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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.3.145

Evaluating meteorological and hydrological impacts on forest fire occurrences using partial least squares-structural equation modeling: a case of Gyeonggi-do  

Kim, Dongwook (Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University)
Yoo, Jiyoung (Research Institute of Engineering Technology, Hanyang University)
Son, Ho Jun (Department of Smart City Engineering, Hanyang University)
Kim, Tae-Woong (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering / Smart City Engineering, Hanyang University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.54, no.3, 2021 , pp. 145-156 More about this Journal
Abstract
Forest fires have frequently occurred around the world, and the damages are increasing. In Korea, most forest fires are initiated by human activities, but climate factors such as temperature, humidity, and wind speed have a great impact on combustion environment of forest fires. In this study, therefore, based on statistics of forest fires in Gyeonggi-do over the past five years, meteorological and hydrological factors (i.e., temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and drought) were selected in order to quantitatively investigate causal relationships with forest fire. We applied a partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM), which is suitable for analyzing causality and predicting latent variables. The overall results indicated that the measurement and structural models of the PLS-SEM were statistically significant for all evaluation criteria, and meteorological factors such as humidity, temperature, and wind speed affected by amount of -0.42, 0.23 and 0.15 of standardized path coefficient, respectively, on forest fires, whereas hydrological factor such as drought had an effect of 0.23 on forest fires. Therefore, as a practical method, the suggested model can be used for analyzing and evaluating influencing factors of forest fire and also for planning response and preparation of forest fire disasters.
Keywords
Partial least squares structural equation modeling; Forest fire; Temperature; Humidity; Wind speed; Precipitation; Drought;
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