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http://dx.doi.org/10.5370/JEET.2017.12.3.1053

Enhanced Markov-Difference Based Power Consumption Prediction for Smart Grids  

Le, Yiwen (School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University)
He, Jinghan (School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University)
Publication Information
Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology / v.12, no.3, 2017 , pp. 1053-1063 More about this Journal
Abstract
Power prediction is critical to improve power efficiency in Smart Grids. Markov chain provides a useful tool for power prediction. With careful investigation of practical power datasets, we find an interesting phenomenon that the stochastic property of practical power datasets does not follow the Markov features. This mismatch affects the prediction accuracy if directly using Markov prediction methods. In this paper, we innovatively propose a spatial transform based data processing to alleviate this inconsistency. Furthermore, we propose an enhanced power prediction method, named by Spatial Mapping Markov-Difference (SMMD), to guarantee the prediction accuracy. In particular, SMMD adopts a second prediction adjustment based on the differential data to reduce the stochastic error. Experimental results validate that the proposed SMMD achieves an improvement in terms of the prediction accuracy with respect to state-of-the-art solutions.
Keywords
Smart grid; Power prediction; Markov-difference; Spatial mapping;
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