• 제목/요약/키워드: Marginal Data Density

검색결과 22건 처리시간 0.029초

한국 서해안의 해상풍력발전 부존량 평가 (Assessment of Offshore Wind Power Potential in the Western Seas of Korea)

  • 고동휘;정신택;강금석
    • 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.266-273
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구에서는 국내 서해안의 해상풍력 발전을 위한 적지를 검토하기 위해 기상청에서 제공하는 6개 지점(서수도, 가대암, 십이동파, 갈매여, 해수서, 지귀도)의 2014년 연간 풍속 자료를 수집하고 이를 분석하였다. 관측된 풍속 자료는 Rayleigh 모델과 Weibull 모델에 적합하였으며, 풍속 출현빈도에 따라 연간 부존량을 추정하였다. 풍력발전기 모델로는 GWE-3kH(3 kW급) 터빈과 GWE-10KU (10 kW급) 터빈을 선정하였으며 이의 성능곡선을 이용하였다. 그 결과, 서수도, 가대암, 십이동파, 갈매여, 해수서, 지귀도의 연평균 풍속은 각각 4.60, 4.5, 5.00, 5.13, 5.51, 5.90 m/s로 나타났으며, 연간 발전량은 10,622.752, 11,313.05, 13,509.41, 14,899.55, 17,106.13, 19,660.85kWh로 나타났다. 6개 지점의 연평균에너지 밀도는 전체적으로 poor와 marginal 계급으로 나타났으며, 터빈 이용률은 지귀도가 22.44%로 가장 높게 나타났다.

The oceanic condition of the Tsushima Warm Current region the southern part of the East Sea (Sea of Japan) In June, 1996

  • 이충일;조규대
    • 해양환경안전학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 해양환경안전학회 2003년도 추계학술발표회
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    • pp.167-174
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    • 2003
  • Oceanic conditions of the Tsushirm Wann Current (1WC) region in the southern area if the East Sea (the Japan Sea) are examined using data obtained from a CREAMS (Circulation Research if the East Asian Marginal Seas) cruise in June 1996. In 1990s, a lower temperature appears in $19\%$ and in this period, two branch of the TWC exist and the first branch of the TWC flows inshore if the Japanese coastal region compared to tfr1t in the other years, especially in the sfr1llower water layer at less th:1n about 2mm. The TWC cored with the higher salinity (>34.6 psu) is clearly observed over the continental shelf zone in the Japanese coastal region and offshore and identified by geostrophic calculation Intrusion if the TWC into the East Sea through the Korea Strait (the Tsushima Strait) makes the density structure in the water column change and the water mass in the TWC region is unstable based on Brunt- Vaisala frequency.

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Design wind speed prediction suitable for different parent sample distributions

  • Zhao, Lin;Hu, Xiaonong;Ge, Yaojun
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제33권6호
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    • pp.423-435
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    • 2021
  • Although existing algorithms can predict wind speed using historical observation data, for engineering feasibility, most use moment methods and probability density functions to estimate fitted parameters. However, extreme wind speed prediction accuracy for long-term return periods is not always dependent on how the optimized frequency distribution curves are obtained; long-term return periods emphasize general distribution effects rather than marginal distributions, which are closely related to potential extreme values. Moreover, there are different wind speed parent sample types; how to theoretically select the proper extreme value distribution is uncertain. The influence of different sampling time intervals has not been evaluated in the fitting process. To overcome these shortcomings, updated steps are introduced, involving parameter sensitivity analysis for different sampling time intervals. The extreme value prediction accuracy of unknown parent samples is also discussed. Probability analysis of mean wind is combined with estimation of the probability plot correlation coefficient and the maximum likelihood method; an iterative estimation algorithm is proposed. With the updated steps and comparison using a Monte Carlo simulation, a fitting policy suitable for different parent distributions is proposed; its feasibility is demonstrated in extreme wind speed evaluations at Longhua and Chuansha meteorological stations in Shanghai, China.

Complex Segregation Analysis of Total Milk Yield in Churra Dairy Ewes

  • Ilahi, Houcine;Othmane, M. Houcine
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • 제24권3호
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    • pp.330-335
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    • 2011
  • The mode of inheritance of total milk yield and its genetic parameters were investigated in Churra dairy sheep through segregation analyses using a Monte Carlo Markov Chains (MCMC) method. Data which consisted of 7,126 lactations belonging to 5,154 ewes were collected between 1999 and 2002 from 15 Spanish Churra dairy flocks. A postulated major gene was assumed to be additive and priors used for variance components were uniform. Based on 50 000 Gibbs samples from ten replicates chains of 100,000 cycles, the estimated marginal posterior means${\pm}$posterior standard deviations of variance components of milk yield were $23.17{\pm}18.42$, $65.20{\pm}25.05$, $120.40{\pm}42.12$ and $420.83{\pm}40.26$ for major gene variance ($\sigma_G^2$), polygenic variance ($\sigma_u^2$), permanent environmental variance ($\sigma_{pe}^2$) and error variance ($\sigma_e^2$), respectively. The results of this study showed the postulated major locus was not significant, and the 95% highest posterior density regions ($HPDs_{95%}$) of most major gene parameters included 0, and particularly for the major gene variance. The estimated transmission probabilities for the 95% highest posterior density regions ($HPDs_{95%}$) were overlapped. These results indicated that segregation of a major gene was unlikely and that the mode of inheritance of total milk yield in Churra dairy sheep is purely polygenic. Based on 50,000 Gibbs samples from ten replicates chains of 100,000 cycles, the estimated polygenic heritability and repeatability were $h^2=0.20{\pm}0.05$ and r=$0.34{\pm}0.06$, respectively.

Analysis and probabilistic modeling of wind characteristics of an arch bridge using structural health monitoring data during typhoons

  • Ye, X.W.;Xi, P.S.;Su, Y.H.;Chen, B.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제63권6호
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    • pp.809-824
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    • 2017
  • The accurate evaluation of wind characteristics and wind-induced structural responses during a typhoon is of significant importance for bridge design and safety assessment. This paper presents an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm-based angular-linear approach for probabilistic modeling of field-measured wind characteristics. The proposed method has been applied to model the wind speed and direction data during typhoons recorded by the structural health monitoring (SHM) system instrumented on the arch Jiubao Bridge located in Hangzhou, China. In the summer of 2015, three typhoons, i.e., Typhoon Chan-hom, Typhoon Soudelor and Typhoon Goni, made landfall in the east of China and then struck the Jiubao Bridge. By analyzing the wind monitoring data such as the wind speed and direction measured by three anemometers during typhoons, the wind characteristics during typhoons are derived, including the average wind speed and direction, turbulence intensity, gust factor, turbulence integral scale, and power spectral density (PSD). An EM algorithm-based angular-linear modeling approach is proposed for modeling the joint distribution of the wind speed and direction. For the marginal distribution of the wind speed, the finite mixture of two-parameter Weibull distribution is employed, and the finite mixture of von Mises distribution is used to represent the wind direction. The parameters of each distribution model are estimated by use of the EM algorithm, and the optimal model is determined by the values of $R^2$ statistic and the Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The results indicate that the stochastic properties of the wind field around the bridge site during typhoons are effectively characterized by the proposed EM algorithm-based angular-linear modeling approach. The formulated joint distribution of the wind speed and direction can serve as a solid foundation for the purpose of accurately evaluating the typhoon-induced fatigue damage of long-span bridges.

변동진폭하중 하에서 균열성장예지를 위한 베이지안 모델변수 추정법 (Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Prognosis of Crack Growth under Variable Amplitude Loading)

  • 임상혁;안다운;최주호
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제35권10호
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    • pp.1299-1306
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    • 2011
  • 본 연구에서는 측정된 균열 데이터를 토대로 변동하중 하에서의 균열성장모델 변수들을 베이지안 모델변수 추정 방법을 통해서 확률적인 분포로 구하는 방법을 제시하였다. 모델변수의 확률분포를 구하기 위해 Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) 샘플링 방법을 이용하였다. 변동하중 하에서는 균열성장 모델이 더욱 복잡해 짐에 따라 기존의 MCMC 기법으로는 확률분포를 잘 구하지 못하므로 주변확률밀도분포를 제안함수로 사용하는 MCMC 기법을 새롭게 제안하였다. 모델변수의 추정을 위해 여러 크기의 일정 진폭 하중 하에서 시편시험을 수행하여 얻은 균열성장 데이터를 이용하였다. 추정된 변수들을 사용하여 변동하중 하에서의 시편에 대해 균열성장 예측을 수행하였고, 이를 실제 시험 데이터를 통해서 검증하였다.

임플란트 식립 유형에 따른 후향적 연구 (Retrospective studies of dental implant placement at each intraoral site and situation)

  • 홍지연;채경준;정의원;김창성;조규성;채중규;김종관;최성호
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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    • 제37권4호
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    • pp.805-824
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    • 2007
  • Purpose: Developments in micro/macrostructures of implants and surgical techniques brought out stable outcomes of implant dentistry. The aim of this study was to evaluate the distributions of implant patients, the types of implanted sites, and the success or survival rates of various implant systems and to analyze the implant placement done at each specificintraoral site and situation. Materials and Methods: The data of dental implantations collected between 1992 and 2006 at the Department of Periodontology in 00000 University Hospital were analyzed. Results: 1. Largest part of the patients were at the age of 40s and 50s in bothgender who lost their teeth mostly by periodontaldiseases and caries at the posterior intraoral sites as major ones. Bone densities of type II(mandible) and III(maxilla) were likely to be seen with quantity of type B. Lengths of the implants between 10 and 15 mm and wide platform took the largest part. 2. Survival rates of $Implantium^{(R)}(98.8%)$, $Xive^{(R)}(100%)$ and ITI $TE^{(R)}(100%)$ were high when $Frialit-2^{(R)}$ showed 82%(poor bone density area) or 87.2%(combined with additional therapy). $IMZ^{(R)}$ had lowest cumulative survival(67.5%) and success rate(49.4%) amongst all. 3. Replacement with 2 wide or 3 regular platforms showed no significant differences in survival rate and marginal bone loss atmandibular posterior area. In single restoration of mandibular second molar, 5-year success rate of machined surface $Br{\aa}nemark^{(R)}(70.37%)$ was lower than that of rough surface $ITI^{(R)}$ SLA(100%). 4. Replacement of single tooth in anterior area showed high survival rate of 94.5%. 5. The success rates of $Br{\aa}nemark$ Ti-Unite and ITI SLA at posterior maxilla with poor bone density both showed stable outcomes. 6. 10-year cumulative survival rate of implants with maxillary sinus augmentation by lateral window approach appeared to be 96.60%. Low survival rate(75%) was shown when there were more than two complications combined. Height of grafted bone remained stable above the implant apex. Conclusions : Rough surfaced implants showed stable outcomes in most of the situation including poor bone density and additional therapy combined.

The Oceanic Condition of the Tsushima Warm Current Region in the Southern Part of the East Sea (Sea of Japan) in June, 1996.

  • Lee, Chung-Il;Cho, Kyu-Dae;Yun, Jong-Hwui
    • 해양환경안전학회지
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2003
  • 1996년 6월에 실시된 CREAMS 항해 관측 자료를 이용하여 동해 남부 해역의 해황을 분석하였다. 1996년은 1990년∼1999년 사이의 다른 해에 비해 동해 남부 해역에 저수온 현상이 나타났으며, 이러한 현상은 일본 연안을 따라 이동하는 쓰시마난류의 지류가 더욱더 연안에 근접하여 이동하는 것과 관련이 있다. 쓰시마난류의 분포는 수심 200m 이천의 대륙붕 위에 존재하는 core 형태의 고염분수 분포와 지형류의 분포로부터 확인된다. 해수의 안정도 계산결과로부터 고온 고염분수인 쓰시마 난류의 유입은 연안역의 연직 밀도 구조에 영향을 주게 되며, 이로 인하여 수주의 불안정한 상태를 초래하는 요인 중 한가지로 작용하는 것으로 나타난다.

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치조열 환자의 장골이식술 후 예후 평가 (A Prognosis Evaluation after Iliac Bone Graft in Cleft Alveolus Patients)

  • 홍진호;소병수;백진아;신효근
    • 대한구순구개열학회지
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 2001
  • Alveolar cleft exists in 75% of cleft patients, In alveolar cleft patients, alar base is widening, palatal fistular formation, maxillary growth disturbance & tooth loss of adjacent area is raised, Alveolar bone grafting, especially iliac bone grafting, is a general treatment method. As operation timing, bone grafting is classified with primary, early secondary, secondary, & late secondary, Here we report cleft width, marginal bone height, bone resorption rate, grafted shape & bone densities after secondary iliac bone grafting was done in the Dept. of oral and maxillofacial surgery of chonbuk national university hospital. We compared cleft width to bone resorption rate and grafted shape. Also, alveolar bone densities of grafted and contralateral site was compared with Emago 3 package? (Oral Diagonostic System, The Netherlands), The data obtained were analyzed using Spearman's rho coefficients and sign test with SPSS for window, The results were obtained as follows. 1. As alveolar cleft width is increase, bone resorption rate is, too. This relation showed significant difference(P<.01). 2, In proximal & distal area, alvolar cleft width and bone graft contour after bone grafting had a reverse proportional difference. It was not significant difference(P>.05). 3. After 3 month, in bone density results by using Emago 3 package? with periapical standard view, occlusal view & panoramic view, differences between grafted bone and alveolar bone of contralateral site didn't show a significant difference(P>.05). Thus, differences of bone densities in the alveolar bones didn't exist.

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울릉분지와 동해 해산의 기원과 발달과정에 대한 해양지구물리학적 연구 (Marine Geophysical Constraints on the Origin and Evolution of Ulleung Basin and the Seamounts in the East Sea)

  • 김진호;박수철;강무희;김경오;한현철
    • 자원환경지질
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    • 제38권6호
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    • pp.643-656
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    • 2005
  • 동해는 일본분지, 야마토 분지, 울릉분지 등 큰 3개의 해양분지와 크고 작은 고지대(topographic hihgs) 등으로 구성되어 있고, 주변해(marginal sea) 또는 후배호 분지 (back-arc basin)로 분류되며 태평양판, 필리핀판 등이 주변해 위치하고 있다. 동해의 남서쪽에 위치한 울릉분지는 평균수심 약 1500 미터, 최대수심 약 2500 미터를 보이며, 2000 미터 등 심선을 따라 동해의 일본 분지와 연결되어 있다. 분지 내에서 해저면 경사는 대체적으로 서쪽이 크게 나타나며, 남쪽과 동쪽의 경사는 이에 비하여 상대적으로 작게 나타난다. 지진계(OBS) 자료와 탄성파 자료 등에 의해 밝혀진 울릉분지의 지각 두께는 북쪽으로 그리고, 한국 연안 쪽으로 갈수록 두꺼워지는 경향을 보이며, 퇴적물의 두께는 울릉분지 남서쪽으로 갈수록 점차 두꺼워져 최대 약 12km에 이른다 울릉분지의 지각은 열개된 대륙지각(rifted continental crust), 신장된 대륙지각, 해저확장 초기단계에 형성된 해양지각 등 다양하게 제시되고 있으나 현재까지 구체적 증거는 없다. 수심 및 중력자료에 의하면, 울릉분지의 축은 북서-남동 방향으로 발달하고 있다. 또한, 후리에어-이상의 분포도 수심 자료와 유사하게 북서-남동 방향의 축을 중심으로 대칭성을 보이고 있으며, 퇴적물의 두께 분포 역시 북서쪽에서 남동 방향으로 진행하면서 일반적으로 두꺼워지는 양상을 보이고 있다. 울릉분지가 상대적으로 절은 연령에 해당하는 지각임에도 불구하고, 전체적으로는 후리에어-이상 값이 $-40\~50mGal$ 정도의 낮은 특징을 보이는데 이것은 울릉분지를 구성하는 지각과 퇴적물의 밀도가 일본분지와 야마토 분지를 구성하는 물질에 비하여 상대적으로 낮다는 것을 의미한다.나타났고, 이에 대한 적극적인 대안으로 의사와 간호사를 위한 교육프로그램 개발과 교육이 절실히 필요한데 일시적이고 일회적인 교육보다는 지속적이고 장기적이고 자동적으로 운영되는 체계가 필요하다.후 32.4$\pm$4.4, 32.1$\pm$4.5, 술 후 1일에 33.4$\pm$5.0, 31.7$\pm$5.1였다(repeated measures ANOVA, p < 0.05). 술 후 출혈량(mL)은 RAP군과 대조군에서 술 후 6시간에 357.2$\pm$ 177.1, 411.7 $\pm$ 279.5, 술 후 24시간에 599.4$\pm$145.6, 678.8 $\pm$256.4였다(t-test, p < 0.05). 동종 수혈은 RAP군에서 34명 중 7명에서(20.6$\%$), 대조군에서는 46명중 16명에서(34.8$\%$) 시행되어, RAP군에서 유의하게 빈도가 낮았다(Chi-square test, p < 0.05). 결론: 역행성 자가 충전법은 심폐바이패스의 충전에 의한 혈액희석을 최소화함으로서, 개심술 후 출혈과 동종수혈을 또한 줄이는 데 효과적인 방법이 될 수 있다고 생각된다.타내지 않았다.성 교사, 가정 전공 교사가 그렇지 않은 교사보다 해석적, 해방적 행동목표를 더 중요하게 인식하고 있었다. 특히 가정교육 철학을 배운 경험이 있는 교사가 그렇지 않은 교사보다 해방적 행동체계 목표를 중요시하는 것으로 나타났다. 이 연구 결과는, 실천 비판적인 가정 교과의 본질을 구현하기 위해서는 주생활 영역의 교육과정에 기술적, 해석적, 해방적 행동에 대한 목표들을 고루 포함하여야 하며 특히