• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predict

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GMI Microwave Sea Surface Temperature Validation and Environmental Factors in the Seas around Korean Peninsula (한반도 주변해 GMI 마이크로파 해수면온도 검증과 환경적 요인)

  • Kim, Hee-Young;Park, Kyung-Ae;Kwak, Byeong-Dae;Joo, Hui-Tae;Lee, Joon-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.604-617
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    • 2022
  • Sea surface temperature (SST) is a key variable that can be used to understand ocean-atmosphere phenomena and predict climate change. Satellite microwave remote sensing enables the measurement of SST despite the presence of clouds and precipitation in the sensor path. Therefore, considering the high utilization of microwave SST, it is necessary to continuously verify its accuracy and analyze its error characteristics. In this study, the validation of the microwave global precision measurement (GPM)/GPM microwave imager (GMI) SST around the Northwest Pacific and Korean Peninsula was conducted using surface drifter temperature data for approximately eight years from March 2014 to December 2021. The GMI SST showed a bias of 0.09K and an average root mean square error of 0.97K compared to the actual SST, which was slightly higher than that observed in previous studies. In addition, the error characteristics of the GMI SST were related to environmental factors, such as latitude, distance from the coast, sea wind, and water vapor volume. Errors tended to increase in areas close to coastal areas within 300 km of land and in high-latitude areas. In addition, relatively high errors were found in the range of weak wind speeds (<6 m s-1) during the day and strong wind speeds (>10 m s-1) at night. Atmospheric water vapor contributed to high SST differences in very low ranges of <30 mm and in very high ranges of >60 mm. These errors are consistent with those observed in previous studies, in which GMI data were less accurate at low SST and were estimated to be due to differences in land and ocean radiation, wind-induced changes in sea surface roughness, and absorption of water vapor into the microwave atmosphere. These results suggest that the characteristics of the GMI SST differences should be clarified for more extensive use of microwave satellite SST calculations in the seas around the Korean Peninsula, including a part of the Northwest Pacific.

A Comparison between Simulation Results of DSSAT CROPGRO-SOYBEAN at US Cornbelt using Different Gridded Weather Forecast Data (격자기상예보자료 종류에 따른 미국 콘벨트 지역 DSSAT CROPGRO-SOYBEAN 모형 구동 결과 비교)

  • Yoo, Byoung Hyun;Kim, Kwang Soo;Hur, Jina;Song, Chan-Yeong;Ahn, Joong-Bae
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.164-178
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    • 2022
  • Uncertainties in weather forecasts would affect the reliability of yield prediction using crop models. The objective of this study was to compare uncertainty in crop yield prediction caused by the use of the weather forecast data. Daily weather data were produced at 10 km spatial resolution using W eather Research and Forecasting (W RF) model. The nearest neighbor method was used to downscale these data at the resolution of 5 km (W RF5K). Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) was also applied to the WRF data to produce the weather data at the same resolution. W RF5K and PRISM data were used as inputs to the CROPGRO-SOYBEAN model to predict crop yield. The uncertainties of the gridded data were analyzed using cumulative growing degree days (CGDD) and cumulative solar radiation (CSRAD) during the soybean growing seasons for the crop of interest. The degree of agreement (DOA) statistics including structural similarity index were determined for the crop model outputs. Our results indicated that the DOA statistics for CGDD were correlated with that for the maturity dates predicted using WRF5K and PRISM data. Yield forecasts had small values of the DOA statistics when large spatial disagreement occured between maturity dates predicted using WRF5K and PRISM. These results suggest that the spatial uncertainties in temperature data would affect the reliability of the phenology and, as a result, yield predictions at a greater degree than those in solar radiation data. This merits further studies to assess the uncertainties of crop yield forecasts using a wide range of crop calendars.

Smart Electric Mobility Operating System Integrated with Off-Grid Solar Power Plants in Tanzania: Vision and Trial Run (탄자니아의 태양광 발전소와 통합된 전기 모빌리티 운영 시스템 : 비전과 시범운행)

  • Rhee, Hyop-Seung;Im, Hyuck-Soon;Manongi, Frank Andrew;Shin, Young-In;Song, Ho-Won;Jung, Woo-Kyun;Ahn, Sung-Hoon
    • Journal of Appropriate Technology
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2021
  • To respond to the threat of global warming, countries around the world are promoting the spread of renewable energy and reduction of carbon emissions. In accordance with the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goal to combat climate change and its impacts, global automakers are pushing for a full transition to electric vehicles within the next 10 years. Electric vehicles can be a useful means for reducing carbon emissions, but in order to reduce carbon generated in the stage of producing electricity for charging, a power generation system using eco-friendly renewable energy is required. In this study, we propose a smart electric mobility operating system integrated with off-grid solar power plants established in Tanzania, Africa. By applying smart monitoring and communication functions based on Arduino-based computing devices, information such as remaining battery capacity, battery status, location, speed, altitude, and road conditions of an electric vehicle or electric motorcycle is monitored. In addition, we present a scenario that communicates with the surrounding independent solar power plant infrastructure to predict the drivable distance and optimize the charging schedule and route to the destination. The feasibility of the proposed system was verified through test runs of electric motorcycles. In considering local environmental characteristics in Tanzania for the operation of the electric mobility system, factors such as eco-friendliness, economic feasibility, ease of operation, and compatibility should be weighed. The smart electric mobility operating system proposed in this study can be an important basis for implementing the SDGs' climate change response.

Clinical Utility of the MMPI-A-RF's Internalization and Externalization Higher-Order Scales: Comparison With the K-CBCL's Internalization and Externalization Scales (MMPI-A-RF의 내재화 및 외현화 상위 척도의 임상적 유용성: K-CBCL의 내재화 및 외현화 척도와의 비교)

  • Eun-Bin, Shin;Eun-Hee, Park;Hyun-Joo, Hong
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.119-126
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    • 2022
  • Objectives : The purpose of this study was to examine the clinical utility of the internalization and externalization higher-order scales of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-Adolescent Restructured Form (MMPI-A-RF), compared with those scales of the Korean Child Behavior Checklist (K-CBCL). Methods : 43 adolescents with internalizing disorders and 44 adolescents with externalizing disorders and their parents were administered the MMPI-A-RF and K-CBCL each. To verify the difference between the internalization and externalization scales of the MMPI-A-RF and K-CBCL for each group, independent-sample t test was performed. To compare the agreement between the MMPI-A-RF and K-CBCL, correlation analysis was also conducted. Lastly, to identify which scales significantly best predict each of the internalizing and externalizing disorder, logistic regression analysis was conducted. Results : Internalization scales of the MMPI-A-RF and K-CBCL were significantly higher in the internalizing disorder group, and the externalization scales were significantly higher in the externalizing disorder group. The positive correlation was significant only for internalization problems between the two evaluation measures in both groups (each r=0.360, p<0.05, r=0.572, p<0.05). In addition, the scales significantly predicted internalizing and externalizing disorders were the internalization and externalization scales of the MMPI-A-RF, followed by the externalization scale of the K-CBCL (R2=0.407, p<0.05). Conclusions : The internalization and externalization higher-order scales of the MMPI-A-RF were found to reliably reflect the characteristics of each disorder in adolescents and be useful evaluative scales to differentiate disorders. Moreover, if adolescents show externalization problems, additional information from the K-CBCL can be more useful to differentiate disorders.

Evaluating the Predictability of Heat and Cold Damages of Soybean in South Korea using PNU CGCM -WRF Chain (PNU CGCM-WRF Chain을 이용한 우리나라 콩의 고온해 및 저온해에 대한 예측성 검증)

  • Myeong-Ju, Choi;Joong-Bae, Ahn;Young-Hyun, Kim;Min-Kyung, Jung;Kyo-Moon, Shim;Jina, Hur;Sera, Jo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.218-233
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    • 2022
  • The long-term (1986~2020) predictability of the number of days of heat and cold damages for each growth stage of soybean is evaluated using the daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) data produced by Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The Predictability evaluation methods for the number of days of damages are Normalized Standard Deviations (NSD), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Hit Rate (HR), and Heidke Skill Score (HSS). First, we verified the simulation performance of the Tmax and Tmin, which are the variables that define the heat and cold damages of soybean. As a result, although there are some differences depending on the month starting with initial conditions from January (01RUN) to May (05RUN), the result after a systematic bias correction by the Variance Scaling method is similar to the observation compared to the bias-uncorrected one. The simulation performance for correction Tmax and Tmin from March to October is overall high in the results (ENS) averaged by applying the Simple Composite Method (SCM) from 01RUN to 05RUN. In addition, the model well simulates the regional patterns and characteristics of the number of days of heat and cold damages by according to the growth stages of soybean, compared with observations. In ENS, HR and HSS for heat damage (cold damage) of soybean have ranged from 0.45~0.75, 0.02~0.10 (0.49~0.76, -0.04~0.11) during each growth stage. In conclusion, 01RUN~05RUN and ENS of PNU CGCM-WRF Chain have the reasonable performance to predict heat and cold damages for each growth stage of soybean in South Korea.

Future Prospects of Forest Type Change Determined from National Forest Inventory Time-series Data (시계열 국가산림자원조사 자료를 이용한 전국 산림의 임상 변화 특성 분석과 미래 전망)

  • Eun-Sook, Kim;Byung-Heon, Jung;Jae-Soo, Bae;Jong-Hwan, Lim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.111 no.4
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    • pp.461-472
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    • 2022
  • Natural and anthropogenic factors cause forest types to continuously change. Since the ratio of forest area by forest type is important information for identifying the characteristics of national forest resources, an accurate understanding of the prospect of forest type change is required. The study aim was to use National Forest Inventory (NFI) time-series data to understand the characteristics of forest type change and to estimate future prospects of nationwide forest type change. We used forest type change information from the fifth and seventh NFI datasets, climate, topography, forest stand, and disturbance variables related to forest type change to analyze trends and characteristics of forest type change. The results showed that the forests in Korea are changing in the direction of decreasing coniferous forests and increasing mixed and broadleaf forests. The forest sites that were changing from coniferous to mixed forests or from mixed to broadleaf forests were mainly located in wet topographic environments and climatic conditions. The forest type changes occurred more frequently in sites with high disturbance potential (high temperature, young or sparse forest stands, and non-forest areas). We used a climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) to establish a forest type change model (SVM) to predict future changes. During the 40-year period from 2015 to 2055, the SVM predicted that coniferous forests will decrease from 38.1% to 28.5%, broadleaf forests will increase from 34.2% to 38.8%, and mixed forests will increase from 27.7% to 32.7%. These results can be used as basic data for establishing future forest management strategies.

A Development of Facility Web Program for Small and Medium-Sized PSM Workplaces (중·소규모 공정안전관리 사업장의 웹 전산시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Young Suk;Park, Dal Jae
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.60 no.3
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    • pp.334-346
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    • 2022
  • There is a lack of knowledge and information on the understanding and application of the Process Safety Management (PSM) system, recognized as a major cause of industrial accidents in small-and medium-sized workplaces. Hence, it is necessary to prepare a protocol to secure the practical and continuous levels of implementation for PSM and eliminate human errors through tracking management. However, insufficient research has been conducted on this. Therefore, this study investigated and analyzed the various violations in the administrative measures, based on the regulations announced by the Ministry of Employment and Labor, in approximately 200 small-and medium-sized PSM workplaces with fewer than 300 employees across in korea. This study intended to contribute to the prevention of major industrial accidents by developing a facility maintenance web program that removed human errors in small-and medium-sized workplaces. The major results are summarized as follows. First, It accessed the web via a QR code on a smart device to check the equipment's specification search function, cause of failure, and photos for the convenience of accessing the program, which made it possible to make requests for the it inspection and maintenance in real time. Second, it linked the identification of the targets to be changed, risk assessment, worker training, and pre-operation inspection with the program, which allowed the administrator to track all the procedures from start to finish. Third, it made it possible to predict the life of the equipment and verify its reliability based on the data accumulated through the registration of the pictures for improvements, repairs, time required, cost, etc. after the work was completed. It is suggested that these research results will be helpful in the practical and systematic operation of small-and medium-sized PSM workplaces. In addition, it can be utilized in a useful manner for the development and dissemination of a facility maintenance web program when establishing future smart factories in small-and medium-sized PSM workplaces under the direction of the government.

Prediction of patent lifespan and analysis of influencing factors using machine learning (기계학습을 활용한 특허수명 예측 및 영향요인 분석)

  • Kim, Yongwoo;Kim, Min Gu;Kim, Young-Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.147-170
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    • 2022
  • Although the number of patent which is one of the core outputs of technological innovation continues to increase, the number of low-value patents also hugely increased. Therefore, efficient evaluation of patents has become important. Estimation of patent lifespan which represents private value of a patent, has been studied for a long time, but in most cases it relied on a linear model. Even if machine learning methods were used, interpretation or explanation of the relationship between explanatory variables and patent lifespan was insufficient. In this study, patent lifespan (number of renewals) is predicted based on the idea that patent lifespan represents the value of the patent. For the research, 4,033,414 patents applied between 1996 and 2017 and finally granted were collected from USPTO (US Patent and Trademark Office). To predict the patent lifespan, we use variables that can reflect the characteristics of the patent, the patent owner's characteristics, and the inventor's characteristics. We build four different models (Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Feed Forward Neural Network, Gradient Boosting Models) and perform hyperparameter tuning through 5-fold Cross Validation. Then, the performance of the generated models are evaluated, and the relative importance of predictors is also presented. In addition, based on the Gradient Boosting Model which have excellent performance, Accumulated Local Effects Plot is presented to visualize the relationship between predictors and patent lifespan. Finally, we apply Kernal SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to present the evaluation reason of individual patents, and discuss applicability to the patent evaluation system. This study has academic significance in that it cumulatively contributes to the existing patent life estimation research and supplements the limitations of existing patent life estimation studies based on linearity. It is academically meaningful that this study contributes cumulatively to the existing studies which estimate patent lifespan, and that it supplements the limitations of linear models. Also, it is practically meaningful to suggest a method for deriving the evaluation basis for individual patent value and examine the applicability to patent evaluation systems.

Sea Fog Level Estimation based on Maritime Digital Image for Protection of Aids to Navigation (항로표지 보호를 위한 디지털 영상기반 해무 강도 측정 알고리즘)

  • Ryu, Eun-Ji;Lee, Hyo-Chan;Cho, Sung-Yoon;Kwon, Ki-Won;Im, Tae-Ho
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2021
  • In line with future changes in the marine environment, Aids to Navigation has been used in various fields and their use is increasing. The term "Aids to Navigation" means an aid to navigation prescribed by Ordinance of the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries which shows navigating ships the position and direction of the ships, position of obstacles, etc. through lights, shapes, colors, sound, radio waves, etc. Also now the use of Aids to Navigation is transforming into a means of identifying and recording the marine weather environment by mounting various sensors and cameras. However, Aids to Navigation are mainly lost due to collisions with ships, and in particular, safety accidents occur because of poor observation visibility due to sea fog. The inflow of sea fog poses risks to ports and sea transportation, and it is not easy to predict sea fog because of the large difference in the possibility of occurrence depending on time and region. In addition, it is difficult to manage individually due to the features of Aids to Navigation distributed throughout the sea. To solve this problem, this paper aims to identify the marine weather environment by estimating sea fog level approximately with images taken by cameras mounted on Aids to Navigation and to resolve safety accidents caused by weather. Instead of optical and temperature sensors that are difficult to install and expensive to measure sea fog level, sea fog level is measured through the use of general images of cameras mounted on Aids to Navigation. Furthermore, as a prior study for real-time sea fog level estimation in various seas, the sea fog level criteria are presented using the Haze Model and Dark Channel Prior. A specific threshold value is set in the image through Dark Channel Prior(DCP), and based on this, the number of pixels without sea fog is found in the entire image to estimate the sea fog level. Experimental results demonstrate the possibility of estimating the sea fog level using synthetic haze image dataset and real haze image dataset.

Change Prediction of Future Forestland Area by Transition of Land Use Types in South Korea (로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적의 공간변화 예측에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn;PARK, So-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.99-112
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    • 2021
  • This study was performed to predict spatial change of future forestland area in South Korea at regional level for supporting forest-related plans established by local governments. In the study, land use was classified to three types which are forestland, agricultural land, and urban and other lands. A logistic regression model was developed using transitional interaction between each land use type and topographical factors, land use restriction factors, socioeconomic indices, and development infrastructures. In this model, change probability from a target land use type to other land use types was estimated using raster dataset(30m×30m) for each variable. With priority order map based on the probability of land use change, the total annual amount of land use change was allocated to the cells in the order of the highest transition potential for the spatial analysis. In results, it was found that slope degree and slope standard value by the local government were the main factors affecting the probability of change from forestland to urban and other land. Also, forestland was more likely to change to urban and other land in the conditions of a more gentle slope, lower slope criterion allowed to developed, and higher land price and population density. Consequently, it was predicted that forestland area would decrease by 2027 due to the change from forestland to urban and others, especially in metropolitan and major cities, and that forestland area would increase between 2028 and 2050 in the most local provincial cities except Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, and Jeju Island due to locality extinction with decline in population. Thus, local government is required to set an adequate forestland use criterion for balanced development, reasonable use and conservation, and to establish the regional forest strategies and policies considering the future land use change trends.