 부피 예측 알고리즘을 각각 제안하고, 삼치, 꽁치, 고등어 3종류의 생선에 대해서 3차원 계측, 부피 예측 및 절단 실험을 수행한다.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.1-12
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• 2002

Landslide prediction modeling has been regarded as one of the important environmental applications in GIS. While, landslide stability in a certain area as collateral process for prediction modeling can be characterized by DEM-based hydrological features such as flow-direction, flow-accumulation, flow-length, wetness index, and so forth. In this study, Slope-Area plot methodology followed by stability index mapping with these hydrological variables is firstly performed for stability analysis with actual landslide occurrences at Boeun area, Korea, and then Landslide prediction modeling based on likelihood ratio model for landslide potential mapping is carried out; in addition, KOMPSAT EOC imagery is used to detect the locations and scalped scale of Landslide occurrences. These two tasks are independently processed for preparation of unbiased criteria, and then results of those are qualitatively compared. As results of this case study, land stability analysis based on DEM-based hydrological variables directly reflects terrain characteristics; however, the results in the form of land stability map by landslide prediction model are not fully matched with those of hydrologic landslide analysis due to the heuristic scheme based on location of existed landslide occurrences within prediction approach, especially zones of not-investigated occurrences. Therefore, it is expected that the resets on the space-robustness of landslide prediction models in conjunction with DEM-based landslide stability analysis can be effectively utilized to search out unrevealed or hidden landslide occurrences.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제15권5호
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• pp.625-638
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• 1999

Air quality modeling for coastal urban region has been composed of a complex system including meteorological, chemical and physical processes and emission characteristics in complex terrain. In this study, we studied about an effect prediction for deposition phenomenon affecting on air quality in Pusan metopolitan metropolitan city. In air quality modeling including ship sources, a situation considered deposition process habe better result than not considered when compared with observed value. Air pollutants emitted into urban air during the daytime nearly removed through urban atmosphere polluted. Also these phenomena correlated concentration variation connent with sea/land breezes and terrain effect. Therefore we conclude that the concentration was low at daytime when deposition flux is high, and deposition effect on industrial complex and Dongrae region is considerable in particular.

• 한국복합재료학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국복합재료학회 2002년도 추계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.179-182
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• 2002

Rapid Prototyping (RP) technologies provide the ability to fabricate initial prototypes from various model materials. Stratasys' Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) is a typical RP process that can fabricate prototypes out of plastic materials, and the parts made from FDM were often used as load-carrying elements. Because FDM deposits materials in about $300\mutextrm{m}$ thin filament with designated orientation, parts made from FDM show anisotropic material properties. This paper proposes an analytic model to predict the tensile strength of FDM parts. Applying the Classical Lamination Theory, which was developed for laminated composite materials, a computer code was implemented. Tsai-Wu failure criterion was added to the code to predict the failure of the FDM parts. The tensile strengths predicted by the analytic model were compared with experimental data. The data and prediction agreed reasonably well to prove the validity of the model. In addition, a web-based advisory service was developed to provide to strength prediction and design rules for FDM parts.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.83-93
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• 2001

기업부실예측은 과거로부터 많은 연구가 이루어진 분야로, 주로 통계기법에 의한 분류예측문제로 다루어져 왔다. 최근에는 인공신경망, 의사결정나무 등 비선형성을 반영할 수 있는 인공지능 기법을 적용한 연구가 많이 수행되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 최적화에 주로 활용하는 인공지능 기법인 유전자 알고리즘을 규칙추출을 통한 기업부실예측 모형의 개발에 적용하고, 활용가능성을 검증하였다.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 2012년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.597-598
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• 2012

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제19권5호
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• pp.655-660
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• 2009

기존의 예측 알고리즘들은 실시간 환경에서 학습 데이터 처리에서 오는 시간지연 문제, 구현의 어려움 등으로 개인화된 실시간 서비스를 제공하는 컨텍스트 인식 환경에서 사용하기에 적합하지 않다. 본 논문에서는 사용자 모델을 이용하여 컨텍스트 예측 알고리즘의 처리시간 단축과 예측 정확도를 향상시키기 위한 연구를 제안한다. 컨텍스트 예측을 위하여 사용자의 컨텍스트 중에서 이동경로를 사용한다. 이동경로를 기반으로 시계열 분석 방법을 통하여 사용자 모델을 생성하고, 생성된 사용자 모델을 시퀀스 매칭 방법을 이용하여 사용자의 컨텍스트를 예측한다. 기존 예측 알고리즘과 본 연구에서 제안한 예측 알고리즘을 시뮬레이션을 통하여 처리시간 및 예측 정확도를 비교한 결과, 실시간 서비스 환경에서 예측 정확도는 기존 예측 알고리즘들과 비슷한 결과를 보였고, 처리시간은 사용자 모델을 사용한 경우가 시퀀스 매칭을 사용한 경우보다 평균 40% 정도 감소시킬 수 있음을 알 수 있었다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제49권4호
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• pp.13-22
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• 2007

The uncertainty in water quality model predictions is inevitably high due to natural stochasticity, model uncertainty, and parameter uncertainty. An integrated modeling system under uncertainty was described and demonstrated for use in watershed management and receiving-water quality prediction. A watershed model (HSPF), a receiving water quality model (WASP), and a wetland model (NPS-WET) were incorporated into an integrated modeling system (modified-BASINS) and applied to the Hwaseong Reservoir watershed. Reservoir water quality was predicted using the calibrated integrated modeling system, and the deterministic integrated modeling output was useful for estimating mean water quality given future watershed conditions and assessing the spatial distribution of pollutant loads. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to investigate the effect of various uncertainties on output prediction. Without pollution control measures in the watershed, the concentrations of total nitrogen (T-N) and total phosphorous (T-P) in the Hwaseong Reservoir, considering uncertainty, would be less than about 4.8 and 0.26 mg 4.8 and 0.26 mg $L^{-1}$, respectively, with 95% confidence. The effects of two watershed management practices, a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and a constructed wetland (WETLAND), were evaluated. The combined scenario (WWTP + WETLAND) was the most effective at improving reservoir water quality, bringing concentrations of T-N and T-P in the Hwaseong Reservoir to less than 3.54 and 0.15 mg ${L^{-1}$, 26.7 and 42.9% improvements, respectively, with 95% confidence. Overall, the Monte Carlo simulation in the integrated modeling system was practical for estimating uncertainty and reliable in water quality prediction. The approach described here may allow decisions to be made based on probability and level of risk, and its application is recommended.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2007년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1631-1638
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• 2007

In this paper, a modeling for the dynamic behavior of a train vehicle is suggested for the prediction of the braking characteristics. In the dynamic modeling, effects of the primary and secondary suspension elements are considered and interactions between two vehicles are also estimated. This study can offer some fundamental results for a further research to enhance the braking performance using active braking control.