Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Efficient Uncertainty Analysis of TOPMODEL Using Particle Swarm Optimization

입자군집최적화 알고리듬을 이용한 효율적인 TOPMODEL의 불확실도 분석

  • Cho, Huidae (Staff Water Resources Engineer, Dewberry) ;
  • Kim, Dongkyun (Department of Civil Engineering, Hongik University) ;
  • Lee, Kanghee (Department of Civil Engineering, Hongik University)
  • 조희대 (미 듀베리사 수자원부) ;
  • 김동균 (홍익대학교 공과대학 토목공학과) ;
  • 이강희 (홍익대학교 공과대학 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2013.11.28
  • Accepted : 2014.02.07
  • Published : 2014.03.31
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Abstract

We applied the ISPSO-GLUE method, which integrates the Isolated-Speciation-based Particle Swarm Optimization (ISPSO) with the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method, to the uncertainty analysis of the Topography Model (TOPMODEL) and compared its performance with that of the GLUE method. When we performed the same number of model runs for the both methods, we were able to identify the point where the performance of ISPSO-GLUE exceeded that of GLUE, after which ISPSOGLUE kept improving its performance steadily while GLUE did not. When we compared the 95% uncertainty bounds of the two methods, their general shapes and trends were very similar, but those of ISPSO-GLUE enclosed about 5.4 times more observed values than those of GLUE did. What it means is that ISPSOGLUE requires much less number of parameter samples to generate better performing uncertainty bounds. When compared to ISPSO-GLUE, GLUE overestimated uncertainty in the recession limb following the maximum peak streamflow. For this recession period, GLUE requires to find more behavioral models to reduce the uncertainty. ISPSO-GLUE can be a promising alternative to GLUE because the uncertainty bounds of the method were quantitatively superior to those of GLUE and, especially, computationally expensive hydrologic models are expected to greatly take advantage of the feature.

멀티모달 최적화 알고리듬의 일종인 ISPSO와 불확실도 분석기법인 GLUE를 결합한 ISPSO-GLUE 기법을 TOPMODEL의 불확실도 분석에 적용하였으며, 그 결과를 GLUE 기법과 비교하였다. 두 기법 모두 같은 횟수만큼 모형을 실행하였을 때 ISPSO-GLUE 기법의 누적성능이 더 좋아지는 시점을 발견할 수 있었으며, 그 이후로도 ISPSO-GLUE 기법은 GLUE 기법과는 달리 점진적인 성능의 향상을 보여 주었다. 두 기법이 비슷한 모양과 양상의 95% 불확실도 구간을 생성하였다. 하지만 ISPSO-GLUE 기법이 약5.4배 더 많은 관측치를 포함하는 것으로 나타났으며 GLUE 기법에 비해 훨씬 적은횟수의 모형실행으로도 좋은 성능의 불확실도 구간을 얻을 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. ISPSO-GLUE 기법과 비교했을 때GLUE 기법이 최대 첨두유량의 감쇠곡선 부분에서 불확실도를 과대평가하였다. 이 시간대에 대해서는 GLUE의 경우 불확실도 를 줄이기 위해 더 많은 행동모형들을 찾을 필요가 있다. ISPSO-GLUE 기법이 정량적인 성능평가에서 훨씬 많은 관측치를 포함할 수 있었다는 것은 이 기법의 가능성을 잘 보여 주었다고 할 수 있으며, 특히 계산적으로 값비싼 수문모형에서는 보다 큰 성능의 차이를 보일 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

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