• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.235-257
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• 2012

Recently the role of ports has been changed to satisfy flexibly needs of demands in global economy. A new concept for ports is not just a place for international trade but an important nodal point in logistics chain. The changing environment like this trend creates a high degree of uncertainty and leaves port managers confused with the question how to respond effectively to dynamic market. The latest studies provide that the port must have a good hinterland to achieve competitive advantages in a logistics chain. Korean Government announced "The Master Development Plan for Port Logistics Parks in Korea" in 2006. This contains the plan of hinterland construction of Busan New Port to achieve the status of logistics hub in Asian market. Previous studies rely solely on traditional DCF(discounted cash flow) analysis for investment of hinterland. However DCF method does not include irreversibility, uncertainty and the choice of timing for investment project. This thesis introduces a ROPM(real options pricing model) which overcomes the limitations of traditional valuation methods. The option valuations in this study utilize the Black-Scholes model, the binomial model and the MonteCarlo simulation to value investment opportunity of a port hinterland. In this thesis, an attempt is made to modify the NPV criterion by incorporating the real options approach, and its application is demonstrated in a hinterland construction investment plan. This research has conducted an empirical analysis by calculating economic value of the investment for a hinterland of Busan New Port.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.9
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• pp.729-741
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• 2015

This study examined the applicability of MBLRP (Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse) rainfall generation model for an urban flood simulation which is a type of Poisson cluster rainfall generation model. This study constructed XP-SWMM model for Namgajwa area of Hongjecheon basin, which is a two-dimensional pipe network-surface flood simulation program and computed a flood discharge and a flooded area with input data of synthetic rainfall time series of 200 years that were generated by the MBLRP model. This study compared the data of flood with synthetic rainfall and flood with corresponding values which were based on design rainfall. The results showed that the flooded area computed with MBLRP model was somewhat smaller than the corresponding values on the basis of the design. A degree of underestimation was from 8% (5 year) to 34% (200 year) and the degree of underestimation increased as a return period increased. This study is meaningful in that it proposes methodology that enables quantifiability of uncertain variables which are related to a flooding through Monte Carlo analysis of urban flooding simulation and applicability and limitations thereof.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.295-303
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• 2018

In the DBB delivery system, the design stage and the construction stage are separated. Because of this, design changes frequently occur, and problems such as construction cost overrun, schedule delay, and quality deterioration happen as well. Recently, in the construction industry CM at Risk(CM@R) delivery system, which can systematically solve the above-mentioned problems of DBB delivery system, meet various demands of clients, and overcome the limited cost and period. In the CM@R delivery system, the contractor negotiates for a maximum guaranteed price(GMP) with the client at the design stage, and the CM performer carries out the construction within the GMP. However, uncertainties are inherent in the GMP calculation because the calculation is based on unfinished drawings and documents. In this study, a Probabilistic Earlier GMP Calculation Method by combining a probabilistic tool of Monte Carlo simulation with a case based reasoning is proposed so that the uncertainty in GMP calculation is reflected. After the earlier GMP is calculated, a process to calculate the $2^{nd}$ GMP at the time of around 80 % of detailed deign and to negotiate with the client to fix the final GMP is proposed. The Probabilistic Earlier GMP Calculation Method is verified through the case study. In this study, researchers set the range of GMP through the proposed probabilistic GMP calculation and tried to reduce the risk through negotiation between the client and the CM performer. The proposed method and process would contribute to the successful introduction of CM@R in Korea.

• Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.133-147
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• 2005

Various types of ray-tracing methods are used to predict the quantity measures of radiation illumination, the uniformity of illumination, radiation performance of LCD BLU(Hack-Light Unit). The uniformity of radiation illumination is one of the most important design factor of BLU and is usually controlled by the diffusive-ink pattern printed on the bottom of light-guide panel of BLU. Therefore it is desirable to produce an improved (ideally, the optimal) ink pattern to achieve the best uniformity of radiation illumination. In this paper, we applied the Welder-Mead simplex-search method among various direct search method to compute the optimal ink pattern. Direct search methods are widely used to optimize the functions which are often highly nonlinear, unpredictably discontinuous, and nondifferentiable, The ink-pattern controlling the uniformity of radiation illumination is one type of these functions. In this paper, we found that simplex search methods are well suited to computing the optimal diffusive-ink pattern. In extensive numerical testing, we have found the simplex search method to be reasonably efficient and reliable at computing the optimal diffusive-ink pattern. The result also suggests that optimization can improve the functionality of simulation tools which are used to design LCD BLU.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.1-14
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• 2014

Both researchers and practitioners are showing an increased interested in interactive exhibition services. Interactive exhibition services are designed to directly respond to visitor responses in real time, so as to fully engage visitors' interest and enhance their satisfaction. In order to install an effective interactive exhibition service, it is essential to adopt intelligent technologies that enable accurate estimation of a visitor's emotional state from responses to exhibited stimulus. Studies undertaken so far have attempted to estimate the human emotional state, most of them doing so by gauging either facial expressions or audio responses. However, the most recent research suggests that, a multimodal approach that uses people's multiple responses simultaneously may lead to better estimation. Given this context, we propose a new multimodal emotional state estimation model that uses various responses including facial expressions, gestures, and movements measured by the Microsoft Kinect Sensor. In order to effectively handle a large amount of sensory data, we propose to use stratified sampling-based MRA (multiple regression analysis) as our estimation method. To validate the usefulness of the proposed model, we collected 602,599 responses and emotional state data with 274 variables from 15 people. When we applied our model to the data set, we found that our model estimated the levels of valence and arousal in the 10~15% error range. Since our proposed model is simple and stable, we expect that it will be applied not only in intelligent exhibition services, but also in other areas such as e-learning and personalized advertising.

• Journal of radiological science and technology
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.43-49
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• 2016

In this study, equivalent dose and LET (Linear Energy Transfer) calibration of CR-39 SSNTD (Solid State Nuclear Track Detector) were performed using 400 MeV/u C heavy ions in HIMAC (Heavy Ion Medical Accelerator in Chiba) for high LET radiation therapy. The irradiated CR-39 SSNDTs were etched according the etching condition of JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency). And the etched SSNTDs were analyzed by using Image J. Determined frequency mean dose (${\bar{y_D}}$)and dose-mean lineal energy (${\bar{y_F}}$)of 400 MeV/u C are about 8.5keV/mm and 10.1 keV/mm, respectively by using the CR-39 SSNTD. This value is very similar to the results calculated by GEANT4 Monte Carlo simulation and measured with TEPC (Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter) active radiation detector. We could determine the equivalent dose and LET calibration factors of CR-39. And we confirmed that the CR-39 SSNTD was useful for high LET radiation dosimetry in hadron radiotherapy.

• Journal of radiological science and technology
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.605-611
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• 2017

The structure of the actual detector was computed using the code of the PENELOPE. Using the standard mixed sources (450, 1,000 ml), compare the effectiveness of each energy according to various densities and height of the PENELOPE computer simulation, and calculate the effectiveness of the various environmental specimens and apply them to various environmental specimens to determine the lower limit. The values obtained by the obtained value were obtained by applying the obtained efficiency to the actual environmental specimens and obtaining the lower limit values. The density correction factor is 1.155 g of the density correction factor of $0.4g/cm^3$ (59.54keV), 1.153 (661 keV), $1.06g/cm^3$ 1.064 (1,836.04keV), 1.03, and 1.033. It was confirmed that the radioactivity concentration of environmental samples decreased as the amount of specimen was measured increases, and the MDA value decreased as time measured increases.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.451-464
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• 2008

Six sigma is the rating that signifies "best in clas", with only 3.4 defects per million units or operations. Higher sigma quality level is generally perceived by customers as improved performance by assigning a correspondingly higher satisfaction score. The process capability indices and the sigma level $Z_{st}$ have been widely used in six sigma industries to assess process performance. Most evaluations on process capability indices focus on point estimates, which may result in unreliable assessments of process performance. In this paper, we consider statistical inference for process capability indices $C_p$, $C_{pk}$ and $C_{pm}$. Also, we study better testing procedure on assessing sigma level $Z_{st}$ and capability index $C_{pm}$, for practitioners to use in determining whether a given process is capable. The proposed method is easy to use and the decision making is more reliable. Whether a process is clearly normal or nonnormal, our bootstrap testing procedure could be applied effectively without the complexity of calculation. A numerical result based on our proposed method is illustrated.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.459-471
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• 2010

Higher quality level is generally perceived by customers as improved performance by assigning a correspondingly higher satisfaction score. Usually, the quality level is measured by process capability indices. The index is used to determine whether a production process is capable of producing items within a specified tolerance. The third generation index $C_{pmk}$ is more powerful than two useful indices $C_p$ and $C_{pk}$. which have been widely used in six sigma industries to assess process performance. Most evaluations on process capability indices focus on point estimates, which may result in unreliable assessments of process performance. In this paper, we consider better testing procedure on assessing process capability index $C_{pmk}$ for practitioners to use in determining whether a given process is capable. It is easy to use the proposed method for assessing process capability index $C_{pmk}$. Whether a process is clearly normal or nonnormal, our bootstrap testing procedure could be applied effectively without the complexity of calculation. A numerical result based on our proposed method is illustrated.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.251-264
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• 2008

One of the crucial elements to fully facilitate the various benefits of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) is to obtain more reliable traffic monitoring in real time. To date, point and section-based traffic measurements have been available through existing surveillance technologies, such as loops and automatic vehicle identification (AVI) systems. However, seamless and more reliable traffic data are required for more effective traffic information provision and operations. Technology advancements including vehicle tracking and wireless communication enable the acceleration of the availability of individual vehicle travel information. This study presents a UBIquitous PRObe vehicle Surveillance System (UBIPROSS) using vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) wireless communications. Seamless vehicle travel information, including origin-destination information, speed, travel times, and other data, can be obtained by the proposed UBIPROSS. A set of parameters associated with functional requirements of the UBIPROSS, which include the market penetration rate (MPR) of equipped vehicles, V2V communication range, and travel time update interval, are investigated by a Monte Carlo simulation- (MCS) based evaluation framework. In addition, this paper describes prototypical implementation. Field test results and identified technical issues are also discussed. It is expected that the proposed system would be an invaluable precursor to develop a next-generation traffic surveillance system.