Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Statistical frequency analysis of snow depth using mixed distributions

혼합분포함수를 적용한 최심신적설량에 대한 수문통계학적 빈도분석

  • Park, Kyung Woon (Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Kim, Dongwook (Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Shin, Ji Yae (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Woong (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University)
  • 박경운 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 김동욱 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 신지예 (한양대학교(ERICA) 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교(ERICA) 건설환경공학과)
  • Received : 2019.10.02
  • Accepted : 2019.11.21
  • Published : 2019.12.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Due to recent increasing heavy snow in Korea, the damage caused by heavy snow is also increasing. In Korea, there are many efforts including establishing disaster prevention measures to reduce the damage throughout the country, but it is difficult to establish the design criteria due to the characteristics of heavy snow. In this study, snowfall frequency analysis was performed to estimate design snow depths using observed snow depth data at Jinju, Changwon and Hapcheon stations. The conventional frequency analysis is sometime limted to apply to the snow depth data containing zero values which produce unrealistc estimates of distributon parameters. To overcome this problem, this study employed mixed distributions based on Lognormal, Generalized Pareto (GP), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Gamma, Gumbel and Weibull distribution. The results show that the mixed distributions produced smaller design snow depths than single distributions, which indicated that the mixed distributions are applicable and practical to estimate design snow depths.

최근 우리나라에서 폭설이 증가하고 있으며, 이로 인한 피해액 또한 증가하고 있다. 우리나라는 전국적으로 폭설로 인한 피해를 줄이기 위해 내설 설계기준 마련 등의 노력을 하고 있으나, 강설 자료의 특성으로 기준 설정에 어려움이 있다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 남부 지역에 있는 진주, 창원, 합천 지점의 적설량에 대한 수문통계학적 빈도분석을 수행하여 최심신적설량에 대한 설계수문량을 정량적으로 산정하였다. 자료의 특성상 연도별 측정값이 '0'인 경우가 존재하여 기존의 빈도분석 방법을 적용할 경우 매개변수의 추정이 불가능한 상황도 발생한다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위하여 혼합분포함수를 이용하였고, 분포모형으로는 대수정규, 일반화 파레토, 일반화 극치, 감마, 검벨, 와이블 분포를 적용하였다. 적용 결과, 단일분포함수를 적용할 때 보다 혼합분포함수를 적용할 때 확률적설심이 더 작게 산정되었으며, 전체적으로 관측값이 간헐적으로 나타나는 지점에서 혼합분포함수의 적용성이 우수한 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

References

  1. Choi, H.G., Uranchimeg, S., Kim, Y.T., and Kwon, H.H. (2018). "A bayesian approach to gumbel mixture distribution for the estimation of parameter and its use to the rainfall frequency analysis." Journal of The Korean Society of Civil Engineers, KSCE, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 249-259 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2018.38.2.0249
  2. Chow, V.T., Maidment, D.R., and Mays, L.W. (1988). Applied hydrology. McGraw-Hill, USA.
  3. Chung, G.H. (2017). "Design criteria for reducing snowfall damages." The Magazine of The Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, KOSHAM, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 35-43 (in Korean).
  4. De Paola, F., Giugni, M., Pugliese, F., Annis, A., and Nardi, F. (2018). "GEV parameter estimation and stationary vs. non-stationary analysis of extreme rainfall in african test cities." Hydrology, USGS, Vol. 5, No. 28, pp. 1-23.
  5. Haan, C.T. (2002). Statistical methods in hydrology. Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa, USA.
  6. Han, W.S. (2014). The increase of heavy snow vulnerable area due to climate change and its countermeasures. Korea Research Institute For Human Settlements, No. 450, pp. 1-6 (in Korean).
  7. Jennings, M.E., and Benson, M.A. (1969). "Frequency curves for annual flood series with some zero events or incomplete data." Water Resources Research, AGU, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 276-280. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR005i001p00276
  8. Kedem, B., Chiu, L.S., and Karni, Z. (1990). "An analysis of the threshold method for measuring area-average rainfall." Journal of Applied Meteorology, AME, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 3-20. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1990)029<0003:AAOTTM>2.0.CO;2
  9. Kim, K.J., and Yoo, C.S. (2007). "On the variations of spatial correlation structure of rainfall." Journal of Korea Water Resource Association, KWRA, Vol. 40, No. 12, pp. 943-956 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2007.40.12.943
  10. Kim, Y.S., Park, M.J., Kim, S.J., Moon, K.H., and Kim, H.S. (2010). "Estimation of frequency based snowfall depth and maximum snowfall depth in 2010, Korea." Journal of Korea Water Resource Association, KWRA, pp. 1476-1480 (in Korean).
  11. Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (2012). Fundamentals of disaster management. Goomibook (in Korean).
  12. Kwon, S.H., Park, H.S., and Chung, G.H. (2016). "Analysis of snow vulnerability and adaptation policy for heavy snow." The Magazine of The Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, KOSHAM, Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 363-368 (in Korean).
  13. Lee, J.J., Jung, Y.H., and Lee, S.W. (2007). "A study on the evaluation of probable snowfall depth in Korea." The Magazine of The Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, KOSHAM, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 53-63 (in Korean).
  14. Ministry of Public Safety and Security, Republic of Korea (2015). Development of the advanced analytical techniques for the effect of natural disaster considering regional characteristics (in Korean).
  15. Ministry of the Interior and Safety (MOIS) (2018). 2017 statistical yearbook of natural disaster (in Korean).
  16. Park, H.S., and Chung, G.H. (2019). "Frequency analysis for annual maximum of daily snow accumulations using conditional joint probability distribution." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 52, No. 9, pp. 627-635 (in Korean).
  17. Shin, J.Y., Ahn, H.J., Jeong, C.S., and Ahn, J.H. (2018). "Frequency analysis of annual maximum wind speed in Korea using mixture distribution." The Magazine of The Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, KOSHAM, Vol. 18, No. 7, pp. 61-69 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2018.18.7.61
  18. Shin, J.Y., and Lee, T.S. (2014). "Parameter estimation of the mixture normal distribution for hydro-meteorological variables using meta-heuristic maximum likelihood." The Magazine of The Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, KOSHAM, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 93-100 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2014.14.4.93
  19. Shin, J.Y., Kim, T.W., Kim, S.C., and Yoon, S.B. (2013). "Statistical frequency analysis of earthquake data at East Sea using mixed distribution functions." The Magazine of The Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, KOSHAM, Vol. 13, No. 5, pp. 347-354 (in Korean).
  20. Strupczewski, W.G., Weglarczyk, S., and Singh, V.P. (2003). "Impulse response of the kinematic diffusion model as a probability distribution of hydrologic samples with zero values." Journal of Hydrology, Elsevier, Vol. 27, No. 3-4, pp. 328-351. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00309-8
  21. Wang, S.X., and Singh, V.P. (1995). "Frequency estimation for hydrological samples with zero values." Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, ASCE, Vol. 121, No. 1, pp. 98-108. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1995)121:1(98)
  22. Wei, T., and Song, S. (2019). "Probability weighted moments-based parameter estimation for kinematic diffusion and muskingum-based distributions." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 24, No. 12, pp. 04019054. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001863
  23. Woo, M.K., and Wu, K. (1989). "Fitting annual floods with zero-flows." Canadian Water Resources Journal, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 10-16. https://doi.org/10.4296/cwrj1402010
  24. Yoo, C.S., and Kim, K.J. (2004). "Estimation of areal reduction factor using a mixed distribution." Journal of Korea Water Resource Association, KWRA, Vol. 37, No. 9, pp. 759-769 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2004.37.9.759
  25. Yoo, C.S., Jung, K.S., and Kim, T.W. (2005). "Rainfall frequency analysis using a mixed gamma distribution: evaluation of the global warming effect on daily rainfall." Hydrological Processes, Wiley, Vol. 19, No. 19, pp. 3851-3861. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5985
  26. Yu, I.S., Kim, D.H., and Jeong, S.M. (2016). "Assessment of design snow depth for green house using frequency analysis." The Magazine of The Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, KOSHAM, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 247-254 (in Korean).