• Title/Summary/Keyword: Markov chain Monte Carlo

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Bayesian Filter-Based Mobile Tracking under Realistic Network Setting (실제 네트워크를 고려한 베이지안 필터 기반 이동단말 위치 추적)

  • Kim, Hyowon;Kim, Sunwoo
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.41 no.9
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    • pp.1060-1068
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    • 2016
  • The range-free localization using connectivity information has problems of mobile tracking. This paper proposes two Bayesian filter-based mobile tracking algorithms considering a propagation scenario. Kalman and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) particle filters are applied according to linearity of two measurement models. Measurement models of the Kalman and MCMC particle filter-based algorithms respectively are defined as connectivity between mobiles, information fusion of connectivity information and received signal strength (RSS) from neighbors within one-hop. To perform the accurate simulation, we consider a real indoor map of shopping mall and degree of radio irregularity (DOI) model. According to obstacles between mobiles, we assume two types of DOIs. We show the superiority of the proposed algorithm over existing range-free algorithms through MATLAB simulations.

Reliability Estimation of a Two Mixture Exponential Model Using Gibbs sampler

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Kim, Pyong-Koo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
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    • 1998.11a
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    • pp.225-232
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    • 1998
  • A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method with data augmentation is developed to compute the features of the posterior distribution. This data augmentation approach facilitates the specification of the transitional measure in the Markov Chain. Bayesian analysis of the mixture exponential model discusses using the Gibbs sampler. Parameter and reliability estimators are obtained. A numerical study is provided.

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Inference of Parameters for Superposition with Goel-Okumoto model and Weibull model Using Gibbs Sampler

  • Heecheul Kim
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.169-180
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    • 1999
  • A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method with development of computation is used to be the software system reliability probability model. For Bayesian estimator considering computational problem and theoretical justification we studies relation Markov Chain with Gibbs sampling. Special case of GOS with Superposition for Goel-Okumoto and Weibull models using Gibbs sampling and Metropolis algorithm considered. In this paper discuss Bayesian computation and model selection using posterior predictive likelihood criterion. We consider in this paper data using method by Cox-Lewis. A numerical example with a simulated data set is given.

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Maximum penalized likelihood estimation for a stress-strength reliability model using complete and incomplete data

  • Hassan, Marwa Khalil
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.355-371
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    • 2018
  • The two parameter negative exponential distribution has many practical applications in queuing theory such as the service times of agents in system, the time it takes before your next telephone call, the time until a radioactive practical decays, the distance between mutations on a DNA strand, and the extreme values of annual snowfall or rainfall; consequently, has many applications in reliability systems. This paper considers an estimation problem of stress-strength model with two parameter negative parameter exponential distribution. We introduce a maximum penalized likelihood method, Bayes estimator using Lindley approximation to estimate stress-strength model and compare the proposed estimators with regular maximum likelihood estimator for complete data. We also introduce a maximum penalized likelihood method, Bayes estimator using a Markov chain Mote Carlo technique for incomplete data. A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to compare stress-strength model estimates. Real data is used as a practical application of the proposed model.

A Bayesian Wavelet Threshold Approach for Image Denoising

  • Ahn, Yun-Kee;Park, Il-Su;Rhee, Sung-Suk
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.109-115
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    • 2001
  • Wavelet coefficients are known to have decorrelating properties, since wavelet is orthonormal transformation. but empirically, those wavelet coefficients of images, like edges, are not statistically independent. Jansen and Bultheel(1999) developed the empirical Bayes approach to improve the classical threshold algorithm using local characterization in Markov random field. They consider the clustering of significant wavelet coefficients with uniform distribution. In this paper, we developed wavelet thresholding algorithm using Laplacian distribution which is more realistic model.

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A generalized regime-switching integer-valued GARCH(1, 1) model and its volatility forecasting

  • Lee, Jiyoung;Hwang, Eunju
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.29-42
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    • 2018
  • We combine the integer-valued GARCH(1, 1) model with a generalized regime-switching model to propose a dynamic count time series model. Our model adopts Markov-chains with time-varying dependent transition probabilities to model dynamic count time series called the generalized regime-switching integer-valued GARCH(1, 1) (GRS-INGARCH(1, 1)) models. We derive a recursive formula of the conditional probability of the regime in the Markov-chain given the past information, in terms of transition probabilities of the Markov-chain and the Poisson parameters of the INGARCH(1, 1) process. In addition, we also study the forecasting of the Poisson parameter as well as the cumulative impulse response function of the model, which is a measure for the persistence of volatility. A Monte-Carlo simulation is conducted to see the performances of volatility forecasting and behaviors of cumulative impulse response coefficients as well as conditional maximum likelihood estimation; consequently, a real data application is given.

Thermal Transfer Analysis of Micro Flow Sensor using by Markov Chain MCM (Markov 연쇄 MCM을 이용한 마이크로 흐름센서 열전달 해석)

  • Cha, Kyung-Hwan;Kim, Tae-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.12 no.12
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    • pp.2253-2258
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    • 2008
  • To design micro flow sensor varying depending on temperature of driving heater in the detector of Oxide semiconductor, Markov chain MCM(MCMCM), which is a kind of stochastic and microscopic method, was introduced. The formulation for the thermal transfer equation based on the FDM to obtain the MCMCM solution was performed and investigated, in steady state case. MCMCM simulation was successfully applied, so that its application can be expanded to a three-dimensional model with inhomogeneous material and complicated boundary.

Prediction in run-off triangle using Bayesian linear model (삼각분할표 자료에서 베이지안 모형을 이용한 예측)

  • Lee, Ju-Mi;Lim, Jo-Han;Hahn, Kyu-S.;Lee, Kyeong-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.411-423
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    • 2009
  • In the current paper, by extending Verall (1990)'s work, we propose a new Bayesian model for analyzing run-off triangle data. While Verall's (1990) work only account for the calendar year and evolvement time effects, our model further accounts for the "absolute time" effects. We also suggest a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method that can be used for estimating the proposed model. We apply our proposed method to analyzing three empirical examples. The results demonstrate that our method significantly reduces prediction error when compared with the existing methods.

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Reliability Analysis Under Input Variable and Metamodel Uncertainty Using Simulation Method Based on Bayesian Approach (베이지안 접근법을 이용한 입력변수 및 근사모델 불확실성 하에 서의 신뢰성 분석)

  • An, Da-Wn;Won, Jun-Ho;Kim, Eun-Jeong;Choi, Joo-Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.33 no.10
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    • pp.1163-1170
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    • 2009
  • Reliability analysis is of great importance in the advanced product design, which is to evaluate reliability due to the associated uncertainties. There are three types of uncertainties: the first is the aleatory uncertainty which is related with inherent physical randomness that is completely described by a suitable probability model. The second is the epistemic uncertainty, which results from the lack of knowledge due to the insufficient data. These two uncertainties are encountered in the input variables such as dimensional tolerances, material properties and loading conditions. The third is the metamodel uncertainty which arises from the approximation of the response function. In this study, an integrated method for the reliability analysis is proposed that can address all these uncertainties in a single Bayesian framework. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is employed to facilitate the simulation of the posterior distribution. Mathematical and engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed method.

Bayesian Analysis for the Zero-inflated Regression Models (영과잉 회귀모형에 대한 베이지안 분석)

  • Jang, Hak-Jin;Kang, Yun-Hee;Lee, S.;Kim, Seong-W.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.603-613
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    • 2008
  • We often encounter the situation that discrete count data have a large portion of zeros. In this case, it is not appropriate to analyze the data based on standard regression models such as the poisson or negative binomial regression models. In this article, we consider Bayesian analysis for two commonly used models. They are zero-inflated poisson and negative binomial regression models. We use the Bayes factor as a model selection tool and computation is proceeded via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Crash count data are analyzed to support theoretical results.