Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2016.29.2.321

Run expectancy and win expectancy in the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) League  

Moon, Hyung Woo (Institute of Industrial Technology Research Center, Changwon National University)
Woo, Yong Tae (Department of Computer Engineering, Changwon National University)
Shin, Yang Woo (Department of Statistics, Changwon National University)
Publication Information
The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics / v.29, no.2, 2016 , pp. 321-330 More about this Journal
Abstract
Run expectancy (RE) is the mean number of runs scored from a specific base runner/outs situation of an inning to the end of the inning. Win expectancy (WE) is the probability that a particular team will win the game at a specific game state such as half-inning, score difference, outs, and/or runners on base. In this paper, we derive RE and WE for the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) League based on six-year data from 2007 to 2012 using a Markov chain model.
Keywords
baseball; run expectancy; win expectancy; run values; win values; Markov chain;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Bukiet, B., Harold, E. R., and Palacios, J. L. (1997). A Markov chain approach to baseball, Operations Research, 45, 14-23.   DOI
2 Hirotsu, N. and Wright, M. (2003). A Markov chain approach to optimal pinch hitting strategies in a designated hitter rule baseball game, Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan, 46, 353-371.   DOI
3 Hirotsu, N. and Wright, M. (2005). Modelling a baseball game to optimise pitcher substitution strategies incorporating handedness of players, IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 16, 179-194.   DOI
4 Jeong, J. S. (2014). Efficient Estimation Model of Hitter using Big Data Analysis in Korean Baseball League, Master Thesis, Changwon National University (in Korean).
5 Moon, H. W., Woo, Y. T., and Shin, Y. W. (2013). Analysis of the Korean baseball league using a Markov chain model, The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 26, 649-659.   DOI
6 Sokol, J. S. (2003). A robust heuristic for batting order optimization under uncertainty, Journal of Heuristics, 9, 353-370.   DOI
7 Tango, T., Lichtman, M., and Dolphin, A. (2006). The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, TMA Press.