• Title/Summary/Keyword: MW Model

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A study on short-term wind power forecasting using time series models (시계열 모형을 이용한 단기 풍력발전 예측 연구)

  • Park, Soo-Hyun;Kim, Sahm
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.1373-1383
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    • 2016
  • The wind energy industry and wind power generation have increased; consequently, the stable supply of the wind power has become an important issue. It is important to accurately predict the wind power with short-term basis in order to make a reliable planning for the power supply and demand of wind power. In this paper, we first analyzed the speed, power and the directions of the wind. The neural network and the time series models (ARMA, ARMAX, ARMA-GARCH, Holt Winters) for wind power generation forecasting were compared based on mean absolute error (MAE). For one to three hour-ahead forecast, ARMA-GARCH model was outperformed, and the neural network method showed a better performance in the six hour-ahead forecast.

Modeling of Torrefaction process for agro-byproduct I : Rate constant & mass reduction model (농업부산물 반탄화 공정 예측 모델 I : 반응속도 상수 도출 및 질량감소 모델 정립)

  • Park, Sun Young;Lee, Sang Yeol;Joo, Sang Yeon;Cho, La Hoon;Oh, Kwang Cheol;Lee, Seo Hyeon;Jeong, In Seon;Lee, Chung Geon;Kim, Dae Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Agricultural Machinery Conference
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    • 2017.04a
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    • pp.32-32
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    • 2017
  • 2012년부터 도입된 "신재생에너지 의무할당제(RPS)"로 인하여 500MW이상의 설비 용량을 갖춘 발전소의 경우 총발전량에서 일정 비율을 신재생에너지로 공급하여야 한다. 이러한 신재생에너지 중 농업부산물은 목질계 바이오매스의 한 종류로 '탄소중립(Carbon Neutral)' 연료이며 기존 화석연료와 혼소로 활용 할 수 있는 장점을 지니고 있다. 그러나 낮은 발열량, 운송 및 저장비용, 일정하지 않은 연소특성의 문제로 인하여 대부분 노지에 방치되거나 버려지고 있다. 이러한 버려지는 농업부산물을 효율적으로 활용하기 위한 방법 중 하나로 반탄화(Torrefacation) 처리가 대두되고 있다. 반탄화 처리 시, 발열량이 증대되며, 저장과 이송에서의 이점을 갖게 된다. 그러나, 반탄화는 공정 과정중 질량손실에 따른 에너지 총량의 감소한다는 단점을 가지고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 효율적인 반탄화공정을 위한 질량감소모델을 제시 하고자한다. 승온 속도(heating rate)를 $7.5^{\circ}C/min$, $15^{\circ}C/min$, $22.5^{\circ}C/min$의 조건에서의 열중량분석 결과를 토대로 속도모델식(Arrhenius method, Ingraham & Marrier method 등)을 적용하여, 반응속도상수를 도출하였다. 이 반응속도상수를 이용하여 질량감소 모델을 정립하였고, 이를 실험결과와 비교, 검증하였다.

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Numerical Analysis of Nonlinear Longitudinal Combustion Instability in LRE Using Pressure-Sensitive Time-Lag Hypothesis (시간지연 모델을 이용한 액체로켓엔진의 축방향 비선형 연소불안정 해석)

  • Kim Seong-Ku;Choi Hwan Seok;Park Tae Seon;Kim Yong-Mo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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    • v.y2005m4
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    • pp.281-287
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    • 2005
  • Nonlinear behaviors such as steep-fronted wave motions and a finite amplitude limit cycle often accompanying combustion instabilities have been numerically investigated using a characteristic-based approximate Riemann solver and the well-known ${\eta}-{\tau}$ model. A resonant pipe initially subjected to a harmonic pressure disturbance described the natural steepening process that leads to a shocked N-wave. For a linearly unstable regime, pressure oscillations reach a limit cycle which is independent of the characteristics of the initial disturbances and depends only on combustion parameters and operating conditions. For the 1.5 MW gas generator under development in KARI, the numerical results show good agreement with experimental data from hot-firing tests.

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Vibration Analysis for the L-1 Stage Bladed-disk of a LP Steam Turbine (증기터빈 저압 L-1단 블레이드-디스크 연성 진동 특성 분석)

  • Lee, Doo-Young;Bae, Yong-Chae;Kim, Hee-Soo;Lee, Yook-Ryun;Kim, Doo-Young
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.29-35
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    • 2010
  • This paper studies causes of the L-1 blade damage of a low pressure turbine, which was found during the scheduled maintenance, in 500 MW fossil power plants. Many failures of turbine blades are caused by the coupling of aerodynamic forcing with bladed-disk vibration characteristics. In this study the coupled vibration characteristics of the L-1 turbine bladed-disk in a fossil power plant is shown for the purpose of identifying the root cause of the damage and confirming equipment integrity. First, analytic and experimental modal analysis for the bladed-disk at zero rpm as well as a single blade were performed and analyzed in order to verify the finite element model, and then steady stresses, natural frequencies and corresponding mode shapes, dynamic stresses were calculated for the bladed-disk under operation. Centrifugal force and steady steam force were considered in calculation of steady and dynamic stress. The proximity of modes to sources of excitation was assessed by means of an interference diagram to examine resonances. In addition, fatigue analysis was done for the dangerous modes of operation by a local strain approach. It is expected that these dynamic characteristics will be used effectively to identify the root causes of blade failures and to perform prompt maintenance.

Characteristics of Unburned Material Derived from Coal-fired Power Plant Burning Low Grade Coal (저급탄 연소 석탄회의 미연물질 특성 분석)

  • Park, Ho-Young;Kim, Young-Ju;Kim, Tae-Hyung;Baek, Se-Hyun;Kim, Kyung-Soo;Jeoung, Kwon-Dal
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.68-74
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    • 2012
  • Sub-bituminous coals have been used increasingly in coal-fired power plants with a proportion of over 50% in the blend with bituminous coals. As a result, the unburned material in fly ash has increased and is causing problems in utilizing the fly ash as an additive for concrete production. In this study, analysis of fly ash obtained from a 500 MWe power plant was carried out and unburned material in the fly ash found to be soot. The coals used in the plant were analyzed with CPD model to investigate the sooting potential depending on the coal type and blending ratio.

Effects of $\gamma$-Irradiation on the Antiallergic Activity of Alginate

  • Song, Eu-Jin;Lee, So-Young;Kim, Koth-Bong-Woo-Ri;Park, Jin-Gyu;Kim, Jae-Hun;Lee, Ju-Woon;Byun, Myung-Woo;Ahn, Dong-Hyun
    • Food Science and Biotechnology
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.1003-1009
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    • 2008
  • This study was performed to determine the effects of $\gamma$-irradiation on the antiallergic activity of alginate. An alginate aqueous solution was $\gamma$-irradiated at 3, 5, 7, 10, 20, and 100 kGy. First, the molecular weight (Mw) of alginate rapidly decreased as the $\gamma$-irradiation dose increased up to 20 kGy. Then, the antiallergic activity of the $\gamma$-irradiated alginate was measured. Interlukin (IL)-4 cytokine and IgE level were significantly decreased in the $\gamma$-irradiated alginate groups as compared to the control group in vitro. The mice intraperitoneally administered with the $\gamma$-irradiated alginate exhibited lower ovalbumin-specific IgE and IgG1 level in serum than the control mice. Furthermore, the $\gamma$-irradiated alginate suppressed total and ovalbumin-specific IgE secretions in the splenocytes. Increased IL-2 level was observed in the culture supernatants of the splenocytes that were obtained from the mice administerd with the $\gamma$-irradiated alginate, while IL-4 level decreased. The present study indicates that $\gamma$-irradiated alginate can suppress allergy in a mouse allergy model.

Software Development for the Performance Evaluation and Blade Design of a HACT by BEMT (블레이드요소 운동량 이론에 의한 수평축 조류발전용 터빈 블레이드 설계 및 성능평가 소프트웨어 개발)

  • Mo, Jang-Oh;Kim, Mann-Eung;Hyun, Beom-Soo;Kim, You-Taek;Oh, Cheol;Lee, Young-Ho
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.96-101
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    • 2011
  • In this study, we have established the design techniques, with which we can design and evaluate performance of blades on a horizontal axis current turbine, by application of blade element momentum theory considering the blade tip's loss model, and finally developed the domestic software(MCT-blade V2.0). We have designed and evaluated performance of blades for the 2MW class by using of the software, and confirmed its calculation results from BEMT by comparing those results from commercial code of ANSYS FLUENT. In a state of rated velocity 2.5m/s, the mechanical power from BEMT is calculated as 2,121kW, which is considered to satisfy the electrical power, but the value from CFD is calculated as 1,901kW, which is considered a little deficient for the target output.

Harmonics Assessment for an Electric Railroad Feeding System using Moments Matching Method (모멘트 정합 방법(Moment Matching Method)을 이용한 전기철도 급전시스템의 고조파 평가)

  • Lee, Jun-Kyong;Lee, Seung-Hyuk;Kim, Jin-O
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2007
  • Generally, an electric railroad feeding system has many problems due to the different characteristics in contrast with a load of general three-phase AC electric power system. One of them is harmonics problem caused by the switching device existing in the feeding system, and moreover, the time-varying dynamic loads of rail way is inherently another cause to increase this harmonics problem. In Korea power systems, the electric railroad feeding system is directly supplied from the substation of KEPCO. Therefore, if voltages fluctuation or unbalanced voltages are created by the voltage and current distortion or voltage drop during operation, it affects directly the source of supply. The trainloads of electric railway system have non-periodic but iterative harmonic characteristics as operating condition, because the electric characteristic of the electric railroad feeding system is changed by physical conditions of the each trainload. According to the traditional study, the estimation of harmonics has been performed by deterministic way using the steady state data at the specific time. This method is easy to analyze harmonics, but it has limits in some cases which needs an assessment of dynamic load and reliability. Therefore, this paper proposes the probabilistic estimation method, moments matching method(MW) in order to overcome the drawback of deterministic method. In this paper, distributions for each harmonics are convolved to obtain the moments and cumulants of TDD(Total Demand Distortion), and this can be generalized for any number of trains. For the case study, the electric railway system of LAT(Intra Airport Transit) in Incheon International Airport is modeled using PSCAD/EMTDC dynamic simulator. The raw data of harmonics for the moments matching method is acquired from simulation of the LAT model.

Nonlinear response history analysis and collapse mode study of a wind turbine tower subjected to tropical cyclonic winds

  • Dai, Kaoshan;Sheng, Chao;Zhao, Zhi;Yi, Zhengxiang;Camara, Alfredo;Bitsuamlak, Girma
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.79-100
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    • 2017
  • The use of wind energy resources is developing rapidly in recent decades. There is an increasing number of wind farms in high wind-velocity areas such as the Pacific Rim regions. Wind turbine towers are vulnerable to tropical cyclones and tower failures have been reported in an increasing number in these regions. Existing post-disaster failure case studies were mostly performed through forensic investigations and there are few numerical studies that address the collapse mode simulation of wind turbine towers under strong wind loads. In this paper, the wind-induced failure analysis of a conventional 65 m hub high 1.5-MW wind turbine was carried out by means of nonlinear response time-history analyses in a detailed finite element model of the structure. The wind loading was generated based on the wind field parameters adapted from the cyclone boundary layer flow. The analysis results indicate that this particular tower fails due to the formation of a full-section plastic hinge at locations that are consistent with those reported from field investigations, which suggests the validity of the proposed numerical analysis in the assessment of the performance of wind-farms under cyclonic winds. Furthermore, the numerical simulation allows to distinguish different failure stages before the dynamic collapse occurs in the proposed wind turbine tower, opening the door to future research on the control of these intermediate collapse phases.

Buccal Delivery of [D-Ala2, D-Leu5]Enkephalin Incorporated in Mucoadhesive Poly(acrylic acid) Hydrogels

  • Lee, Jae-Hwi;Lee, Yoon-Jin;Kang, Kyoung-Hoon;Nam, Dae-Young;Choi, Young-Wook
    • Journal of Pharmaceutical Investigation
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.369-373
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    • 2005
  • The objectives of the current work is to understand the factors impacting the formulation and performance of a Carbopol mucoadhesive buccal delvery system for a model peptide drug, $[D-Ala{^2},\;D-Leu{^5}]$enkephalin (DADLE, Mw=569.7) with comparable chemical and enzymatic stability. Specifically, in vitro buccal DADLE delivery from the cross-linked poly(acrylic acid) (PAA) hydrogel system was characterized. In addition, the influences of several penetration enhancers on the ex vivo buccal absorption of DADLE were also studied. In this study, the PAA hydrogels generally swell to 100% of their original weight in the phosphate pH 7.4 buffer. The water penetration into the PAA hydrogel occurred based on a zero-order kinetics for the first 60 min and steadily decreased afterwards. From the release study, it can be seen that the initial DADLE release was so rapid and the rate of release of DADLE decreased as the time elapsed. The porcine buccal tissue was found to be permeable to DADLE with a flux value of $0.07%/cm{^2}/hr({\pm}0.01\;SD)$. From the ex vivo diffusion study, it was found that sodium taurodihydrofusidate showed a greater degree of enhancement compared to the phospholipids with an Enhancement Ratio (ER) of 8.7 compared to 2.7 and 1.9 for didecanoylphosphatidylcholine and lysophosphatidylcholine, respectively. The work encompassed within this paper has demonstrated the feasibility of using the PAA hydrogel delivery system with its good mucoadhesive properties for the buccal delivery of peptides.