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Economic Evaluation of Port Hinterlands Using Real Option -Focusing on the Case Study for Hinterland of Busan New Port-  

Kim, MyoungHee (한국해양대학교 해운경영학과)
Lee, Kihwan (한국해양대학교 해운경영학과)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Port Economic Association / v.28, no.3, 2012 , pp. 235-257 More about this Journal
Abstract
Recently the role of ports has been changed to satisfy flexibly needs of demands in global economy. A new concept for ports is not just a place for international trade but an important nodal point in logistics chain. The changing environment like this trend creates a high degree of uncertainty and leaves port managers confused with the question how to respond effectively to dynamic market. The latest studies provide that the port must have a good hinterland to achieve competitive advantages in a logistics chain. Korean Government announced "The Master Development Plan for Port Logistics Parks in Korea" in 2006. This contains the plan of hinterland construction of Busan New Port to achieve the status of logistics hub in Asian market. Previous studies rely solely on traditional DCF(discounted cash flow) analysis for investment of hinterland. However DCF method does not include irreversibility, uncertainty and the choice of timing for investment project. This thesis introduces a ROPM(real options pricing model) which overcomes the limitations of traditional valuation methods. The option valuations in this study utilize the Black-Scholes model, the binomial model and the MonteCarlo simulation to value investment opportunity of a port hinterland. In this thesis, an attempt is made to modify the NPV criterion by incorporating the real options approach, and its application is demonstrated in a hinterland construction investment plan. This research has conducted an empirical analysis by calculating economic value of the investment for a hinterland of Busan New Port.
Keywords
Port Hinterland; Valuation; Real Option; Uncertainty;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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