A Study on the Optimization of a Contracted Power Prediction Model for Convenience Store using XGBoost Regression

This study proposes a model for predicting contracted power using electric power data collected in real time from convenience stores nationwide. By optimizing the prediction model using machine learning, it will be possible to predict the contracted power required to renew the contract of the existing convenience store. Contracted power is predicted through the XGBoost regression model. For the learning of XGBoost model, the electric power data collected for 16 months through a real-time monitoring system for convenience stores nationwide were used. The hyperparameters of the XGBoost model were tuned using the GridesearchCV, and the main features of the prediction model were identified using the xgb.importance function. In addition, it was also confirmed whether the preprocessing method of missing values and outliers affects the prediction of reduced power. As a result of hyperparameter tuning, an optimal model with improved predictive performance was obtained. It was found that the features of power.2020.09, power.2021.02, area, and operating time had an effect on the prediction of contracted power. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the preprocessing policy of missing values and outliers did not affect the prediction result. The proposed XGBoost regression model showed high predictive performance for contract power. Even if the preprocessing method for missing values and outliers was changed, there was no significant difference in the prediction results through hyperparameters tuning.

XGBoost 회귀를 활용한 편의점 계약전력 예측 모델의 최적화에 대한 연구