• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model-based parameter estimation

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Influences of Forest Management Activity on Growth and Diameter Distribution Models for Larix kaempferi Carriere Stands in South Korea (산림시업이 일본잎갈나무 임분의 생장과 직경분포모형에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Sun Joo;Lee, Young Jin
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.37-47
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    • 2018
  • The objective of this study was to analyze the influences of forest management activity on the diameter distribution of Larix kaempferi Carriere stands in South Korea. We used 232 managed stands data, 47 unmanaged stands data of National Forest Inventory for this study. We employed the Weibull distribution function for estimating diameter based on percentiles and parameter recovery method. The results revealed that the average diameter breast height movements and growth of tree in the managed stands higher than the unmanaged stands according to the scenario: age, site index, and tree density change. The finding shows the percentage of the total amount of large class diameter was also high in the managed stands. The results of this study could be apply for the estimation of multi-products of timbers per diameter classes and stand structure development for Larix kaempferi Carriere stands in South Korea.

A study on the estimation of bubble noise generated by orifice type bubble generators (오리피스형 공기분사기 생성 기포소음 추정 연구)

  • Park, Cheolsoo;Jeong, So Won;Kim, Gun Do;Moon, Ilsung;Kim, In kang
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.255-267
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, noise characteristics of bubbles created by an orifice-type bubble generator are studied. In order to understand the overall bubble noise characteristics, the bubble noise spectra proposed by Strasberg and Blake, respectively, are examined, and an air injection experiment was performed in the large cavitation tunnel of KRISO to measure the bubble noise. The experiments were performed under a quiescent condition and flow conditions using 5 types of air bubble generator. From the measurement results, the characteristics of the bubble noise spectrum according to the experimental conditions are observed, and the effect of each parameter on bubble noise is analyzed by regression analysis. Finally, empirical models based on the regression analysis for bubble noise are presented, and it is confirmed that the estimated bubble noise is in good agreement with the measured results.

Application of rock mass index in the prediction of mine water inrush and grouting quantity

  • Zhao, Jinhai;Liu, Qi;Jiang, Changbao;Defeng, Wang
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.503-515
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    • 2022
  • The permeability coefficient is an essential parameter for the study of seepage flow in fractured rock mass. This paper discusses the feasibility and application value of using readily available RQD (rock quality index) data to estimate mine water inflow and grouting quantity. Firstly, the influence of different fracture frequencies on permeability in a unit area was explored by combining numerical simulation and experiment, and the relationship between fracture frequencies and pressure and flow velocity at the monitoring point in fractured rock mass was obtained. Then, the stochastic function generation program was used to establish the flow analysis model in fractured rock mass to explore the relationship between flow velocity, pressure and analyze the universal law between fracture frequency and permeability. The concepts of fracture width and connectivity are introduced to modify the permeability calculation formula and grouting formula. Finally, based on the on-site grouting water control example, the rock mass quality index is used to estimate the mine water inflow and the grouting quantity. The results show that it is feasible to estimate the fracture frequency and then calculate the permeability coefficient by RQD. The relationship between fracture frequency and RQD is in accordance with exponential function, and the relationship between structure surface frequency and permeability is also in accordance with exponential function. The calculation results are in good agreement with the field monitoring results, which verifies the rationality of the calculation method. The relationship between the rock mass RQD index and the rock mass permeability established in this paper can be used to invert the mechanical parameters of the rock mass or to judge the permeability and safety of the rock mass by using the mechanical parameters of the rock mass, which is of great significance to the prediction of mine water inflow and the safety evaluation of water inrush disaster management.

An Improved Validation Technique for the Temporal Discrepancy when Estimated Solar Surface Insolation Compare with Ground-based Pyranometer: MTSAT-1R Data use (표면도달일사량 검증 시 발생하는 시간 불일치 조정을 통한 정확한 일사량 검증: MTSAT-1R 자료 이용)

  • Yeom, Jong-Min;Han, Kyung-Soo;Lee, Chang-Suk;Kim, Do-Yong
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.605-612
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    • 2008
  • In this study, we estimate solar surface insolation (SSI) by using physical methods with MTSAT-1R data. SSI is regarded as crucial parameter when interpreting solar-earth energy system, climate change, and agricultural production predict application. Most of SSI estimation model mainly uses ground based-measurement such as pyranometer to tune the constructed model and to validate retrieved SSI data from optical channels. When compared estimated SSI with pyranometer measurements, there are some systemic differences between those instruments. The pyranometer data observed upward-looking hemispherical solid angle and distributed hourly measurements data which are averaged every 2 minute instantaneous observation. Whereas MTSAT-1R channels data are taken instantaneously images at fixed measurement time over scan area, and are pixel-based observation with a much smaller solid angle view. Those temporal discrepancies result from systemic differences can induce validation error. In this study, we adjust hour when estimate SSI to improve the retrieved accurate SSI.

Evaluation of Drought Events Using the Rectangular Pulses Poisson Process Model (구형펄스모형을 이용한 가뭄사상의 평가)

  • Yoo, Chul-Sang;Kim, Dae-Ha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.4 s.165
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    • pp.373-382
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    • 2006
  • In this study a theoretical drought severity-duration-frequency analysis is performed based on a simple Rectangular Pulses Poisson Process Model(RPPM). Data set with various durations are prepared for a given truncation level, whose statistics are then derived to be used for parameter estimation. These parameters are then used for the theoretical drought severity-duration-frequency analysis. The analysis is considered for two cases; one is to consider the overlap probability and the other is not. The drought severity of considering the overlap probability increases more as the return period increases. However, the overlap probability itself decreases as the duration increases, which is because the occurrence probability of events decreases as the duration increases. Also, if the duration increases, the events rarely or even not occur, since parameters of the model cannot be estimated in those cases, so the drought severity may not be computed. This is an obvious limitation of the simple RPPM. In this study the return periods of the important drought events occurred in Seoul are estimated using the results of the study. If the return period of an event is assumed to be the longest one among those with various durations, the return periods of some important event in Seoul are estimated to be between 14 and 35 years. These return periods are not so long to indicate that these droughts can occur frequently.

Structural Safety Assessment Using Equation Error Function and Response Error Function (방정식 오차함수와 응답 오차함수를 사용한 구조 안전성 평가)

  • Park, Woo-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.10 no.10
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    • pp.2819-2830
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    • 2009
  • Load bearing structural members in a wide variety of applications accumulate damage over their service life. During experiment much effort and cost is needed for measuring structural safety assessment. The sparseness and errors of measured data have to be considered during the safety estimation of structures. This paper introduces parameter estimation and damage identification algorithm by a system identification using static and dynamic response. The equation error estimator and response error widely used in system identification are based on the minimization of least squared error between measured and calculated responses by a mathematical model of a structure. Since each estimator has a specific form of application in noisy environment and proposes different definitions for these forms. To study the behaviour of the estimators in noisy environment Using Monte Carlo simulation, and a data measured pertubation scheme is adopted to investigate the influence of measurement errors on identification results. The assessment result by static and dynamic response were compared, and the efficiency and applicabilities of the proposed algorithm are demonstrated through simulated static and dynamic responses of a dimensional truss type structures.

A Study on Price Volatility and Properties of Time-series for the Tangerine Price in Jeju (제주지역 감귤가격의 시계열적 특성 및 가격변동성에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Bong-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.212-217
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the volatility and properties of a time series for tangerine prices in Jeju using the GARCH model of Bollerslev(1986). First, it was found that the time series for the rate of change in tangerine prices had a thicker tail rather than a normal distribution. At a significance level of 1%, the Jarque-Bera statistic led to a rejection of the null hypothesis that the distribution of the time series for the rate of change in tangerine prices is normally distributed. Second, the correlation between the time series was high based on the Ljung-Box Q statistic, which was statistically verified through the ARCH-LM test. Third, the results of the GARCH(1,1) model estimation showed statistically significant results at a significance level of 1%, except for the constant of the mean equation. The persistence parameter value of the variance equation was estimated to be close to 1, which means that there is a high possibility that a similar level of volatility will be present in the future. Finally, it is expected that the results of this study can be used as basic data to optimize the government's tangerine supply and demand control policy.

Comparison of Algorithms for Generating Parametric Image of Cerebral Blood Flow Using ${H_2}^{15}O$ PET Positron Emission Tomography (${H_2}^{15}O$ PET을 이용한 뇌혈류 파라메트릭 영상 구성을 위한 알고리즘 비교)

  • Lee, Jae-Sung;Lee, Dong-Soo;Park, Kwang-Suk;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.288-300
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: To obtain regional blood flow and tissue-blood partition coefficient with time-activity curves from ${H_2}^{15}O$ PET, fitting of some parameters in the Kety model is conventionally accomplished by nonlinear least squares (NLS) analysis. However, NLS requires considerable compuation time then is impractical for pixel-by-pixel analysis to generate parametric images of these parameters. In this study, we investigated several fast parameter estimation methods for the parametric image generation and compared their statistical reliability and computational efficiency. Materials and Methods: These methods included linear least squres (LLS), linear weighted least squares (LWLS), linear generalized least squares (GLS), linear generalized weighted least squares (GWLS), weighted Integration (WI), and model-based clustering method (CAKS). ${H_2}^{15}O$ dynamic brain PET with Poisson noise component was simulated using numerical Zubal brain phantom. Error and bias in the estimation of rCBF and partition coefficient, and computation time in various noise environments was estimated and compared. In audition, parametric images from ${H_2}^{15}O$ dynamic brain PET data peformed on 16 healthy volunteers under various physiological conditions was compared to examine the utility of these methods for real human data. Results: These fast algorithms produced parametric images with similar image qualify and statistical reliability. When CAKS and LLS methods were used combinedly, computation time was significantly reduced and less than 30 seconds for $128{\times}128{\times}46$ images on Pentium III processor. Conclusion: Parametric images of rCBF and partition coefficient with good statistical properties can be generated with short computation time which is acceptable in clinical situation.

Estimation of Groundwater Recharge by Considering Runoff Process and Groundwater Level Variation in Watershed (유역 유출과정과 지하수위 변동을 고려한 분포형 지하수 함양량 산정방안)

  • Chung, Il-Moon;Kim, Nam-Won;Lee, Jeong-Woo
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2007
  • In Korea, there have been various methods of estimating groundwater recharge which generally can be subdivided into three types: baseflow separation method by means of groundwater recession curve, water budget analysis based on lumped conceptual model in watershed, and water table fluctuation method (WTF) by using the data from groundwater monitoring wells. However, groundwater recharge rate shows the spatial-temporal variability due to climatic condition, land use and hydrogeological heterogeneity, so these methods have various limits to deal with these characteristics. To overcome these limitations, we present a new method of estimating recharge based on water balance components from the SWAT-MODFLOW which is an integrated surface-ground water model. Groundwater levels in the interest area close to the stream have dynamics similar to stream flow, whereas levels further upslope respond to precipitation with a delay. As these behaviours are related to the physical process of recharge, it is needed to account for the time delay in aquifer recharge once the water exits the soil profile to represent these features. In SWAT, a single linear reservoir storage module with an exponential decay weighting function is used to compute the recharge from soil to aquifer on a given day. However, this module has some limitations expressing recharge variation when the delay time is too long and transient recharge trend does not match to the groundwater table time series, the multi-reservoir storage routing module which represents more realistic time delay through vadose zone is newly suggested in this study. In this module, the parameter related to the delay time should be optimized by checking the correlation between simulated recharge and observed groundwater levels. The final step of this procedure is to compare simulated groundwater table with observed one as well as to compare simulated watershed runoff with observed one. This method is applied to Mihocheon watershed in Korea for the purpose of testing the procedure of proper estimation of spatio-temporal groundwater recharge distribution. As the newly suggested method of estimating recharge has the advantages of effectiveness of watershed model as well as the accuracy of WTF method, the estimated daily recharge rate would be an advanced quantity reflecting the heterogeneity of hydrogeology, climatic condition, land use as well as physical behaviour of water in soil layers and aquifers.

Efficient Uncertainty Analysis of TOPMODEL Using Particle Swarm Optimization (입자군집최적화 알고리듬을 이용한 효율적인 TOPMODEL의 불확실도 분석)

  • Cho, Huidae;Kim, Dongkyun;Lee, Kanghee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.285-295
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    • 2014
  • We applied the ISPSO-GLUE method, which integrates the Isolated-Speciation-based Particle Swarm Optimization (ISPSO) with the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method, to the uncertainty analysis of the Topography Model (TOPMODEL) and compared its performance with that of the GLUE method. When we performed the same number of model runs for the both methods, we were able to identify the point where the performance of ISPSO-GLUE exceeded that of GLUE, after which ISPSOGLUE kept improving its performance steadily while GLUE did not. When we compared the 95% uncertainty bounds of the two methods, their general shapes and trends were very similar, but those of ISPSO-GLUE enclosed about 5.4 times more observed values than those of GLUE did. What it means is that ISPSOGLUE requires much less number of parameter samples to generate better performing uncertainty bounds. When compared to ISPSO-GLUE, GLUE overestimated uncertainty in the recession limb following the maximum peak streamflow. For this recession period, GLUE requires to find more behavioral models to reduce the uncertainty. ISPSO-GLUE can be a promising alternative to GLUE because the uncertainty bounds of the method were quantitatively superior to those of GLUE and, especially, computationally expensive hydrologic models are expected to greatly take advantage of the feature.