• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.79-96
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• 2012

As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.99-109
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• 2015

The Ecosystem and Nature Map (ENM) is basic map for current status of natural resources. The map has been offered information to ecological conservation and restoration, as well as to land use planning and policy making. The map composed of 794 sheets in 1:25,000 scale classifies total areas into three grade zones (1st, 2nd and 3rd grade zones) and separately managed zone. In 2005, the first draft Ecosystem and Nature Map was prepared by the second National Ecosystem Survey. It was opened for the people to search and appeal. So 1,419 cases of public appeals on the first draft Ecosystem and Nature Map were submitted in 2005. After partial revision, the first Ecosystem and Nature Map was announced in 2007. The second draft Ecosystem and Nature Map was prepared by the third National Ecosystem Survey and opened to public in 2012. As a result, 1,263 cases of public appeals were submitted in 2012. Since the first announcement of the Ecosystem and Nature Map in April 2007, 182 cases of public appeals on the Map were submitted until December 2013. Among them, 159 cases were announced with revision. According to the first Ecosystem and Nature Map announced in 2007, graded areas covered 7.5% in the 1st grade zone, 39.2% in the 2nd grade zone and 44.7% in the 3rd grade zone of the national land area, respectively. In the second draft Ecosystem and Nature Map in 2012, areas of the 1st grade zone and the 2nd grade zone were 9.2% increased 1.7 percentage points and 45.5% increased 6.3 percentage points, and areas of the 3rd grade zone were 36.6% decreased 8.1 percentage points. Among areas of the 1st grade zone, Gangwondo occupies 54.3% in 2007 and 47.6% in 2012. Gangwondo consists of the highest percentage of the 1st grade zone and the smallest of the 3rd grade zone. Seoul has the highest percentage of the 3rd grade zone. There were the highest increase of the 1st grade zone in Gyeongsangbukdo and the highest decrease in Jeollabukdo and Seoul. Vegetation is the most important evaluation factor to determine the grade of the Ecosystem and Nature Map.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.183-200
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• 2019

In this study, the characteristics of seasonal $PM_{2.5}$ behavior in South Korea and other Northeast Asian regions were analyzed by using the $PM_{2.5}$ ground measurement data, weather data, WRF and CMAQ models. Analysis of seasonal $PM_{2.5}$ behavior in Northeast Asia showed that $PM_{2.5}$ concentration at 6 IMS sites in South Korea was increased by long-distance transport and atmospheric congestion, or decreased by clean air inflow due to seasonal weather characteristics. As a result of analysis by applying BFM to air quality model, the contribution from foreign countries dominantly influenced the $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations of Baengnyeongdo due to the low self-emission and geographical location. In the case of urban areas with high self-emissions such as Seoul and Ulsan, the $PM_{2.5}$ contribution from overseas was relatively low compared to other regions, but the standard deviation of the season was relatively high. This study is expected to improve the understanding of the air pollutant phenomenon by analyzing the characteristics of $PM_{2.5}$ behavior in Northeast Asia according to the seasonal weather condition change. At the same time, this study can be used to establish the air quality policy in the future, knowing that the contribution of $PM_{2.5}$ concentration to the domestic and overseas can be different depending on the regional emission characteristics.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.101-112
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• 2019

Over the last few years, air pollution ($PM_{10}$, $PM_{2.5}$) in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA) has emerged as one of the most concerned and threatening environmental issues among the residents. It brings about various harmful effects on human health, as well as ecosystem and industrial activities. Governments and individuals pay various costs to mitigate the level of air pollutants. This study aims to empirically find the willingness to pays (WTP) among the parents from different socio-cultural groups - international and domestic groups to mitigate air pollution ($PM_{10}$, $PM_{2.5}$) in their residential area. Contingent Valuation Methods (CVM) is used with employing single-bounded dichotomous choice technique to elicit the respondent's WTP. Using tobit (censored regression) and probit models, the monthly mean WTP of the pooled sample for green electricity which contributes to improve air quality in the region was estimated as 3,993 KRW (3.58 USD). However, the mean WTP between the international group and domestic group through a sub-sample analysis shows broad distinction as 3,325KRW (2.98 USD) and 4,449 KRW (3.98 USD) respectively. This is because that socio-cultural characteristics of each group such as socio-economic status, personal experience, trust in institutions and worldview are differently associated with the WTP. Based on the results, the society needs to raise awareness of lay people to find a strong linkage between the current PM issue and green electricity. Also, it needs to improve trust in the government's pollution abatement policy to mobilize more assertive participation of the people from different socio-cultural background.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.533-544
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• 2023

The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs has been promoting policies to strengthen the functions of rural centers (culture, welfare, economy, education, etc.) and to ensure that services from the centers are delivered to and connected to hinterland villages. For this policy purpose, the rural center revitalization project and the basic living base creation project within the rural development projects are being promoted. However, in the process of carrying out the actual project, as the focus is on strengthening the functions of rural centers, service delivery and connection with hinterland villages are not being actively promoted. therefore, in this study, we analyze the projects previously carried out in Jeoksang-myeon, Muju-gun and the regional status, analyze the reasons why hinterland village services were not connected and activated, and propose a direction for the second phase of the basic living base creation project to be carried out in the future. As a result of analyzing the reasons for the failure of hinterland village services to be activated, problems such as disadvantages in accessing services due to dispersed residence in rural areas and limitations in topographical structure, and the lack of a service delivery system to develop demand in hinterland areas were found to be problems. Improvement measures were derived as follows. First, it is a stepping stone construction plan proposed to overcome topographical limitations. Establish a stepping base that will function as a service intermediate terminal to ensure efficient service delivery. Second, for a rational decision-making structure, we proposed a plan for deploying communication channels that could closely collect local opinions by operating various small-scale communities along with the efficient composition of a resident committee that includes residents of the central and hinterland villages and various classes. Third, it is a virtuous cycle of local manpower training plans that train local residents into professional instructors. We aim to complete a sustainable, resident-led service supply system by nurturing the most important service deliverers, that is, activists, in service delivery.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.69-93
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• 2014

The aim of this research was to develop a climate change vulnerability index at the district level (Si, Gun, Gu) with respect to the health care sector in Korea. The climate change vulnerability index was esimated based on the four major causes of climate-related illnesses : vector, flood, heat waves, and air pollution/allergies. The vulnerability assessment framework consists of six layers, all of which are based on the IPCC vulnerability concepts (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) and the pathway of direct and indirect impacts of climate change modulators on health. We collected proxy variables based on the conceptual framework of climate change vulnerability. Data were standardized using the min-max normalization method. We applied the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) weight and aggregated the variables using the non-compensatory multi-criteria approach. To verify the index, sensitivity analysis was conducted by using another aggregation method (geometric transformation method, which was applied to the index of multiple deprivation in the UK) and weight, calculated by the Budget Allocation method. The results showed that it would be possible to identify the vulnerable areas by applying the developed climate change vulnerability assessment index. The climate change vulnerability index could then be used as a valuable tool in setting climate change adaptation policies in the health care sector.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.111-123
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• 2011

A Ubiquitous-Ecological City (U-Eco City) is the new urban paradigm integrated with ubiquitous-city (U-City) connecting the high-tech IT technology to the urvan space with the concept of the sustainable eco-city. As a U-Eco City is attempted for the first time domestically and internationally, there is insufficient discussions for its develoment goal, planned design proposal, technology and service element and others. Even if there are plans to build up it, policy and technology, service structuring business and others, it is difficult to assess how it would bring the efficacy. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to present the indicators system to assess a U-Eco City. The results of this study revealed the following; First, the conceptual framework, which was established to achieve sustainable urban quality, can be suggested by establishing its notion of the U-Eco City. The concept of a U-Eco City as established in this study suggests that the economic development in growth-oriented level has to be conducted not only quality of urban environment but also in terms of sustainable to consider the complex impact of various development; Secondly, the developed assessment system has heightened the completeness as the evaluation index through the attitude survey. As a result of questionnaire survey with the subject of specialists and interested party of this study, the urban qualitative aspect is formulated for the stability as a relatively important aspect. For the urban continuity aspect, society, environment and economy have all similar importance, but the environment element was shown to be highest. And finally, subject area was selected on the basis of the evaluation system and the analysis was made on the basis of the implementation design plan of the area. As a result of the assessment, safety and economy have shown to be high. This is indirectly indicated for the priority in economic growth driven development plan unlike the importance of environmental continuity obtained through the attitude survey. When planning on urban development, there is a need for supplementing the environment part and it has to present the connection plan between the economic growth and environmental continuity.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.132-141
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• 2012

Climate change impact assessment of cereal crop production in South Korea was performed using land attributes and daily weather data at a farm scale as inputs to crop models. Farmlands in South Korea were grouped into 68 crop-simulation zone units (CZU) based on major mountains and rivers as well as existing land use information. Daily weather data at a 1-km grid spacing under the A1B- and RCP8.5 scenarios were generated stochastically to obtain decadal mean of daily data. These data were registered to the farmland grid cells and spatially averaged to represent climate conditions in each CZU. Monthly climate data for each decade in 2001~2100 were transformed to 30 sets of daily weather data for each CZU by using a stochastic weather generator. Soil data and crop management information for 68 CZU were used as inputs to the CERES-rice, CERE-barley and CROPGRO-soybean models calibrated to represent the genetic features of major domestic cultivars in South Korea. Results from the models suggested that the heading or flowering of rice, winter barley and soybean could be accelerated in the future. The grain-fill period of winter barley could be extended, resulting in much higher yield of winter barley in most CZUs than that of rice. Among the three major cereal grain crops in Korea, rice seems most vulnerable to negative impact of climate change, while little impact of climate change is expected on soybeans. Because a positive effect of climate change is projected for winter barley, policy in agricultural production should pay more attention to facilitate winter barley production as an adaptation strategy for the national food security.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.70-78
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• 2018

Recently, the conservation of mountainous landscape and compensation for diverse demands for mountain areas such as leisure, recreation and welfare are under discussion. The purpose of this study is to investigation the perception of mountainous landscapes by those who view and recognize the landscapes and to estimate economic value by estimating the willingness to pay for the management of mountainous landscapes. This study will provide data for the management of mountainous landscapes. As a result of comparing the perception between the territorial landscape and the mountain landscape, the mountain scenery was 3.96, the management level satisfaction was 3.28, and the management necessity was 4.38, which was higher than the national landscape, while the national landscape was satisfactory but the management level was insufficient. Jeju Island (39.0%) and Gangwon (38.6%) were chosen as the most scenic areas with beautiful forest and mountainous landscape resources. The aesthetic characteristics of the vast skyline of mountain scenery, the background of the area, and the mountainous landscape that forms the landmark were evaluated highly. And, it is considered that consciousness of mountainous landscape management is heightened by 86.8% of respondents, who positively answered the Mountainous Landscape Visual Impact Assessment before the development project. The per capita payment amount for mountainous landscape management was calculated to be 3,742 won and, based on the number of visitors to the mountain National Parks in 2016, it is estimated to have an economic value of about 169.5 billion won. Policymakers have limitations in the mountainous landscape management policies of the administrative subject. Establishing a consensus on the importance and necessity of landscape management by diagnosing the status of public perception is expected to help create more effective policy direction and implement strategies for the management of these areas.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.3-25
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• 2015

Our goal is to verify how changes in water's hydraulic characteristics after urban regeneration stream can affect any possible transformation of its thermal environment. To that end, we analyzed changes in numerous physical characteristics the subject stream along with the meteorological factors and thermal environment affected by it. Cheonggyecheon was selected as our subject as it is a great example of successful urban regeneration stream. As for physical characteristics, we allocated Type I (0.0%) and Type II (20.2%), depending on the green coverage ratio. As for numerical characteristics, at the point of Ba in which the riffle ends, the water temperature fell by $0.2^{\circ}C$ and the flow increased from 0.7m/s to 0.9 m/s with the dissolved oxygen increasing from 0.5mg/L to 0.6mg/L. As for meteorological factors surrounding the subject stream, the temperature dropped from $1.1^{\circ}C$ to $1.4^{\circ}C$ on average and relative humidity increased from 6.6% to 8.7%. Furthermore, there was an irregular change in wind velocity. According to the result of the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), the change in the values of Type I and II inside and on the surface of the subject stream was negligible. The downstream temperature in Type I fell from $0.3^{\circ}C$ to $0.6^{\circ}C$ and by $0.8^{\circ}C$ in Type II. As for vertical cooling effect, the change of water level was 120cm in Type I and 140cm in Type II. As for horizontal cooling effects, the value of Type I was increased from the point of Ba where the riffle ends and the value of Type II was on a steady decline.