• Title/Summary/Keyword: Lognormal Distribution

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A Probabilistic Assessment of Human Health Risk from Arsenic-Contaminated Rice Grown Near The Mining Areas of Korea

  • Paik, Min-Kyoung;Kim, Won-Il;Yoo, Ji-Hyock;Kim, Jin-Kyoung;Im, Geon-Jae;Hong, Moo-Ki
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.143-147
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    • 2010
  • Chronic exposure to Arsenic (As) causes significant human health effects including various cancers. Total As concentrations from 300 polished rice samples cultivated near the mining areas in Korea were analyzed to estimate a probabilistic assessment of human health risk from As-contaminated rice. The mean of total As concentrations in rice was 0.09 mg/kg and lognormal distribution model was set for total As concentrations. Human health risk for As in rice was estimated using gender-specific rice consumption data and average daily dose (ADD). While cancer risk (CR) and hazard quotient (HQ) were calculated using oral cancer slope factor (OCSF) and Reference dose (RfD) suggested by the U.S. EPA. Mean of CR posed by total As was 2.16 (for male) and 1.83 (for female) per 10,000. The HQ for general population from rice cultivated near the mining areas in Korea was below 1 as the $50^{th}$ percentile of general population. However, less than 10% of general population consuming rice cultivated near the mining areas would exceed 1.0. This result is similar with those from each gender-specific group.

Evaluation of Capacity Spectrum Methods for Seismic Fragility Analysis of Bridges (교량의 지진 취약도 해석 시 사용되는 성능 스펙트럼 기법의 평가)

  • Kim, Sang-Hoon;Yi, Jin-Hak;Kim, Ho-Kyung
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.67-76
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    • 2004
  • This study presents the evaluation of CSM(Capacity Spectrum Method, ATC-40) in developing fragility curves for a sample concrete bridge. The CSM is originally developed as one of the simplified procedures for building structures, while this study adopts the CSM to develop fragility curves of bridge structures. Four(4) different approaches are demonstrated and the fragility curves developed are compared those by the nonlinear time history analysis. Fragility curves in this study are represented by lognormal distribution functions with two parameters and developed as a function of PGA. The sixty(60) ground acceleration time histories for the Los Angeles area developed for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) SAC(SEAOC-ATC-CUREe) steel project are used for the bridge analysis. The comparison of fragility curves by the CSM with those by the time history analysis indicates that the agreement is excellent for one of the methods investigated in this study. In this respect. it is recommended that the demand spectrum might be improved according to the guidelines suggested in this study. However, this observation might not always apply, depending on the details of specific bridge characteristic

Reliability Analysis of Gas Turbine Engine Blades (가스터빈 블레이드의 신뢰성 해석)

  • Lee, Kwang-Ju;Rhim, Sung-Han;Hwang, Jong-Wook;Jung, Yong-Wun;Yang, Gyae-Byung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.36 no.12
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    • pp.1186-1192
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    • 2008
  • The reliability of gas turbine engine blades was studied. Yield strength, Young’s modulus, engine speed and gas temperature were considered as statistically independent random variables. The failure probability was calculated using five different methods. Advanced Mean Value Method was the most efficient without significant loss in accuracy. When random variables were assumed to have normal, lognormal and Weibull distributions with the same means and standard deviations, the CDF of limit state equation did not change significantly with the distribution functions of random variables. The normalized sensitivity of failure probability with respect to standard deviations of random variables was the largest with gas temperature. The effect of means and standard deviations of random variables was studied. The increase in the mean of gas temperature and the standard deviation of engine speed increased the failure probability the most significantly.

Statistical frequency analysis of snow depth using mixed distributions (혼합분포함수를 적용한 최심신적설량에 대한 수문통계학적 빈도분석)

  • Park, Kyung Woon;Kim, Dongwook;Shin, Ji Yae;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.12
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    • pp.1001-1009
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    • 2019
  • Due to recent increasing heavy snow in Korea, the damage caused by heavy snow is also increasing. In Korea, there are many efforts including establishing disaster prevention measures to reduce the damage throughout the country, but it is difficult to establish the design criteria due to the characteristics of heavy snow. In this study, snowfall frequency analysis was performed to estimate design snow depths using observed snow depth data at Jinju, Changwon and Hapcheon stations. The conventional frequency analysis is sometime limted to apply to the snow depth data containing zero values which produce unrealistc estimates of distributon parameters. To overcome this problem, this study employed mixed distributions based on Lognormal, Generalized Pareto (GP), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Gamma, Gumbel and Weibull distribution. The results show that the mixed distributions produced smaller design snow depths than single distributions, which indicated that the mixed distributions are applicable and practical to estimate design snow depths.

Study of Dominance-Diversity on Quercus mongolica Forests in Kangwon-do (강원도 신갈나무 군락의 우점도 다양성에 관한 연구)

  • 장규관;송호경
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.160-165
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    • 1997
  • The objective of this study was to analyze dominance-diversity of Quercus mongolica community which characterize the boreal-temperate deciduous forest in Korea. Employing the releve method of Muller-Domboes and Ellenberg, 100 quadrats were sampled in the natural forest of Mt. Odae, Mt. Chumbong and Mt. Jungwang in Kangwon-do, where Quercus mongolica community is in the situation of climax or subclimax. On the basis of Braun-Blanquet method, field survey, which accounts ffor the characters of the species structure of Quercus mongolica community, was carried out between 1991 and 1994. Quercus mongolica community was relatively in a stable condition because of the even distribution of its various indices: the species diversity index was 0.4~1.2; the species richness index was 2~11; the evenness index was 0.6~0.9. The dominance-diversity curve were comparatively of lognormal distrivution with a gentle slope in all communities. The species sewuence curve for Quercus mongolica - Lindera obtusiloba community had relatively a steep slope, which meant that the evenness of the community would be low. The species sequence curve for Quercus mongolica - Carpinus cordata community had a slow slope, which meant that the evenness and the stability of the community would be high.

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Leaf Feeding Insects of Welsh Onion and Shallot, and Their Species Abundance Patterns (대파 및 쪽파 잎기생 해충상과 종 빈도 분포형)

  • 고현관;최재승;엄기백;최귀문;김정화
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.360-365
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    • 1992
  • Leaf feeding insect species of welsh onion and shallot were surveyed, and their species abundances were analyzed by fitness test for lognomal disstribution. A total of 13 and 6 species were identified on welsh onion and shallot, respectively. The dominant species on welsh onion were Thrips tabacid, Acrolepiopsis sapporensis, Spodoptera exigua, and Liriomyza chinensis. Thrips tabacid was also identified as the major species on the shallot. The community dominance was high in welsh onion and shallot observed on 12 October, Suwon. The species abundance patterns of the two communities were well described by lognormal distribution(P> 0.50).

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Development of Fragility Curves for Seismic Stability Evaluation of Cut-slopes (지진에 대한 안전성 평가를 위한 깎기비탈면의 취약도 곡선 작성)

  • Park, Noh-Seok;Cho, Sung-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.33 no.7
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2017
  • There are uncertainties about the seismic load caused by seismic waves, which cannot be predicted due to the characteristics of the earthquake occurrence. Therefore, it is necessary to consider these uncertainties by probabilistic analysis. In this paper, procedures to develop a fragility curve that is a representative method to evaluate the safety of a structure by stochastic analysis were proposed for cut slopes. Fragility curve that considers uncertainties of soil shear strength parameters was prepared by Monte Carlo Simulation using pseudo static analysis. The fragility curve considering the uncertainty of the input ground motion was developed by performing time-history seismic analysis using selected 30 real ground input motions and the Newmark type displacement evaluation analysis. Fragility curves are represented as the cumulative probability distribution function with lognormal distribution by using the maximum likelihood estimation method.

Estimation of Mean Life and Reliability of Highway Pavement Based on Reliability Theory (신뢰성 개념을 이용한 포장의 평균수명 및 신뢰도 예측)

  • Do, Myung-Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5D
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    • pp.497-504
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, the author presents a reliability estimation technique to analyze the effects of traffic loads on pavement mean life based on the national highway database of Suwon and Uijeongbu region from 1999 to 2008. The estimation of the mean life, its standard deviation and reliability for pavement sections are calculated by using an appropriate distribution, Lognormal distribution, based on reliability theory. Furthermore, the probability paper method and Maximum likelihood estimation are both used to estimate parameters. The author found that mean life of newly constructed sections and over-layed sections is about 6.5 to 7.9 years and 7.3 to 9.1 years, respectively. The author also ascertained that the results of cumulative failure probability for pavement life between the proposed methods and observed data are similar. Such an assessment methodology and measures based on reliability theory can provide useful information for maintenance plans in pavement management systems as long as additional life data on pavement sections are accumulated.

Median Control Chart for Nonnormally Distributed Processes (비정규분포공정에서 매디안특수관리도의 모형설계와 적용연구)

  • 신용백
    • Journal of the Korean Professional Engineers Association
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 1987
  • Statistical control charts are useful tools to monitor and control the manufacturing processes and are widely used in most Korean industries. Many Korean companies, however, do not always obtain desired results from the traditional control charts by Shewhart such as the X-chart, X-chart, X-chart, etc. This is partly because the quality charterstics of the process are not distributed normally but are skewed due to the intermittent production, small lot size, etc. In Shewhart X-chart, which is the most widely used one in Korea, such skewed distributions make the plots to be inclined below or above the central line or outside the control limits although no assignable causes can be found. To overcome such shortcomings in nonnormally distributed processes, a distribution-free type of confidence interval can be used, which should be based on order statistics. This thesis is concerned with the design of control chart based on a sample median which is easy to use in practical situation and therefore properties for nonnormal distributions may be easily analyzed. Control limits and central lines are given for tile more famous nonnormal distributions, such as Gamma, Beta, Lognormal, Weibull, Pareto, Truncated-normal distributions. Robustness of the proposed median control chart is compared with that of the X-chart, the former tends to be superior to the latter as the probability distribution of the process becomes more skewed. The average run length to detect the assignable cause is also compared when the process has a Normal or a Gamma distribution for which the properties of X are easy to verify, the proposed chart is slightly worse than the X-chart for the normally distributed product but much better for Gamma-distributed products. Average Run Lengths of the other distributions are also computed. To use the proposed control chart, the probability distribution of the process should be known or estimated. If it is not possible, the results of comparison of the robustness force us to use the proposed median control chart based on a normal distribution. To estimate the distribution of the process, Sturge's formula is used to graph the histogram and the method of probability plotting, $X^2$-goodness of fit test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, are discussed with real case examples. A comparison of the propose4 median chart and the X chart was also performed with these examples and the median chart turned out to be superior to the X-chart.

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Median Control Chart for Nonnormally Distributed Processes (비정규분포공정에서 메디안특수관리도 통용모형설정에 관한 실증적 연구(요약))

  • 신용백
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.10 no.16
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    • pp.101-106
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    • 1987
  • Statistical control charts are useful tools to monitor and control the manufacturing processes and are widely used in most Korean industries. Many Korean companies, however, do not always obtain desired results from the traditional control charts by Shewhart such as the $\bar{X}$-chart, $\bar{X}$-chart, $\bar{X}$-chart, etc. This is partly because the quality charterstics of the process are not distributed normally but are skewed due to the intermittent production, small lot size, etc. In Shewhart $\bar{X}$-chart. which is the most widely used one in Kora, such skewed distributions make the plots to be inclined below or above the central line or outside the control limits although no assignable causes can be found. To overcome such shortcomings in nonnormally distributed processes, a distribution-free type of confidence interval can be used, which should be based on order statistics. This thesis is concerned with the design of control chart based on a sample median which is easy to use in practical situation and therefore properties for nonnormal distributions may be easily analyzed. Control limits and central lines are given for the more famous nonnormal distributions, such as Gamma, Beta, Lognormal, Weibull, Pareto, Truncated-normal distributions. Robustness of the proposed median control chart is compared with that of the $\bar{X}$-chart; the former tends to be superior to the latter as the probability distribution of the process becomes more skewed. The average run length to detect the assignable cause is also compared when the process has a Normal or a Gamma distribution for which the properties of X are easy to verify, the proposed chart is slightly worse than the $\bar{X}$-chart for the normally distributed product but much better for Gamma-distributed products. Average Run Lengths of the other distributions are also computed. To use the proposed control chart, the probability distribution of the process should be known or estimated. If it is not possible, the results of comparison of the robustness force us to use the proposed median control chart based oh a normal distribution. To estimate the distribution of the process, Sturge's formula is used to graph the histogram and the method of probability plotting, $\chi$$^2$-goodness of fit test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, are discussed with real case examples. A comparison of the proposed median chart and the $\bar{X}$ chart was also performed with these examples and the median chart turned out to be superior to the $\bar{X}$-chart.

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