Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Application of the Poisson Cluster Rainfall Generation Model to the Urban Flood Analysis

포아송 클러스터 강우 생성 모형을 이용한 도시 홍수 해석

  • 박현진 (홍익대학교 대학원 토목공학과) ;
  • 양정석 (국민대학교 공과대학 건설시스템공학부) ;
  • 한재문 (홍익대학교 대학원 토목공학과) ;
  • 김동균 (홍익대학교 공과대학 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2015.04.14
  • Accepted : 2015.07.20
  • Published : 2015.09.30
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Abstract

This study examined the applicability of MBLRP (Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse) rainfall generation model for an urban flood simulation which is a type of Poisson cluster rainfall generation model. This study constructed XP-SWMM model for Namgajwa area of Hongjecheon basin, which is a two-dimensional pipe network-surface flood simulation program and computed a flood discharge and a flooded area with input data of synthetic rainfall time series of 200 years that were generated by the MBLRP model. This study compared the data of flood with synthetic rainfall and flood with corresponding values which were based on design rainfall. The results showed that the flooded area computed with MBLRP model was somewhat smaller than the corresponding values on the basis of the design. A degree of underestimation was from 8% (5 year) to 34% (200 year) and the degree of underestimation increased as a return period increased. This study is meaningful in that it proposes methodology that enables quantifiability of uncertain variables which are related to a flooding through Monte Carlo analysis of urban flooding simulation and applicability and limitations thereof.

본 연구에서는 포아송 클러스터 강우생성모형의 일종인 Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP) 강우생성 모형의 도시홍수 모의에 있어 적용성을 살펴보았다. 이를 위하여 서울 홍제천 유역의 남가좌 배수분구에 대하여 2차원 관망-지표면 홍수 모의프로그램인 XP-SWMM 모형을 구축하고, MBLRP 모형을 사용하여 생성된 200년 길이의 가상 강우 시계열을 입력 강우자료로 하여 홍수량, 침수면적을 산정하고 이를 설계 강우에 근거하여 산출된 값들과 비교하였다. 비교 결과, MBLRP 모형을 사용하여 산출된 홍수량 및 침수면적은 설계 강우에 근거한 값들과 비교하였을 때 다소 작은 값을 가졌고, 과소산 정의 정도는 8% (5년빈도)에서 34% (200년빈도)의 값을 가졌으며, 설계 강우의 재현기간에 따라 과소 산정의 정도는 증가하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 도시유역에서의 홍수 모의에 있어 몬테카를로 분석을 통한 침수관련 변수들의 불확실성을 정량적으로 표현할 수 있는 방법론을 제시하고 그 적용성 및 한계점을 제시했다는 점에서 그 의미를 찾을 수 있을 것이다.

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