• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model-based evaluation

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Characteristics of chemical water quality and the empirical model analysis before and after the construction of Baekje Weir (금강수계 백제보 건설 전·후의 화학적 수질특성 및 경험적 모델 분석)

  • Kim, Yu-Jin;Lee, Sang-Jae;An, Kwang-Guk
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.48-59
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzed the water quality characteristics and developed empirical models prior to and after the construction of Baekje Weir, in the Geum River watershed between 2004-2017. The comparative evaluation of the surface water chemistry before and after the four major river projects on the weirs indicated that total phosphorus (TP), based on annual data, rapidly decrease after the construction of the weir while the total nitrogen(TN) decreased. Conversely, chlorophyll-a (CHL) concentration, which is a good indicator of primary productivity, increased after the construction of the weir together with an increase in specific conductivity. Simply put, the construction of the weir led to the decrease in concentrations of N and P due to the increased water residence time (WRT), whereas the CHL :TP ratio greatly increased in magnitude. The regression analysis of the empirical model indicated that CHL had no significant relation (r=0.068, p=0.6102, n=58) with TP before the weir construction, but had a relation with TP after the weir construction (r=0.286, p<0.05, n=56). Therefore, such conditions resulted in an increase in primary productivity on a given unit of phosphorus, resulting in frequent algal blooms. In contrast, seasonal suspended solids (SS) and TP increased during the monsoon period, compared to the pre-monsoon, thereby showing positive correlations (r>0.40, p<0.01, n=163) with precipitation. If the government consistently discharges water from the weir, the phosphorus concentration will be increased due to its reversion to a lotic waterbody from a lentic waterbody hereby reducing algal blooms in the future.

Evaluation of a Thermal Conductivity Prediction Model for Compacted Clay Based on a Machine Learning Method (기계학습법을 통한 압축 벤토나이트의 열전도도 추정 모델 평가)

  • Yoon, Seok;Bang, Hyun-Tae;Kim, Geon-Young;Jeon, Haemin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.123-131
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    • 2021
  • The buffer is a key component of an engineered barrier system that safeguards the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. Buffers are located between disposal canisters and host rock, and they can restrain the release of radionuclides and protect canisters from the inflow of ground water. Since considerable heat is released from a disposal canister to the surrounding buffer, the thermal conductivity of the buffer is a very important parameter in the entire disposal safety. For this reason, a lot of research has been conducted on thermal conductivity prediction models that consider various factors. In this study, the thermal conductivity of a buffer is estimated using the machine learning methods of: linear regression, decision tree, support vector machine (SVM), ensemble, Gaussian process regression (GPR), neural network, deep belief network, and genetic programming. In the results, the machine learning methods such as ensemble, genetic programming, SVM with cubic parameter, and GPR showed better performance compared with the regression model, with the ensemble with XGBoost and Gaussian process regression models showing best performance.

A Study on the Improvement of the Disaster Prevention and Control System for Underpasses by Analytic Hierarchy Process (계층분석법을 통한 지하차도 재해 예방 및 제어 시스템 개선 연구)

  • Kim, Phil Do;Kim, Kyoung Soo;Moon, Yoo Mi
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.734-746
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: Increase in the size and number of underpasses rises occurrence of disasters such as fire and flooding inundation in underpasses. In the occurrence of disasters, the underpasses are more vulnerable to expose of crucial disasters than the general roads due to they are built underground. Therefore, The purpose of this paper is to derive system improvement items to prevent and control disasters in underpasses. Method: A hierarchical model of disaster impact factors and alternatives was developed based on prior researches and expert advices on disaster analyses and impact factors in the underpasses. The developed model was employed for surveys of pairwise comparison, and rankings of improvement were determined by applying the AHP method. Result: With a consistency of the surveys, results of relative weights of evaluation criteria(traffic accidents, fire, flooding inundation) and alternatives(law, system/planning, maintenance/human factor/environment) shows that improvement of laws and system related to the fire disaster is a top priority to prevent and control disaster of the underpasses. Conclusion: From experts' point of view, strengthening laws and systems related to disater prevention facilities such as water spray facilities, external(ground) exit in relation to fire in underpasses showed that it is an alternative to prevent disasters and minimize damage to underpasses.

Evaluating meteorological and hydrological impacts on forest fire occurrences using partial least squares-structural equation modeling: a case of Gyeonggi-do (부분최소제곱 구조방정식모형을 이용한 경기도 지역 산불 발생 요인에 대한 기상 및 수문학적 요인의 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Dongwook;Yoo, Jiyoung;Son, Ho Jun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.145-156
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    • 2021
  • Forest fires have frequently occurred around the world, and the damages are increasing. In Korea, most forest fires are initiated by human activities, but climate factors such as temperature, humidity, and wind speed have a great impact on combustion environment of forest fires. In this study, therefore, based on statistics of forest fires in Gyeonggi-do over the past five years, meteorological and hydrological factors (i.e., temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and drought) were selected in order to quantitatively investigate causal relationships with forest fire. We applied a partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM), which is suitable for analyzing causality and predicting latent variables. The overall results indicated that the measurement and structural models of the PLS-SEM were statistically significant for all evaluation criteria, and meteorological factors such as humidity, temperature, and wind speed affected by amount of -0.42, 0.23 and 0.15 of standardized path coefficient, respectively, on forest fires, whereas hydrological factor such as drought had an effect of 0.23 on forest fires. Therefore, as a practical method, the suggested model can be used for analyzing and evaluating influencing factors of forest fire and also for planning response and preparation of forest fire disasters.

A study on the estimation and evaluation of ungauged reservoir inflow for local government's agricultural drought forecasting and warning (지자체 농업가뭄 예·경보를 위한 미계측 저수지의 유입량 추정 및 평가)

  • Choi, Jung-Ryel;Yoon, Hyeon-Cheol;Won, Chang-Hee;Lee, Byung-Hyun;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.395-405
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    • 2021
  • When issuing forecasts and alerts for agricultural drought, the relevant ministries only rely on the observation data from the reservoirs managed by the Korea Rural Community Corporation, which creates gaps between the drought analysis results at the local (si/gun) governments and the droughts actually experienced by local residents. Closing these gaps requires detailed local geoinformation on reservoirs, which in turn requires the information on reservoirs managed by local governments across Korea. However, installing water level and flow measurement equipment at all of the reservoirs would not be reasonable in terms of operation and cost effectiveness, and an alternate approach is required to efficiently generate information. In light of the above, this study validates and calibrates the parameters of the TANK model for reservoir basins, divided them into groups based on the characteristics of different basins, and applies the grouped parameters to unmeasured local government reservoirs to estimate and assess inflow. The findings show that the average determinant coefficient and the NSE of the group using rice paddies and inclinations are 0.63 and 0.62, respectively, indicating better results compared with the basin area and effective storage factors (determinant coefficient: 0.49, NSE: 0.47). The findings indicate the possibility of utilizing the information regarding unmeasured reservoirs managed by local governments.

A Study on Validating Causal Reasoning Ability Test for Children (아동용 인과추론능력검사 개발 예비 연구)

  • Shin, Jongho;Lee, Hyeon-Ju;Kim, Jeong-Ha;Hwang, hyeyoung;Gwon, Hui-Gyeong;Sim, Jeong-A
    • (The) Korean Journal of Educational Psychology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.367-384
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study was to develop picture testing instrument for measuring children's causal reasoning ability on events that can occur in daily life. The measurement instrument contains three domain of human development; haman behavior domain, human psychology domain, and natural/physical domain. Through this study, researchers designed a concept model based on theoretical framework and prior studies and investigated the reliability and validity of the measurement instrument which was developed in accordance with the concept model. For the empirical validation research, a pretest was conducted to 336 elementary school students in grade 2 to 4 in Seoul. Considering reliability and validity of the developed measurement instrument and factor loadings, researchers sorted out 18 questions. And then 18 question test and KICE Critical Thinking Ability Test was conducted to 509 elementary school students in grade 1 to 4 in Seoul. According to the result of the tests, the researchers sorted out final 12 questions. The Cronbach's alpha, reliability of the children's causal reasoning ability test consisted of the final 12 question, was significant as .72. Also, the result of exploratory factor analysis showed that factors of this test were haman behavior domain, human psychology domain, and natural/physical domain. Moreover, the correlation between the KEDI Reasoning Ability Test(2003) scores and the scores of the test developed in the current study was significant as .55. Finally, the result of the analysis about children's grade differences, the development by discrepancy of age was significant in total points and that of each domain. The children's causal reasoning ability test developed by this study can be useful not only for the evaluation of children's thinking ability but also for screening of the handicapped children in thinking ability development.

Operation of a 3-Year Training Program for Elementary and Secondary Administrators to Foster Creative Convergence Talent (창의융합 인재 양성을 위한 3년간의 초·중등 관리자 연수 프로그램 운영)

  • Jung, Yujin;Park, Namje
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.177-186
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    • 2021
  • The 2015 revised curriculum is structured around the core competencies of the 21st century, this is in line with the world's flow of education, such as OECD Education 2030. A future practical leading model was studied to provide a variety of creative teaching and learning experiences to elementary and Secondary students using intelligent information technology to cultivate core competencies such as ICT and computing thinking. In order for this practical model to stably settle the school field, the training was planned and operated to strengthen the creative convergence education capacity required by the teachers at the unit school through various types of the training. In particular, a nationwide administrators training program was operated for three years, reflecting the new curriculum, teaching and learning methods, and evaluation that can lead to future convergence talent training. In this paper, the perception of creative convergence education was investigated and analyzed considering the influence that administrators may have on the school field. Based on this, through the three-year operation results of the training, it was intended to establish a new training method for stable access to future creative convergence education under the post-corona era's social issues.

Evaluation of Technical Production Efficiency and Business Structure of Domestic Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Operators: Panel Stochastic Frontier Model Analysis for 16 Collective Energy Operators (국내 열병합발전사업의 기술적 생산효율성 추정 및 사업구조 평가: 16개 집단에너지사업자에 대한 패널 확률프론티어모형(SFA) 분석)

  • Lim, Hyungwoo;Kim, Jaehyeok;Shin, Donghyun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.557-579
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    • 2021
  • Collective energy is an intermediate stage in energy conversion and has a great influence on the power structure as a distributed power source. However, the problem of the collective energy business has recently emerged due to the worsening profitability of some collective energy operators. This study measured the technical efficiency of major operators through the estimation of the production efficiency of Korean collective energy operators, and based on this, we looked at ways to improve the profit structure of operators. After collecting detailed data from 16 collective energy operators between 2016 and 2019, the production efficiency of operators was estimated using the panel stochastic frontier model. As a result of the estimation, combined steam power operators showed the highest production efficiency and reverse CHP operators showed the lowest efficiency. Furthermore, as a result of examining the factors influencing profitability, it was confirmed that production efficiency has a positive effect on overall profitability. However, businesses with a high proportion of heat production, such as small district electricity operators, profitability was lower. This phenomenon is due to the structural limitations of the current heat sales market. Hence, the adjustment of the heat sales unit price is necessary to improve profitability of collective energy operators.

A Study on Optimization of Perovskite Solar Cell Light Absorption Layer Thin Film Based on Machine Learning (머신러닝 기반 페로브스카이트 태양전지 광흡수층 박막 최적화를 위한 연구)

  • Ha, Jae-jun;Lee, Jun-hyuk;Oh, Ju-young;Lee, Dong-geun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.7
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2022
  • The perovskite solar cell is an active part of research in renewable energy fields such as solar energy, wind, hydroelectric power, marine energy, bioenergy, and hydrogen energy to replace fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas, which will gradually disappear as power demand increases due to the increase in use of the Internet of Things and Virtual environments due to the 4th industrial revolution. The perovskite solar cell is a solar cell device using an organic-inorganic hybrid material having a perovskite structure, and has advantages of replacing existing silicon solar cells with high efficiency, low cost solutions, and low temperature processes. In order to optimize the light absorption layer thin film predicted by the existing empirical method, reliability must be verified through device characteristics evaluation. However, since it costs a lot to evaluate the characteristics of the light-absorbing layer thin film device, the number of tests is limited. In order to solve this problem, the development and applicability of a clear and valid model using machine learning or artificial intelligence model as an auxiliary means for optimizing the light absorption layer thin film are considered infinite. In this study, to estimate the light absorption layer thin-film optimization of perovskite solar cells, the regression models of the support vector machine's linear kernel, R.B.F kernel, polynomial kernel, and sigmoid kernel were compared to verify the accuracy difference for each kernel function.

A Study on the Development of Public Design Strategy Based on the Service Design Methodology -Focus on Signboard renovation Business Jungangro, Chung-yang (서비스 디자인 방법론을 활용한 지역 활성화 전략 연구 - 청양군 간판개선사업 중앙로 일대를 중심으로)

  • Chung, Yong-Jin;Kim, So-Yeon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.380-389
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    • 2022
  • Service design refers to an activity to design a user's service experience and a design area for professionally executing it. In order to design services from the people's point of view away from the supplier-oriented policy decisions in the past, the recent public participation business model using the service design methodology is increasing. In particular, the Ministry of Public Administration and Security formed the 'National Design Team' in 2014 to design services from the perspective of the public throughout the policy process. The public participatory policy model is being operated in which the public as policy consumers, service designers and public officials as suppliers participate in the overall policy process to develop and develop public services through service design techniques. This study is meaningful in that it presented the developmental direction of the actual project site through the case of the National Design Team sign improvement project with the goal of establishing a regional revitalization strategy using the service design methodology. However, as this study is about the current project, verification of the application of future project sites and user satisfaction evaluation have not been conducted. When the project is completed in the future, it is necessary to conduct a project satisfaction survey targeting consumers.