• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.1053-1063
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• 2017

Power prediction is critical to improve power efficiency in Smart Grids. Markov chain provides a useful tool for power prediction. With careful investigation of practical power datasets, we find an interesting phenomenon that the stochastic property of practical power datasets does not follow the Markov features. This mismatch affects the prediction accuracy if directly using Markov prediction methods. In this paper, we innovatively propose a spatial transform based data processing to alleviate this inconsistency. Furthermore, we propose an enhanced power prediction method, named by Spatial Mapping Markov-Difference (SMMD), to guarantee the prediction accuracy. In particular, SMMD adopts a second prediction adjustment based on the differential data to reduce the stochastic error. Experimental results validate that the proposed SMMD achieves an improvement in terms of the prediction accuracy with respect to state-of-the-art solutions.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.115-123
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• 2021

Through machine learning-based load prediction, it is possible to prevent excessive power generation or unnecessary economic investment by estimating the appropriate amount of facility investment in consideration of the load that will increase in the future or providing basic data for policy establishment to distribute the maximum load. However, in order to secure the reliability of the developed load prediction model in the field, the performance comparison verification between the distribution line load prediction models must be preceded, but a comparative performance verification system between the distribution line load prediction models has not yet been established. As a result, it is not possible to accurately determine the performance excellence of the load prediction model because it is not possible to easily determine the likelihood between the load prediction models. In this paper, we developed a reliability verification system for load prediction models including a method of comparing and verifying the performance reliability between machine learning-based load prediction models that were not previously considered, verification process, and verification result visualization methods. Through the developed load prediction model reliability verification system, the objectivity of the load prediction model performance verification can be improved, and the field application utilization of an excellent load prediction model can be increased.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.1841-1851
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• 2018

For the safe and stable operation of the power system, accurate wind power prediction is of great significance. A wind power prediction method based on empirical mode decomposition and improved extreme learning machine is proposed in this paper. Firstly, wind power time series is decomposed into several components with different frequency by empirical mode decomposition, which can reduce the non-stationary of time series. The components after decomposing remove the long correlation and promote the different local characteristics of original wind power time series. Secondly, an improved extreme learning machine prediction model is introduced to overcome the sample data updating disadvantages of standard extreme learning machine. Different improved extreme learning machine prediction model of each component is established. Finally, the prediction value of each component is superimposed to obtain the final result. Compared with other prediction models, the simulation results demonstrate that the proposed prediction method has better prediction accuracy for wind power.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.989-995
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• 2017

As is known to all that the output of wind power generation has a character of randomness and volatility because of the influence of natural environment conditions. At present, the research of wind power prediction mainly focuses on point forecasting, which can hardly describe its uncertainty, leading to the fact that its application in practice is low. In this paper, a wind power range prediction model based on the multiple output property of BP neural network is built, and the optimization criterion considering the information of predicted intervals is proposed. Then, improved Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to optimize the model. The simulation results of a practical example show that the proposed wind power range prediction model can effectively forecast the output power interval, and provide power grid dispatcher with decision.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.53 no.8
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• pp.2610-2615
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• 2021

The prediction of irradiation-induced transition temperature shift for RPV steels is an important method for long term operation of nuclear power plant. Based on the irradiation embrittlement data, an irradiation-induced transition temperature shift prediction model is developed with machine learning method XGBoost. Then the residual, standard deviation and predicted value vs. measured value analysis are conducted to analyze the accuracy of this model. At last, Cu content threshold and saturation values analysis, temperature dependence, Ni/Cu dependence and flux effect are given to verify the reliability. Those results show that the prediction model developed with XGBoost has high accuracy for predicting the irradiation embrittlement trend of RPV steel. The prediction results are consistent with the current understanding of RPV embrittlement mechanism.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.19 no.8
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• pp.1530-1537
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• 2016

Recently, solar power generation shows the significant growth in the renewable energy field. Using the short-term prediction, it is possible to control the electric power demand and the power generation plan of the auxiliary device. However, a short-term prediction can be used when you know the weather forecast. If it is not possible to use the weather forecast information because of disconnection of network at the island and the mountains or for security reasons, the accuracy of prediction is not good. Therefore, in this paper, we proposed a system capable of short-term prediction of solar power generation amount by using only the weather information that has been collected by oneself. We used temperature, humidity and insolation as weather information. We have applied a moving average to each information because they had a characteristic of time series. It was composed of min, max and average of each information, differences of mutual information and gradient of it. An artificial neural network, SVM and RBF Network model was used for the prediction algorithm and they were combined by Ensemble method. The results of this suggest that using a moving average during pre-processing and ensemble prediction models will maximize prediction accuracy.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.59 no.12
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• pp.2202-2211
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• 2010

The wind power prediction system is composed of a meteorological forecasting module, calculation module of wind power output and HMI(Human Machine Interface) visualization system. The final information from this system is a short-term (6hr ahead) and mid-term (48hr ahead) wind power prediction value. The meteorological forecasting module for wind speed and direction forecasting is a combination of physical and statistical model. In this system, the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model, which is a three-dimensional numerical weather model, is used as the physical model and the GFS(Global Forecasting System) models is used for initial condition forecasting. The 100m resolution terrain data is used to improve the accuracy of this system. In addition, optimization of the physical model carried out using historic weather data in Jeju. The mid-term prediction value from the physical model is used in the statistical method for a short-term prediction. The final power prediction is calculated using an optimal adjustment between the currently observed data and data predicted from the power curve model. The final wind power prediction value is provided to customs using a HMI visualization system. The aim of this study is to further improve the accuracy of this prediction system and develop a practical system for power system operation and the energy market in the Smart-Grid.

• Journal of The Institute of Information and Telecommunication Facilities Engineering
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.74-79
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• 2011

The goal of this research is to reduce dynamic and static power consumption for a low power cache system. The proposed cache can achieve a low power consumption by using a drowsy and a way prediction mechanism. For reducing the static power, the drowsy technique is used at 4-way set associative cache. And for reducing the dynamic energy, one among four ways is selectively accessed on the basis of information in the Way-Line Prediction Unit (WLPU). This prediction mechanism does not introduce any additional delay though prediction misses are occurred. The WLPU can effectively reduce the performance overhead of the conventional drowsy caching by waking only a drowsy cache line and one way in advance. Our results show that the proposed cache can reduce the power consumption by about 40% compared with the 4-way drowsy cache.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.91-103
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• 2022

This study proposes a model for predicting contracted power using electric power data collected in real time from convenience stores nationwide. By optimizing the prediction model using machine learning, it will be possible to predict the contracted power required to renew the contract of the existing convenience store. Contracted power is predicted through the XGBoost regression model. For the learning of XGBoost model, the electric power data collected for 16 months through a real-time monitoring system for convenience stores nationwide were used. The hyperparameters of the XGBoost model were tuned using the GridesearchCV, and the main features of the prediction model were identified using the xgb.importance function. In addition, it was also confirmed whether the preprocessing method of missing values and outliers affects the prediction of reduced power. As a result of hyperparameter tuning, an optimal model with improved predictive performance was obtained. It was found that the features of power.2020.09, power.2021.02, area, and operating time had an effect on the prediction of contracted power. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the preprocessing policy of missing values and outliers did not affect the prediction result. The proposed XGBoost regression model showed high predictive performance for contract power. Even if the preprocessing method for missing values and outliers was changed, there was no significant difference in the prediction results through hyperparameters tuning.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.16 no.11
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• pp.488-498
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• 2016

Much of the information is stored as data, research has been activated for analyzing the data and predicting the special circumstances. In the case of power data, the studies, such as research of renewable energy utilization, power prediction depending on site characteristics, smart grid, and micro-grid, is actively in progress. In this paper, we propose a power prediction model using the substation environment data. In this case, we try to verify the power prediction result to reflect the multiple arguments on the power and weather data, rather than a simple power data. The validation process is the effect of multiple factors compared to other two methods, one of power prediction result considering power data and the other result using power pattern data that have been made in the similar weather data. Our system shows that it can achieve max prediction error of less than 15%.