• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.239-246
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• 2008

In this study, an optimized deterministic water-quality model was constructed to estimate water quality of a river and lake in the upstream basin of a dam. A stochastic water-quality analysis using reliability analysis technique was applied to the model. The model was tested in the 13.9 km reach from Maeil stage station of Kyechun to Hoengsung Dam of Sum River. After finding hydraulic characteristics from nonuniform flow analysis, Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) optimization technique for model calibration was applied to determine optimum reaction parameters, and model verification was performed based on these. The stochastic model, using Mean First­Order Second­-Moment (MFOSM) and Monte-Carlo methods, was applied to the same reach as the deterministic study. Variations of discharge and water quality in headwater were considered, as well as variations of hydraulic coefficients and reaction coefficients. The statistical results of output variables from MFOSM were similar to those from the Monte-Carlo method. Risk analysis using MFOSM and Monte-Carlo methods presented the probabilities of some locations in the Hoengsung Lake violating existing water-quality standards in terms of DO and BOD.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.37 no.5
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• pp.62-72
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• 1995

공학분야에 널리 사용되고 있는 신뢰도 분석 방법 중에서 Monte Carlo simulation (MC), Mean-value First-Order Second-Moment Method(MFOSM), and Advanced First-Order Second-Moment(AFOSM) method들을 강물의 오염물질 농도와 수질기준치사이의 신뢰도 분석에 적용하였다. 미 환경 보건국에서 개발 보급한 QUAL2E를 이용하여 Mew Jersey에 위치한 Passaic강의 수질예측에서 4가지 주요인자(용존산소, 생물학적 산소요구량, 암모니아 그리고 조류)들이 정해진 수질기준치를 유지 할 수 있는 확률을 세가지 방법에 의해 추정한 후에 상호 비교하였다. MC방법에 의해 2,000회 simulation시켜서 그 결과가 시스템의 추계학적 성질을 잘 반영한 것으로 판단하여 비교기준으로 삼고 MFOSM과 AFOSM에 의해 추정한 결과와 비교하였다. MFOSM의 결과보다는 AFOSM의 결과가 전체적으로 MC의 결과에 더 근접하였으며, 이유는 AFOSM의 계산방법이 MFOSM의 선형근사로 인한 오차를 줄일 수 있었기 때문인 것으로 판단된다. MC방법의 결과와 다른 방법들의 결과사이의 차이가 입력 변수들이 평균값에서 멀어질 때가 많았는데 이는 MC의 경우 입력 변수들이 일정범위를 벗어나서 비현실적인 상황이면 model이 정지하는데, 다른 방법들은 simulation에 의한 것이 아니고 수학적인 계산에 의해서 신뢰도가 추정되기 때문에 이러한 상황이 반영될 수 없기 때문이다. 강물의 수질을 취급하는 공학적인 측면에서 보면, 이중에 가장 간편한 MFOSM이 많은 simulation이 필요한 MC나 계산방법이 상대적으로 복잡한 AFOSM에 비해 오차가 크지 않아서 이들을 대시하여 사용될 수 있다고 판단된다. 유래의 PAF가 분비된다는 것을 알 수 있었으며, 이러한 인자는 동결처리에서도 그 기능은 전혀 변하지 않는다고 본다. 이후에 있어서 mouse LIF의 첨가는 돼지의 수정란을 배반포 이후의 단계에까지 발달시킬 수 있었다. 있어서 더 적합한 것으로 판단되었다. 5. 개발된 모형은 논 관개의 물리적 측면과 관리목표 모두를 고려한 것으로 계산된 효율은 벼, 생육 각 단계에서의 효율 비교에 양호한 방법임을 알 수 있다.은 Sharpsburg 점질양토에 대한 S.C.S 한계허용치 10ton/ha/year 이내로 나타났다. 비처리구에서의 토양유실량은 평균 2.56ton/ha/year로 높게 나타난 반면 3개의 서로 다른 추리구인 비수구, 초생수로구 및 Bromegrass구에서는 각각 0.152, 0.192 및 0.290ton/ha/year로 낮은 결과를 가져왔다. 6. 평균 침전량에 대한 L.S.D. 검정 걸과 전시험구중 비처리구가 고도의 유의차를 나타낸 반면 비수구, 초생수로구 및 Bromegrass 목초구 간에는 아무런 유의차가 인정되지 않았다. 7. 농지보전 처리구인 배수구와 초생수로구는 비처리구에 비해 낮은 침두 유출량과 낮은 토양유실량을 나타내었다.구보다 14% 절감되는 것으로 나타났다.작용하는 것으로 사료된다.된다.정량 분석한 결과이다. 시편의 조성은 33.6 at% U, 66.4 at% O의 결과를 얻었다. 산화물 핵연료의 표면 관찰 및 정량 분석 시험시 시편 표면을 전도성 물질로 증착시키지 않고, Silver Paint 에 시편을 접착하는 방법으로도 만족한 시험 결과를 얻을 수 있었다.째, 회복기 중에 일어나는 입자들의 유입은 자기폭풍의 지속시간을 연장시키는 경향을 보이며 큰 자기폭풍일수록 현저했다. 주상에서 관측된 이러한 특성은 서브스톰 확장기 활동이 자기폭풍의 발달과 밀접한 관계가

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.8
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• pp.591-605
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• 2009

In this study the risk integrated erosion and seepage failure factor and combined risk of the levee embankment were assessed. For the research of the reliability, the risk assessment of erosion, seepage and both of them combined for the levee embankment were conducted using discharge curve and stage hydrograph generated by stochastic rainfall variation method during typhoon and monsoon season. The risk of erosion was evaluated using tractive force and the seepage analysis was performed by selecting representative cross sections for SEEP/W model analysis. And the probability of seepage failure was assessed with MFOSM analysis using critical hydraulic gradient method. Unlike deterministic analysis method, quantitative risk could be obtained and the characteristics of realistic rainfall variation patterns as well as a variety of factors contributing to levee failure could be reflected in this research. The results of this study show significantly enhanced applicability for the combined risk. As this model can be employed to determine dangerous spots for levee failure and to establish flood insurance linked with flood risk map, it will dramatically contribute to the establishment of both efficient and systematic measures for integrated flood management on a watershed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.463-474
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• 2002

A two-dimensional water quality management model, Unsteady/Uncertainty Water Quality Model(UUWQM), is developed for a hydrodynamic analysis, an advection-diffusion analysis, and a reliability analysis by using uncertainty technique. The model is applied to the 35 km reach of Sungju to Hyunpoong in the midstream of Nakdong River. 2-D hydrodynamic and water quality analyses are peformed in this reach. Important input variables are decided by sensitivity analysis and verified by Monte Carlo method. Frequency distributions of water quality concentrations are computed from MFOSM method and Monte Carlo method at several locations in this study area. A water quality management system is constructed by calculating the violation probabilities of existing water quality standards.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1991.10a
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• pp.102-107
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• 1991

This study a reliability based design criteria for the Pile foundation, Which is common type of bridge founfation, and also proposes the theoretical bases limit state equations of stalbility analvsis of Pile foundation and the uncertainty measuring algorithms of each equation are also derived by MFOSM using the pile reations of displacement method, Terzaghi's bearing capacity formula, and chang's lateral load formula. The Level of uncertainties comesponding to these algorithms are proposed approprite values considering our actuality. It may be asserted that the proposed LRFD reliability based design criteria for the pile foundation may have to be incorporated in to the current Highway Bridge Design codes as a design provision corresponding to the USD(or LFD) provisions of the current Highway Bridge Design Code.

• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.77-89
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• 1993

Current Bridge foundation design is based on Working Stress Design(WSD), but Load Factor Based on Optimum Reliability(LFBOR) design method is more rational than the WSD. For this reason, this study proposes a reliability based design criteria for the bridge foundation, which is most common type of bridge foundation(Shallow, Pile and Caission), and also proposes the theoretical basis of nominal safety factors of stability analysis by introducing the reliability theory. The limit state equations of stability analysis of bridge foundation and the uncertainty measuring algorithms of each equation are also derived by Cornell's MFOSM(Mean First Order 2nd Moment Methods)using the stability analysis fourmula Highway Bridge Design Codes.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.71-86
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• 1983

Current R.C. retaining wall design is bared on WSD, but the reliability based design method is more rational than the WSD. For this reason, this study proposes a reliability based design criteria for the cantilever retaining wall, which is most common type of retaining wall, and also proposes the theoretical bases of nominal safety factors of stability analysis by introducing the reliability theory. The limit state equations of stability analysis and design of each part of cantilever retaining wall are derived and the uncertainty measuring algorithms of each equation are also derived by MFOSM using Coulomb's coefficient of the active earth pressure and Hansen's bearing capacity formula. The levels of uncertainties corresponding to these algorithms are proposed appropriate values considering our actuality. The target reliability indices (overturning: ${\beta}_0$=4.0, sliding: ${\beta}_0$=3.5, bearing capacity: [${\beta}_0$=3.0, design for flexure: [${\beta}_0$=3.0, design for shear: ${\beta}_0$=3.2) are selected as optimal values considering our practice based on the calibration with the current R.C. retaining wall design safety provisions. Load and resistance factors are measured by using the proposed uncertainties and the selected target reliability indices. Furthermore, a set of nominal safety factors, allowable stresses, and allowable shear stresses are proposed for the current WSD design provisions. It may be asserted that the proposed LRFD reliability based design criteria for the R.C. retaining wall may have to be incorporated into the current R.C. design codes as a design provision corresponding to the USD provisions of the current R.C. design code.