• Title/Summary/Keyword: Performance-Based

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A Recidivism Prediction Model Based on XGBoost Considering Asymmetric Error Costs (비대칭 오류 비용을 고려한 XGBoost 기반 재범 예측 모델)

  • Won, Ha-Ram;Shim, Jae-Seung;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.127-137
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    • 2019
  • Recidivism prediction has been a subject of constant research by experts since the early 1970s. But it has become more important as committed crimes by recidivist steadily increase. Especially, in the 1990s, after the US and Canada adopted the 'Recidivism Risk Assessment Report' as a decisive criterion during trial and parole screening, research on recidivism prediction became more active. And in the same period, empirical studies on 'Recidivism Factors' were started even at Korea. Even though most recidivism prediction studies have so far focused on factors of recidivism or the accuracy of recidivism prediction, it is important to minimize the prediction misclassification cost, because recidivism prediction has an asymmetric error cost structure. In general, the cost of misrecognizing people who do not cause recidivism to cause recidivism is lower than the cost of incorrectly classifying people who would cause recidivism. Because the former increases only the additional monitoring costs, while the latter increases the amount of social, and economic costs. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an XGBoost(eXtream Gradient Boosting; XGB) based recidivism prediction model considering asymmetric error cost. In the first step of the model, XGB, being recognized as high performance ensemble method in the field of data mining, was applied. And the results of XGB were compared with various prediction models such as LOGIT(logistic regression analysis), DT(decision trees), ANN(artificial neural networks), and SVM(support vector machines). In the next step, the threshold is optimized to minimize the total misclassification cost, which is the weighted average of FNE(False Negative Error) and FPE(False Positive Error). To verify the usefulness of the model, the model was applied to a real recidivism prediction dataset. As a result, it was confirmed that the XGB model not only showed better prediction accuracy than other prediction models but also reduced the cost of misclassification most effectively.

A Study on the Thermal Conductivity Measurement for Planting Mats of Landscaping (조경용 식생매트의 열전도율 측정에 관한 연구)

  • Cha, Uk Jin;Yang, Geon Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.85-96
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    • 2018
  • Developed nations have implemented various policies to reduce greenhouse gases since the 1997 Kyoto Protocol in order to minimize the effects of global warming. Korea should also reduce energy consumption in the industrial sector, and the transportation and building sectors in order to achieve its greenhouse gas reduction target of 37 percent compared to the Business As Usual levels. The government implements various laws and regulations for reducing energy consumption. To reduce energy consumption in the building sector, in particular, the Energy Conservation Design Standards are enforced according to the 'Enforcement Support for Green Building Construction'. The amount of electricity used to maintain room temperature at $28^{\circ}C$ in these buildings have a 30% reduction (measured on the walls and rooftop) in power usage compared to buildings not required to meet these standards. Although the effect of these energy savings on landscaping is proven, this demonstration is not effective for energy saving since it is not a suitable method for the 'Energy Saving Design Standards of Buildings'. For landscaping to be effective as far as a component of energy reduction, the perfusion rate of the building should be calculated based on the thermal conductivity of the component materials for the energy saving designs with respect to the basis of Article 14 of the Green Building Act. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to ensure that the planting-based mats currently being widely used in the landscape industry can have insulating performance suitable for the 'Energy Saving Design Standards' of Buildings according to the 'Enable Green Building Construction Methods'.

Perception of Science Teachers on Integrated Science Practice (통합과학 실행에 대한 과학 교사의 인식)

  • Kim, Hyunjung;Ahn, Yumin
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.187-195
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to diagnose the operation status of high school integrated science newly introduced in the 2015 revised national curriculum and first applied in 2018, to examine teachers' perception on the new educational policy, and then based on this, extract implications for settling down the policy. A survey was administered to science teachers who participated in the in-service teacher training on integrated science, and the responses of 384 high school science teachers were analyzed. According to the results of the survey, integrated science was allotted six units to each school, and two or more teachers divided achievement standards and were responsible for them in many cases. Science teachers pointed to the increase of student-oriented activities as the biggest change due to the application of integrated science and also showed a positive attitude towards increasing the proportion of performance-based assessment, diversifying evaluation methods, increasing teacher consultations, and enhancing the holistic understanding of natural phenomenon, etc. In particular, teachers with 15 years or more of teaching experience were significantly positive about the increase of student-oriented activities, diverse assessment methods, and opportunities of teacher consultations. For teachers with a sub-major in science, teaching about non-majored contents was the most difficult and it was also difficult to determine the appropriate level of contents to teach. Teachers who majored common science, however, rarely complained about teaching non-majored content. In the case of two teachers in charge of integrated science, there was a statistically significant demand for subject matter knowledge as training content, and for mixed education incorporating theory and practice and customized training as a training method. In the case of one teacher responsible for the subject, there was a relatively lower demand. From these results, some implications for the successful implementation of integrated science were discussed.

Preliminary Study on the Development of a Performance Based Design Platform of Vertical Breakwater against Seismic Activity - Centering on the Weakened Shear Modulus of Soil as Shear Waves Go On (직립식 방파제 성능기반 내진 설계 Platform 개발을 위한 기초연구 - 전단파 횟수 누적에 따른 지반 강도 감소를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Jin Gyu;Cho, Yong Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.306-318
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    • 2018
  • In order to evaluate the seismic capacity of massive vertical type breakwaters which have intensively been deployed along the coast of South Korea over the last two decades, we carry out the preliminary numerical simulation against the PoHang, GyeongJu, Hachinohe 1, Hachinohe 2, Ofunato, and artificial seismic waves based on the measured time series of ground acceleration. Numerical result shows that significant sliding can be resulted in once non-negligible portion of seismic energy is shifted toward the longer period during its propagation process toward the ground surface in a form of shear wave. It is well known that during these propagation process, shear waves due to the seismic activity would be amplified, and non-negligible portion of seismic energy be shifted toward the longer period. Among these, the shift of seismic energy toward the longer period is induced by the viscosity and internal friction intrinsic in the soil. On the other hand, the amplification of shear waves can be attributed to the fact that the shear modulus is getting smaller toward the ground surface following the descending effective stress toward the ground surface. And the weakened intensity of soil as the number of attacking shear waves are accumulated can also contribute these phenomenon (Das, 1993). In this rationale, we constitute the numerical model using the model by Hardin and Drnevich (1972) for the weakened shear modulus as shear waves go on, and shear wave equation, in the numerical integration of which $Newmark-{\beta}$ method and Modified Newton-Raphson method are evoked to take nonlinear stress-strain relationship into account. It is shown that the numerical model proposed in this study could duplicate the well known features of seismic shear waves such as that a great deal of probability mass is shifted toward the larger amplitude and longer period when shear waves propagate toward the ground surface.

Economic Impact of HEMOS-Cloud Services for M&S Support (M&S 지원을 위한 HEMOS-Cloud 서비스의 경제적 효과)

  • Jung, Dae Yong;Seo, Dong Woo;Hwang, Jae Soon;Park, Sung Uk;Kim, Myung Il
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.10 no.10
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    • pp.261-268
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    • 2021
  • Cloud computing is a computing paradigm in which users can utilize computing resources in a pay-as-you-go manner. In a cloud system, resources can be dynamically scaled up and down to the user's on-demand so that the total cost of ownership can be reduced. The Modeling and Simulation (M&S) technology is a renowned simulation-based method to obtain engineering analysis and results through CAE software without actual experimental action. In general, M&S technology is utilized in Finite Element Analysis (FEA), Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Multibody dynamics (MBD), and optimization fields. The work procedure through M&S is divided into pre-processing, analysis, and post-processing steps. The pre/post-processing are GPU-intensive job that consists of 3D modeling jobs via CAE software, whereas analysis is CPU or GPU intensive. Because a general-purpose desktop needs plenty of time to analyze complicated 3D models, CAE software requires a high-end CPU and GPU-based workstation that can work fluently. In other words, for executing M&S, it is absolutely required to utilize high-performance computing resources. To mitigate the cost issue from equipping such tremendous computing resources, we propose HEMOS-Cloud service, an integrated cloud and cluster computing environment. The HEMOS-Cloud service provides CAE software and computing resources to users who want to experience M&S in business sectors or academics. In this paper, the economic ripple effect of HEMOS-Cloud service was analyzed by using industry-related analysis. The estimated results of using the experts-guided coefficients are the production inducement effect of KRW 7.4 billion, the value-added effect of KRW 4.1 billion, and the employment-inducing effect of 50 persons per KRW 1 billion.

Modeling and Implementation of Safety Test Device for Grounding System Based on IEC 60364 (IEC 60364의 접지방식에 기반한 안전성 평가 시험장치의 모델링 및 구현에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Soon-Sik;Han, Byeong-Gill;Lee, Hu-Dong;Ferreira, Marito;Rho, Dae-Seok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.599-609
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    • 2021
  • A novel grounding system, which is presented in IEC 60364, has been adopted since 2021. A safety evaluation for the human body on the grounding system is required due to the various characteristics of the touch voltage and current passing when the human body experiences an electric shock. The Korea Electrical Safety Corporation (KESCO) and Korea Electric Association (KEA) have been conducting a safety technical education on the grounding system. On the other hand, it is difficult to instruct the electrical safety manager because of a lack of safety evaluations for the test equipment on the grounding system. Therefore, this paper modeled and implemented a test device for a safety evaluation depending on the grounding system of IEC 60364. Namely, this paper presents the modeling of the test device for a safety evaluation using PSCAD/EMTDC S/W, which is composed of an AC grid section, s test device section on the grounding system, and a sub-device section. This paper implemented a test device for safety evaluation, which consisted of an AC grid section, TT grounding system section, TN-S grounding system section, and monitoring section. From the simulation and test results with the safety characteristics of the human body in the TT and TN-S grounding system, when the fault impedances are 0[Ω], 10[Ω], and 100[Ω], the currents passing through the human body in the TT grounding system are 104[mA], 87.4[mA], and 35.5[mA], respectively. The corresponding currents in the TN-S grounding system are 54.9[mA], 4.1[mA], and 0.4[mA], respectively. Based on the results, the protection performance for an electric shock to the human body in the TN-S system is better than the TT system. This can be improved when the existing grounding system is changed from the TT system to the TN-S system.

Study on the Application of Ultrasound Traits as Selection Trait in Hanwoo (한우 선발형질로써 초음파 형질의 활용방안 연구)

  • Choi, Tae Jeong;Choy, Yun Ho;Park, Byoungho;Cho, Kwang Hyun;Alam, M;Kang, Ha Yeon;Lee, Seung Soo;Lee, Jae Gu
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.117-126
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    • 2017
  • Hanwoo young bulls are selected based on performance test using the weight at 12 months and pedigree index comprising marbling score. Pedigree index was not based on the progeny tested data but the breeding value of the proven bulls; resulting a lower accuracy. The progeny testing of the young bulls was categorized into testing at farm and at the test station. The farm tested data was difficult to compare with those from test station data. Farm tested bulls had different slaughter ages than those for test station bulls. Therefore, this study had considered a different age at slaughter for respective records on ultrasound traits. Records on body weight at 12 months, ultrasound measures at 12 and 24 months(uIMF, uEMA, uBFT, and uRFT), and carcass traits(CWT, EMA, BFT, and MS) were collected from steers and bulls of Hanwoo national improvement scheme between 2008 and 2013. Fixed effects of batch, test date, test station, personnel for measurement, personnel for judging, and a linear covariate of weight at measurement were fitted in the animal models for ultrasound traits. The ranges of heritability estimates of the ultrasound traits at 12 and 24 months were 0.21-0.43 and 0.32-0.47, respectively. Ultrasound traits at 12 and 24 months between similar carcass traits was genetically correlated at 0.52-0.75 and 0.86-0.89, respectively.

A Machine Learning-based Total Production Time Prediction Method for Customized-Manufacturing Companies (주문생산 기업을 위한 기계학습 기반 총생산시간 예측 기법)

  • Park, Do-Myung;Choi, HyungRim;Park, Byung-Kwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.177-190
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    • 2021
  • Due to the development of the fourth industrial revolution technology, efforts are being made to improve areas that humans cannot handle by utilizing artificial intelligence techniques such as machine learning. Although on-demand production companies also want to reduce corporate risks such as delays in delivery by predicting total production time for orders, they are having difficulty predicting this because the total production time is all different for each order. The Theory of Constraints (TOC) theory was developed to find the least efficient areas to increase order throughput and reduce order total cost, but failed to provide a forecast of total production time. Order production varies from order to order due to various customer needs, so the total production time of individual orders can be measured postmortem, but it is difficult to predict in advance. The total measured production time of existing orders is also different, which has limitations that cannot be used as standard time. As a result, experienced managers rely on persimmons rather than on the use of the system, while inexperienced managers use simple management indicators (e.g., 60 days total production time for raw materials, 90 days total production time for steel plates, etc.). Too fast work instructions based on imperfections or indicators cause congestion, which leads to productivity degradation, and too late leads to increased production costs or failure to meet delivery dates due to emergency processing. Failure to meet the deadline will result in compensation for delayed compensation or adversely affect business and collection sectors. In this study, to address these problems, an entity that operates an order production system seeks to find a machine learning model that estimates the total production time of new orders. It uses orders, production, and process performance for materials used for machine learning. We compared and analyzed OLS, GLM Gamma, Extra Trees, and Random Forest algorithms as the best algorithms for estimating total production time and present the results.

Development of Prediction Model for the Na Content of Leaves of Spring Potatoes Using Hyperspectral Imagery (초분광 영상을 이용한 봄감자의 잎 Na 함량 예측 모델 개발)

  • Park, Jun-Woo;Kang, Ye-Seong;Ryu, Chan-Seok;Jang, Si-Hyeong;Kang, Kyung-Suk;Kim, Tae-Yang;Park, Min-Jun;Baek, Hyeon-Chan;Song, Hye-Young;Jun, Sae-Rom;Lee, Su-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.316-328
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the leaf Na content prediction model for spring potato was established using 400-1000 nm hyperspectral sensor to develop the multispectral sensor for the salinity monitoring in reclaimed land. The irrigation conditions were standard, drought, and salinity (2, 4, 8 dS/m), and the irrigation amount was calculated based on the amount of evaporation. The leaves' Na contents were measured 1st and 2nd weeks after starting irrigation in the vegetative, tuber formative, and tuber growing periods, respectively. The reflectance of the leaves was converted from 5 nm to 10 nm, 25 nm, and 50 nm of FWHM (full width at half maximum) based on the 10 nm wavelength intervals. Using the variance importance in projections of partial least square regression(PLSR-VIP), ten band ratios were selected as the variables to predict salinity damage levels with Na content of spring potato leaves. The MLR(Multiple linear regression) models were estimated by removing the band ratios one by one in the order of the lowest weight among the ten band ratios. The performance of models was compared by not only R2, MAPE but also the number of band ratios, optimal FWHM to develop the compact multispectral sensor. It was an advantage to use 25 nm of FWHM to predict the amount of Na in leaves for spring potatoes during the 1st and 2nd weeks vegetative and tuber formative periods and 2 weeks tuber growing periods. The selected bandpass filters were 15 bands and mainly in red and red-edge regions such as 430/440, 490/500, 500/510, 550/560, 570/580, 590/600, 640/650, 650/660, 670/680, 680/690, 690/700, 700/710, 710/720, 720/730, 730/740 nm.

Analysis of the Effect of Objective Functions on Hydrologic Model Calibration and Simulation (목적함수에 따른 매개변수 추정 및 수문모형 정확도 비교·분석)

  • Lee, Gi Ha;Yeon, Min Ho;Kim, Young Hun;Jung, Sung Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2022
  • An automatic optimization technique is used to estimate the optimal parameters of the hydrologic model, and different hydrologic response results can be provided depending on objective functions. In this study, the parameters of the event-based rainfall-runoff model were estimated using various objective functions, the reproducibility of the hydrograph according to the objective functions was evaluated, and appropriate objective functions were proposed. As the rainfall-runoff model, the storage function model(SFM), which is a lumped hydrologic model used for runoff simulation in the current Korean flood forecasting system, was selected. In order to evaluate the reproducibility of the hydrograph for each objective function, 9 rainfall events were selected for the Cheoncheon basin, which is the upstream basin of Yongdam Dam, and widely-used 7 objective functions were selected for parameter estimation of the SFM for each rainfall event. Then, the reproducibility of the simulated hydrograph using the optimal parameter sets based on the different objective functions was analyzed. As a result, RMSE, NSE, and RSR, which include the error square term in the objective function, showed the highest accuracy for all rainfall events except for Event 7. In addition, in the case of PBIAS and VE, which include an error term compared to the observed flow, it also showed relatively stable reproducibility of the hydrograph. However, in the case of MIA, which adjusts parameters sensitive to high flow and low flow simultaneously, the hydrograph reproducibility performance was found to be very low.