• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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• v.30 no.10
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• pp.1210-1219
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• 2001

Introduction : The purpose of this study was to analyze the safety, pullout strength and radiographic characteristics of unicortical and bicortical screws of cervical facet within cadaveric specimens and evaluate the influence of level of training on the positioning of these screws. Methods : Twenty-one cadavers, mean 78.9 years of age, underwent bilateral placement of 3.5mm AO lateral mass screw from C3-C6(n=168) using a slight variation of the Magerl technique. Intraoperative imaging was not used. The right side(unicortical) utilized only 14mm screws(effective length of 11mm) while on the left side to determine the length of the screw after the ventral cortex had been drilled. Three spine surgeons(attending, fellow, chief resident) with varying levels of spine training performed the procedure on seven cadavers each. All spines were harvested and lateral radiographs were taken. Individual cervical vertebrae were carefully dissected and then axial radiographs were taken. The screws were evaluated clinically and radiographically for their safety. Screws were graded clinically for their safety with respect to the spinal cord, facet joint, nerve root and vertebral artery. The grades consisted of the following categories : "satisfactory", "at risk" and "direct injury". Each screw was also graded according to its zone placement. Screw position was quantified by measuring a sagittal angle from the lateral radiograph and an axial angle from the axial radiograph. Pull-out force was determined for all screws using a material testing machine. Results : Dissection revealed that fifteen screws on the left side actually had only unicortical and not bicortical purchase as intended. The majority of screws(92.8%) were satisfactory in terms of safety. There were no injuries to the spinal cord. On the right side(unicortical), 98.9% of the screws were "satisfactory" and on the left side(bicortical) 68.1% were "satisfactory". There was a 5.8% incidence of direct arterial injury and a 17.4% incidence of direct nerve root injury with the bicortical screws. There were no "direct injuries" with the unicortical screws for the nerve root or vertebral artery. The unicortical screws had a 21.4% incidence of direct injury of the facet joint, while the bicortical screws had a 21.7% incidence. The majority of "direct injury" of bicortical screws were placed by the surgeon with the least experience. The performance of the resident surgeon was significantly different from the attending or fellow(p<0.05) in terms of safety of the nerve root and vertebral artery. The attending's performance was significantly better than the resident or fellow(p<0.05) in terms of safety of the facet joint. There was no relationship between the safety of a screw and its zone placement. The axial deviation angle measured $23.5{\pm}6.6$ degrees and $19.8{\pm}7.9$ degrees for the unicortical and bicortical screws, respectively. The resident surgeon had a significantly lower angle than the attending or fellow(p<0.05). The sagittal angle measured $66.3{\pm}7.0$ degrees and $62.3{\pm}7.9$ degrees for the unicortical and bicortical screws, respectively. The attending had a significantly lower sagittal angle than the fellow or resident(p<0.05). Thirty-three screws that entered the facet joint were tested for pull-out strength but excluded from the data because they were not lateral mass screws per-se and had deviated substantially from the intended final trajectory. The mean pull-out force for all screws was $542.9{\pm}296.6N$. There was no statistically significant difference between the pull-out force for unicortical($519.9{\pm}286.9N$) and bicortical($565.2{\pm}306N$) screws. There was no significant difference in pull-out strengths with respect to zone placement. Conclusion : It is our belief that the risk associated with bicortical purchase mandates formal spine training if it is to be done safely and accurately. Unicortical screws are safer regardless of level of training. It is apparent that 14mm lateral mass screws placed in a supero-lateral trajectory in the adult cervical spine provide an equivalent strength with a much lower risk of injury than the longer bicortical screws placed in a similar orientation.

• The Journal of Korean Academic Society of Nursing Education
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.220-235
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• 1998

The revolution of nursing curriculum has been focused on clinical competency for nursing graduates to flexibly respond to changes in societal health needs and disciplinary requirements. In this trend, the study was designed to identify basic concepts of nursing education that reflects the changes in societal needs and nursing discipline, and to develop the instrument to measure performance level in each dimension of clinical competency. The study was conducted in two phases. In phase 1, principal concepts consisted of nursing education were determined through literature review as well as series of discussion sessions on nursing philosophies and educational objectives among researchers. Though the process, the conceptual framework of competency based nursing curriculum was constructed with nursing process and professional role as horizontal threads, client, health needs, and nursing interventions as vertical threads. Then, items were developed to represent each dimension of competency : client and health need, nursing process, professional role, and nursing interventions. The total of 273 items were included as to represent clinical competency required for BSN graduates. In phase 2, questionnaires were distributed to nursing faculties of 41 BSN programs to validate the 273-item Instrument developed to measure competency. The total of 34 subjects returned the questionnaire with 81% of response rates. The subjects of the study had an average of 42 months of clinical experience and 13 years of education experience in various nursing areas with an age range of 30 to 52 years. The data were analyzed by utilizing SPSSWIN and the results are as follows. 1) The mean score of the nursing process dimension was supported most with the mean of 3.60(SD=0.32) compared to client and health need dimension(M=3.49, SD=.40), professional role(M=3.41, SD=.44), and nursing interventions(M=3.57, SD=.34). 2) The dimensions of competency were moderately correlated to each other with a range of r=.433 to r=.829, confirming that four dimensions of competency were related but distinct concepts. 3) The items of each dimension were analyzed based on its appropriateness. 'Assessing risk factors of the clients' were most highly supported in client and health need dimension. Most items of nursing process dimension were considered appropriate, while items related to efficient communication were well supported in professional role dimension. In nursing intervention dimension, items on basic nursing skills were highly supported while items on specific nursing interventions such as music therapy or art therapy were considered relatively inappropriate to competency for BSN graduates. The findings clearly showed that the current nursing education more emphasizes nursing interventions based on nursing process than other dimensions of competency. There is a need to reconceptualize nursing curriculum that is able to reflect more of nursing professional role and client/health need dimensions. Further research to validate the instrument by confirming competency dimensions of nursing graduates who are currently working at the hospital has been suggested.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.107-117
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• 2008

In this study, surveys and interviews are used to evaluate technological competitiveness of each product with respect to that of foreign leading firms, for seven leading domestic construction products which have been determined to have competitive edge in offshore markets, Such evaluation provides a more in depth study than previously conducted research, and is meaningful in that corporate level, rather than industry level, perspective is projected. Major findings of such evaluations are the following. First, as expected, it has been evaluated that domestic technological competitiveness in desalination plant and power plant has reached the point where it can compete with foreign leading firms. Moreover, a noteworthy result of the evaluation is that development program sector, including urban development of satellite cities, has reached considerable level of competitiveness in offshore market. In the case of the development market, domestic firms have accumulated sufficient experience in domestic market and engineering technology is not a decisive factor as in plant sector, and these factors lead to such an evaluation. Second, in the cases of gas, oil refinery and petro-chemical plants, domestic products' technological competitiveness that can contest in offshore market is still centered around production and construction. On the other hand, there are still weaknesses in license technology and basic design capabilities, which constitute the "value added" area. Third, skyscrapers, a promising product in offshore construction market and a product group which domestic firms have much performance record and projects in progress both in domestic and offshore markets, are considered. While direct comparison between skyscrapers and plant sector is not feasible, with the exception of production and construction, overall domestic capability in this sector has been assessed to be the lowest amongst those products that were surveyed. Fourth, it has been indicated that competitiveness is relatively higher in common technology than in key technology. In project management capability, it has been assessed that there are weaknesses in procedure document area. Also, a characteristic is the point that low overall assessments have been given across all product groups for corporate and management areas, not technological areas. Especially, financing, contracting/claim, risk management and investment on research and development received low evaluations. Fifth, it has been assessed that overall corporate and governmental supports are weak. This result is especially evident for corporate management and support areas across all product groups surveyed.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.47-52
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• 2014

Species distribution models have been widely applied in order to assess biodiversity, design reserve, manage habitat and predict climate change. However, SDMs has been used restrictively to the public and policy sectors owing to model uncertainty. Recent studies on ensemble and consensus models have been increased to reduce model uncertainty. This paper was carried out single model and multi model for Corylopsis coreana and compares two models. First, model evaluation was used AUC, kappa and TSS. TSS was the most effective method because it was easy to compare several models and convert binary maps. Second, both single and ensemble model show good performance and RF, Maxent and GBM was evaluated higher, GAM and SRE was evaluated lower relatively. Third, ensemble model tended to overestimate over single model. This problem can be solved by the suitable model selection and weighting through collaboration between field experts and modeler. Finally, we should identify causes and magnitude of model uncertainty and improve data quality and model methods in order to apply special decision-making support system and conservation planning, and when we make policy decisions using SDMs, we should recognize uncertainty and risk.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.13 no.11
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• pp.61-68
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• 2012

Most widely methods for reinforcement of soil utilized in Korea are anchor method, soil nail method and micro pile method. These methods are classified by the intended use of the structure to be constructed, but the reinforcement of the ground is accomplished contains in common the process of grouting work after inserting the reinforcements. Domestically, gravity grouting has been used mostly so far, but there has always been the risk of insufficient restoration of the loose ground area from the drill holes because the grouting is conducted only by gravity. On the other hand, pressure reinjection grouting may enhance the grouting quality by solving the problem of the existing grouting method considerably since it additionally reinjects grouting through pre-installed tube a certain time after the first grouting. Accordingly, this study evaluated the pullout characteristics by the grouting methods by performing model test on decomposed granite soil, and investigated the support increasing characteristics of reinforcements depending on the curing time, reinjection pressure, and uplift force variation of the pressure reinjection grouting. The result of this research shows that the pressure reinjection grouting demonstrated 1.1~1.3 times of performance of the gravity grouting, and suggests some analysis on optimal water content, reinjection pressure and curing time of the pressure reinjection grouting.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.389-397
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• 1998

For an effective and efficient management of large amounts of preservice/inservice inspection(PSI/ISI) data in nuclear power plants, an intellegent Windows 95-based data management program was developed. This program enables the prompt extraction of previously conducted PSI/ISI conditions and results so that the time-consuming data management, painstaking data processing and analysis in the past are avoided. The program extracts, and the associated remedies. Furthermore, additional inspection data and comments can be easily added or deleted for subsequent PSI/ISI operation. Although the initial version of the program was applied to Kori nuclear power plant, this program can be equally applied to other nuclear power plant. And also this program can be used to offer the fundamental data for application of evaluation data related to fracture mechanics analysis(FMA), probabilistic reliability assessment(PRA) of PSI/ISI results, performance demonstration initiative(PDI) and risk-informed ISI based on probability of detection(POD) information of ultrasonic examination. Besides, the program can be further developed as a unique PSI/ISI data management expert system that can be apart of PSI/ISI data management expert system that can be a part of PSI/ISI Total Support System(TSS) for Korean nuclear power plants.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.172-177
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• 2016

The phenolic compounds, antioxidant activity and neuronal cell protective effect of Cirsium japonicum extract were evaluated in this study. High performance liquid chromatography mass analysis showed that C. japonicum was composed of chlorogenic acid, linarin, and pectolinarin. C. japonicum extract showed its antioxidant activity with half-maximal inhibitory concentrations of 567 and $130{\mu}g/mL$ by DPPH and ABTS radical scavenging activity, respectively. The total antioxidant capacities of C. japonicum via DPPH, ABTS, and FRAP assays were 11.32, 100.15, and $12.76{\mu}g/mL$ trolox equivalents, respectively. In addition, the neuroprotective effect of C. japonicum extract was investigated by measuring cell viability via MTT, LDH and DCF-DA assay using $H_2O_2-damaged$ PC12 cells. C. japonicum extract showed neuronal cell protective effects in a dose-dependent manner. These results indicated that C. japonicum extract has potent antioxidant and neuronal protective effects. Therefore, C. japonicum can be regarded as an effective and safe functional food resource as natural antioxidants, and may decrease the risk of neurodegenerative disorders.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.117-126
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• 2020

A maritime object detection system is an intelligent assistance system to maritime autonomous surface ship(MASS). It detects automatically floating debris, which has a clash risk with objects in the surrounding water and used to be checked by a captain with a naked eye, at a similar level of accuracy to the human check method. It is used to detect objects around a ship. In the past, they were detected with information gathered from radars or sonar devices. With the development of artificial intelligence technology, intelligent CCTV installed in a ship are used to detect various types of floating debris on the course of sailing. If the speed of processing video data slows down due to the various requirements and complexity of MASS, however, there is no guarantee for safety as well as smooth service support. Trying to solve this issue, this study conducted research on the minimization of computation volumes for video data and the increased speed of data processing to detect maritime objects. Unlike previous studies that used the Hough transform algorithm to find the horizon and secure the areas of interest for the concerned objects, the present study proposed a new method of optimizing a binarization algorithm and finding areas whose locations were similar to actual objects in order to improve the speed. A maritime object detection system was materialized based on deep learning CNN to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method and assess the performance of the algorithm. The proposed algorithm performed at a speed that was 4 times faster than the old method while keeping the detection accuracy of the old method.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Construction Safety
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.70-75
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to conduct survey on the DfS system for employees who perform construction-related tasks, analyze the results, and present improvement directions. The results of the survey showed that the system was gradually being settled, with about 82% and 93% positive results on the recognition and necessity of the system. In addition, the three highest response rates for the improvement of the system were first, improving the expertise of DfS-related performance personnel, second, improving the awareness of DfS-related actors, and third, reflecting the appropriate costs associated with DfS. For the realization of the above improvements, it was proposed to prepare a curriculum for improving the professionalism of the staff, to implement an incentive system for improvement of perception, and to prepare appropriate payment criteria for preparing reports available during the construction phase. In addition, the Korea Infrastructure Safety and Technology Corporation will need to perform its active role in order to become a system for preemptive management of risk factors for construction accidents from the design stage.