• Title/Summary/Keyword: Logit estimation

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Disaggregate Demand Forecasting and Estimation of the Optimal Price for UTIS Service (무선교통정보수집제공시스템(UTIS) 서비스의 이용 수요 예측 및 이용료 적정 수준 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Seok-Yong;Jung, Hun-Young;Ko, Sang-Seon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.101-115
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    • 2008
  • This study reports UTIS(Urban Traffic Information System), which has been generalized in developed countries through brisk research and development and is being promoted for introduction by National Police Agency and Road Traffic Authority to reduce the astronomical amount of social expenses including traffic congestion expenses. Also this study investigates the proper charges for using by the preestimate of demand and contentment according to methods of payment after the service is introduced. The results of this study are as follows. First, demand forecast model is constructed by Binary Logit Model. Second, forecast models of using aspects of UTIS service according to methods of payment are established by Ordered Probit Model. Third, the proper charges for using of UTIS service according to methods of payment are presented to the supplier in the aspects of users. For this, preferences by using aspects and methods of payment are captured. And unit elasticity of coefficient of utilization is understood through responsiveness analysis according to methods of payment.

A Study on the Characteristics of Urban Truck Movement for the Truck based Urban Freight Demand Model (화물자동차기반 대도시 화물수요모형 구축을 위한 화물자동차 통행특성 분석)

  • Hahn, Jin-Seok;Park, Min-Choul;Sung, Hong-Mo;Kim, Hyung-Bum
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.107-118
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of the study is to analyze the travel characteristics of freight trucks in metropolitan areas, focusing on activity generation, destination choice, and trip chaining behaviors. The results showed that the number of service companies at departure areas has a primary influence on the activity generation pattern and destination choice behavior of trucks in metropolitan areas. The number of trips within a trip chain is largest, in case where the prevailing industry in destination areas is wholesale or retail and the shipment item is food or beverage. These results imply that for the reasonable estimation of truck travel demand both the trip chaining behaviors and the industrial compositions in departure and destination areas should be separately considered for each type of commodity.

A Review on Dynamic Changes of Consumer's Attributes and Marketing Mix Strategies of Cut Roses in Korea (장미에 대한 선호속성의 동태적 변화와 마케팅 믹스전략 탐색)

  • Kim, Bae-Sung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.10
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    • pp.4328-4336
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    • 2011
  • The aim of this study is to find changes of the attributes that influence the purchase of cut roses during recent five years(2007~2011) and suggest some implications on ways to promote cut roses marketing. For this purpose, a survey was conducted through the Internet among 1,100 randomly chosen people living in Seoul, Inchon and Gyeonggi Province in 2011. A total of 1,023 valid replies were received for the analysis of the survey which was carried out by the subsidiary consulting firm. The survey panels and estimation models to analyze changes of consumers' preference attributes during recent five years are same to them of Kim, et al.(2007). That is, empirical analysis tools such as ordered probit model, multinomial logit model, and conjoint analysis were used according to Kim, et al.(2007). This paper suggests several policy implications to set up the target market of cut roses and marketing mix strategy to specify the best 4P(product, price, place and promotion).

A Study on Greenhouse Farmers' Willingness to Pay of Agricultural Water Supply through Pipeline (관수로 농업용수 공급에 대한 시설재배 농가의 비용 지불의사 연구)

  • Lim, Cheong-Ryong;Park, Seong-gyeong;Chung, Won-ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.109-114
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we estimate the greenhouse farmers' willingness to pay of agricultural water supply through pipeline. First, in the questionnaire design, orthogonal design and block design were used to enhance the ease of survey. Second, the theoretical model was constructed through the setting of the probability utility function, and the parameters were estimated by using the conditional logit model. Third, all of the estimation coefficients were statistically significant at the 1% significance level. The results of analysis are summarized as follows. First, the probability of selection is increased when maintenance is carried out by Korea Rural Community Corporation or local government. Second, the probability of selection is increased when agricultural water supply through pipeline is higher than the current level. Third, if the Korea Rural Community Corporation carries out maintenance management, the marginal willingness to pay is 44 won per ton. And if the local government carries out maintenance management, the marginal willingness to pay is 25 won per ton. Fourth, according to the quality level of agricultural water supply, the marginal willingness to pay is 101 won, 114 won and 120 won per ton, respectively. This study can be used as a basic data on the cost setting for agricultural water supply through pipeline.

Market Segmented Analysis of Electric Vehicle Purchasing Behavior in Seoul (서울시 전기차 구매행태에 대한 시장분할 분석)

  • HAHN, Jin-Seok;LEE, Jang-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.129-140
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we analyzed the electric vehicle (EV) purchasing behavior with market segmentation in Seoul using the binary logit model. For the model estimation, the experimental design of SP survey generated 24 scenarios with purchase price, charging station availability, and driving range of EVs. The results of market segmentation analysis indicated that the owners of subcompact and compact size cars were primarily affected by the purchasing price while those of mid and full size cars were more sensitive to the charging station availability. By housing type, the charging station availability was the most important factor for the residents of apartment while the purchase price was the most important factor to choose the EVs. These results presented that the EV supply strategy of the automobile manufacturer should be diversified according to the marketing target and the expansion of the public charging infrastructure should be the top priority in the government policy.

Estimating Values of Statistical Lives using Choice Experiment Method (선택실험법을 이용한 확률적 인간생명가치의 추정)

  • Shin, Young Chul
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.683-699
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    • 2007
  • This study applied the choice experiment (CE) method to measure values of statistical lives from multi-attributed mortality risk reduction choices. The four characteristics of mortality risk (i.e. cause of death, voluntariness of mortality risk, timing of death, magnitude of mortality risk reduction) are utilized to design the alternatives of choice sets. The estimation results for the multinomial logit model show that individuals are willing to pay 27,930 won per year for a change from the status quo to a $\frac{1}{100}$ mortality risk reduction for 10 years, 116,773 won per year for mortality risk reduction associated with adults, 97,682 won per year for voluntary mortality risk reduction, 77,234 won per year for involuntary mortality risk reduction. There were several estimates of VSL related to different attributes of mortality risk. The mean VSLs of infant/child/young adult ranged from 1,165 million won to 1,367 million won. The mean VSLs ranged from 1,631 million won to 1,833 million won for adult, and were between 1,128 million won and 1,330 million won for old person.

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Parameter estimation of linear function using VUS and HUM maximization (VUS와 HUM 최적화를 이용한 선형함수의 모수추정)

  • Hong, Chong Sun;Won, Chi Hwan;Jeong, Dong Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.1305-1315
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    • 2015
  • Consider the risk score which is a function of a linear score for the classification models. The AUC optimization method can be applied to estimate the coefficients of linear score. These estimates obtained by this AUC approach method are shown to be better than the maximum likelihood estimators using logistic models under the general situation which does not fit the logistic assumptions. In this work, the VUS and HUM approach methods are suggested by extending AUC approach method for more realistic discrimination and prediction worlds. Some simulation results are obtained with both various distributions of thresholds and three kinds of link functions such as logit, complementary log-log and modified logit functions. It is found that coefficient prediction results by using the VUS and HUM approach methods for multiple categorical classification are equivalent to or better than those by using logistic models with some link functions.

Logistics Peculiarities for the Firms in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk Area (대구.경북지역 기업의 물류특성 분석)

  • Ha, Yeong-Seok;Seo, Jung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.241-260
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    • 2011
  • This paper qualitatively describes logistics behaviors of 113 companies located in Daegu-Gyeongbuk by considering various characteristics such as business location, trade volume, cargo types and the possession of company's own warehouse. A logit model is developed to investigate how predictor variables affect these companies' inclination of utilizing Third Party Logistics Provider(3PL). The estimation results of 102 effective data points show that among the four predictors the location of company's HQs (HQADD) and trade volume (TRDTEU) significantly increase company's tendency towards utilizing 3PL while the remaining two variables (BULK, WAREHS) imparting statistically insignificant influence. The results indicate that those companies located outside the region tend to implement a strategy of using more 3PL and also that the larger the trade volume of the company the more 3PL the company uses to improve the efficiency in logistics.

An Analysis on Joint Choice of Tenure and Dwelling Type in Cheonan (천안시 주민들의 주택보유형태 및 주택점유형태 결합선택 분석)

  • Park, Sung-Hwie;Han, Jong-Ho;Lee, Sung-Ryul
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.1637-1645
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    • 2011
  • This study explores the plausible socio-economic variables that influence joint choice of tenure and dwelling type in Cheonan. For estimating these joint choice models, multinomial logit framework is employed. Following the practice of other studies, we chose the age of householder, education level of householder, occupation of householder, residence duration in Cheonan, experience of capital area residence, plan of capital area move and the monthly income of household as socio-economic variables, and size of house, access of subway area, residence area as house characteristics. According to the estimation result, we can derive som implications. For example, the higher monthly income of household, more member of student, bigger size of house, longer residence duration of Cheonan, the more they prefer owing house apartment to renting it. In addition, as householders are older, size of house is bigger, they prefer owing-non apartment to owing house-apartment.

Impact of Various Feedstock Attributes on the Social Acceptance on Bioethanol Promotion in South Korea (바이오에탄올 보급에 대한 사회적 수용성 분석: 바이오에탄올 원료 속성을 중심으로)

  • Li, Dmitriy D.;Bae, Jeong Hwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.49-77
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    • 2021
  • This study uses a choice experiment approach to examine whether different types of feedstocks as well as other attributes such as the cost of bioethanol, bioethanol blending ratio, and government support policies affect consumers' biofuel preferences. We apply a standard conditional logit model, a mixed logit model (MLM), and individual coefficient estimation model (ICM) to estimate the parameters of the investigated attributes. The results show that people prefer domestic and non-food feedstock, along with tax exemption as a support policy. All the attributes show unobservable preference heterogeneity in the MLM and ICM. In particular, willingness to pay for attributes are higher in the genetically modified (GM) feedstock-unknown group than in the known one. We show the importance of using domestic and non-food feedstocks and managing GM feedstocks carefully to avoid consumer resistance when producing bioethanol in South Korea.