• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.351-365
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• 2019

This study aims to predict the changes in population distribution in Korea by considering spatio-temporal characteristics of major migration reasons. For the purpose, we analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of each major migration reason(such as job, family, housing, and education) and estimate the transition probability, respectively. By appling Markov chain model processes with the ChapmanKolmogorov equation based on the transition probability, we predict the changes in the population distribution for the next six years. As the results, we found that there were differences of population changes by regions, while there were geographic movements into metropolitan areas and cities in general. The methodologies and the results presented in this study can be utilized for the provision of customized planning policies. In the long run, it can be used as a basis for planning and enforcing regionally tailored policies that strengthen inflow factors and improve outflow factors based on the trends of population inflow and outflow by region by movement factors as well as identify the patterns of population inflow and outflow in each region and predict future population volatility.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.5 s.166
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• pp.453-466
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• 2006

The objective of this study was to analyze the changes in the hydrological environment in Soyanggang-dam watershed due to climate change results (in yews 2050 and 2100) which were simulated using CCCma CGCM2 based on SRES A2 and B2. The SRES A2 and B2 were used to estimate NDVI values for selected land use using the relation of NDVI-Temperature using linear regression of observed data (in years 1998$\sim$2002). Land use change based on SRES A2 and B2 was estimated every 5- and 10-year period using the CA-Markov technique based on the 1985, 1990, 1995 and 2000 land cover map classified by Landsat TM satellite images. As a result, the trend in land use change in each land class was reflected. When land use changes in years 2050 and 2100 were simulated using the CA-Markov method, the forest class area declined while the urban, bareground and grassland classes increased. When simulation was done further for future scenarios, the transition change converged and no increasing trend was reflected. The impact assessment of evapotranspiration was conducted by comparing the observed data with the computed results based on three cases supposition scenarios of meteorological data (temperature, global radiation and wind speed) using the FAO Penman-Monteith method. The results showed that the runoff was reduced by about 50% compared with the present hydrologic condition when each SRES and periods were compared. If there was no land use change, the runoff would decline further to about 3$\sim$5%.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
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• 2004.04a
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• pp.413-418
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• 2004

The bounded adjustment is known to be more efficient than repeated adjustment when the cost is incurred for engineering process control. The procedure of the bounded adjustment is to adjust the process when the one-step predicted deviation exceeds the adjustment limit by the amount of the prediction. In this paper, two run rules are proposed and studied in order to improve the efficiency of the traditional bounded adjustment procedure. The efficiency is studied in terms of the standardized cost through Monte Carlo simulation when the procedure is operated with and without the run rules. The adjustment procedure operated with run rules turns out to be more robust for changes in the process and cost parameters. The Markov chain approach for calculating the properties of the run rules is also studied.

• Journal of Korea Planning Association
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• v.53 no.7
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• pp.5-22
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• 2018

While the competitiveness of small and medium sized cities has become important for balanced development at the national scale, they have experienced continuous decline in population and employment, particularly those in non-capital regions. In addition, some of small and medium sized cities have been classified into shrinking cities that have declined due to their long-term structural reasons. To address these issues, a regional approach, by which a hub city and its surrounding small and medium sized cities can collaborate has been suggested. Given this background, the purpose of this study is to identify and delineate hub cities and their impact areas by using travel data as a functional network index. This study uses a centrality index to identify the hub cities of small and medium sized cities and Markov-chain model and cluster analysis to delineate regional boundaries. The mean first passage time (MFPT) generated from the Markov-chain model can be interpreted as functional distance of each region. The study suggests a methodological approach delineating the boundaries of regions incorporating functional relationships of hub cities and their impact areas, and provides 59 hub cities and their impact areas. The results also provide policy implications for regional spatial planning that addresses appropriate planning boundaries of regions for enhancing the economic competitiveness of small and medium sized cities and ensuring services for shrinking cities.

• Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.555-562
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• 2010

After starting digital terrestrial broadcasting, there have been a number oftrials to provide new services like data broadcasting on a spare bandwidth of a DTV channel. Recently, the Push-VOD service, which provides A/V contents on that bandwidth, gets more attention and is being standardized as NRT(Non-Real-Time) by ATSC. However, it is highly probable that the contents transmitted in this way contain many errors due to the DTV receiving environment. Thus, in order to improve the reliability of transmission, the contents should be transmitted repeatedly several times, considering the unidirectional property of DTV terrestrial network. In this paper, we propose a method to calculate the optimal number of repetitions to transmit each contents in a way that minimizes the number of errors occured, when trying to transmit several contents to the receiver in a restricted time, using Markov-chain modeling and dynamic programming approach.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.321-330
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• 2016

Run expectancy (RE) is the mean number of runs scored from a specific base runner/outs situation of an inning to the end of the inning. Win expectancy (WE) is the probability that a particular team will win the game at a specific game state such as half-inning, score difference, outs, and/or runners on base. In this paper, we derive RE and WE for the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) League based on six-year data from 2007 to 2012 using a Markov chain model.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 2008.06c
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• pp.289-294
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• 2008

어떤 자연언어 문서가 전달하려는 의미는 그 텍스트의 성격에 따라 아주 명확할 수도(예: 뉴스 문서), 아주 불분명할 수도 있다(예: 시). 이 연구는 이러한 '의미의 명확성(semantic transparency)'을 정량적으로 측정할 수 있다고 가정하고, 이 의미의 명확성을 판단하는 데에 단어들의 연쇄(word association)의 확률통계적 성질들이 어떻게 기능하는지에 대해 논한다. 이를 위해 특정 단어가 연쇄체를 형성하면서 발생하는 neighboring frequency와 degeneracy를 중심으로 Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme을 적용하여 의미망('Semantic Hypernetwork')으로 학습시킨 후 문서의 구성 단어들과 그 집합들 간의 연결 상태를 파악하였다. 우리는 의미적으로 그 표상이 분명하게 나뉘는 문서들(뉴스와 시)을 대상으로 이 모델이 어떻게 이들의 의미적 명확성을 분류하는지 분석하였다. Neighboring frequency와 degeneracy, 이 두 속성이 언어구조에서의 의미망 기억과 학습 탐색 기제에 유의한 기질로서 제안될 수 있다. 본 연구의 주요 결과로 1) 텍스트의 의미론적 투명성을 구별하는 통계적 증거와, 2) 문서의 의미구조에 대한 새로운 기질 발견, 3) 기존의 문서의 카테고리 별 분류와는 다른 방식의 분류 방식 제안을 들 수 있다.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.20 no.7
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• pp.2159-2166
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• 1996

The stochastic properties of variation in fatigue crack growth are important in reliability and stability of structures. In this study,the stochastic model for the variation of fatigue crack growth rate was proposed in consideration of nonhomogeneity of materials. For this model, experiments were ocnducted on 7075-T6 aluminum alloy under the constant stress intensity factor range. The variation of fatigue crack growth rate was expressed by random variables Z and r based on the variation of material coefficients C and m in the paris-Erodogan's equation. The distribution of fatigue life with respect to the stress intensity factor range was evaluated by the stochastic Markov chain model based on the Paris-Erdogan's equation. The merit of proposed model is that only a small number of test are required to determine this this function, and fatigue crack growth life is easily predicted at the given stress intensity factor range.

• Water for future
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.155-166
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• 1996

A finite element model for simulating gradually and rapidly varied unsteady flow in open channel is developed based on dynamic wave equation using Petrov-Galerkin method. A matrix stability analysis shows the selective damping of short wave lengths and excellent phase accuracies achived by Petrov-Galerkin method. Whereas the Preissmann scheme displays less selective damping and poor phase accuracies, and Bubnov-Galerkin method shows nondissipative characteristics whicn causes a divergence problem in short wave length. The analysis also shows that the Petrov-Galerkin method displays the desirable combination of selective damping of high frequency progressive waves over a wide range of Courant number and good phase accuracy at low Courant number. Therefore, the Petrov-Galerkin can be effectively applied to gradually and rapidly varied unsteady flow.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.857-865
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• 2013

Extreme rainfall causes heavy losses in human life and properties. Hence many works have been done to predict extreme rainfall by using extreme value distributions. In this study, we use a generalized extreme value distribution to derive the posterior predictive density with hierarchical Bayesian approach based on the data of Seoul area from 1973 to 2010. It becomes clear that the probability of the extreme rainfall is increasing for last 20 years in Seoul area and the model proposed works relatively well for both point prediction and predictive interval approach.