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http://dx.doi.org/10.7843/kgs.2017.33.7.29

Development of Fragility Curves for Seismic Stability Evaluation of Cut-slopes  

Park, Noh-Seok (Geotechnical Department, Saman Corporation)
Cho, Sung-Eun (Dept. of Civil, Safety, and Environmental Engrg. & Construction Engrg. Research Institute, Hankyong National Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society / v.33, no.7, 2017 , pp. 29-41 More about this Journal
Abstract
There are uncertainties about the seismic load caused by seismic waves, which cannot be predicted due to the characteristics of the earthquake occurrence. Therefore, it is necessary to consider these uncertainties by probabilistic analysis. In this paper, procedures to develop a fragility curve that is a representative method to evaluate the safety of a structure by stochastic analysis were proposed for cut slopes. Fragility curve that considers uncertainties of soil shear strength parameters was prepared by Monte Carlo Simulation using pseudo static analysis. The fragility curve considering the uncertainty of the input ground motion was developed by performing time-history seismic analysis using selected 30 real ground input motions and the Newmark type displacement evaluation analysis. Fragility curves are represented as the cumulative probability distribution function with lognormal distribution by using the maximum likelihood estimation method.
Keywords
Probabilistic analysis; Fragility curve; Monte Carlo Simulation; Maximum Likelihood Estimation; Newmark-type Displacement Analysis; Pseudo static Analysis;
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