• Title/Summary/Keyword: Life time estimation

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A Study on the Accelerated Life Test for the Estimation of Licorice Durability in Cosmetics (화장품 중 유용성감초추출물의 유통기한 예측을 위한 가속수명 시험연구)

  • Lee, So-Mi;Joo, Kyeong-Mi;Park, Jong-Eun;Jeong, Hye-Jin;Chang, Ih-Seop
    • Journal of the Society of Cosmetic Scientists of Korea
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.197-201
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    • 2007
  • Oil soluble licorice extract(licorice extract) is an officially approved cosmetic component as a whitening ingredient in Korea. The durability of licorice, during which the whitening effect can be maintained in optimum condition, must be accurately defined. Since the cosmetics durability under real condition is relatively longer than its development time. It is needed to predict the real durability interval from the experimental measurement under simulated operating conditions. We analyzed the relationship between the licorice lifetime and the high temperature condition by using Arrhenius equation. We have established the constant stress test with temperature of $50^{\circ}C$, $55^{\circ}C$, and $60^{\circ}C$ condition, within which no formulation change of licorice products is expected for the accelerated stress test. In this paper, the lifetime of licorice in cosmetics was defined as time period for its 10% contents reduction. We observed that the lifetime of licorice is 580 h at $50^{\circ}C$, 319 h at $55^{\circ}C$ and 166 h at $60^{\circ}C$. Using the above experimental data, we obtained the equation for the relationship between the licorice lifetime and temperature as follows; log(lifetime)=-35.0243 + 1.15322$\times$(11604.83/temperature). From this equation, the lifetime of licorice at $25^{\circ}C$ can be estimated as 26 months. The estimated result was verified by measuring full lifetime of licorice. In fact, there was no significant difference between the estimated lifetime and real measurement within 95 % significance level. This study can be applied to other useful cosmetic components for the fast estimation of the exact durability.

An Estimation Model for the Replacement Parts based on the Operational Availability of Hi-Pass System (하이패스 운용가용도를 이용한 부품의 교체 추정 모델)

  • Hwang, Eui-duk;Heo, Seo Jeong;Kim, Chang Suk;Cheul, Son Dong
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.6 no.6
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    • pp.285-291
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    • 2015
  • FTMS, TCS, ITS equipment such as high-pass highway are just a situation that does not lack traceability and passive surveillance is related to fault DB has so far consisted of an integrated operations management to maximize utilization of the facility. In addition, there is no replacement parts are replaced when a failure occurs, increasing the number of parts and repair time I have trouble growing, and becoming a service interruption whenever you replace each time. In this study, proactively manage the failure history of a highway facility ITS tries to preventive maintenance. Therefore, the error history is based on the reliability of the high-pass facilities theory to calculate the reliability of the system through a systematic statistical analysis Operational Availability. The fault number and the time the replacement period through the estimate decreases and can reduce the budget expenses by securing the spare parts quantity, establish a management plan in part by improving the quality of the system through constant preventive maintenance, quality of service at all times It may direct the non-stop operation state of the available state.

An Estimation of the Efficiency and Satisfaction for EEG Practice Using the Training 10-20 Electrode System: A Questionnaire Survey (연습용 10-20 Electrode System을 이용한 뇌파검사 실습의 효율성과 만족도 평가)

  • Lee, Chang Hee;Kim, Dae Jin;Choi, Jeong Su;Lee, Jong-Woo;Lee, Min Woo;Cho, Jae Wook;Kim, Suhng Wook
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.300-307
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    • 2017
  • Electroencephalography (EEG) is distinct from other medical imaging tests in that it is a functional test that helps to diagnosis disorders related to the brain, such as epilepsy. The most important abilities for a medical technologist when performing an EEG are knowing the exact location of the electrode and recording the EEG wave clearly, except for artifacts. Although theoretical education and practical training are both included in the curriculum for improving these abilities, sufficient practical training has been lacking due to problems like expensive equipment and insufficient practical training time. We try to solve these issues by manufacturing the training 10-20 electrode system and by estimating the efficiency and satisfaction of the training 10-20 electrode system through a questionnaire. The time required for practical training using this system was $43.58{\pm}9.647min$, which proved to be efficient. The satisfaction score of participants who experienced curriculum practical training was improved from $7.21{\pm}2.285$ to $9.46{\pm}1.166$. Based on these findings, it is considered that practical training via the use of the training 10-20 electrode system will solve the problems, such as lack of equipment and insufficient practical training time. Nonetheless, to further improve the training 10-20 electrode system, it must overcome the limitations of developing a device capable of checking the actual brain waves and validating the exact location of electrode attachment.

Detection and Assessment of Forest Cover Change in Gangwon Province, Inter-Korean, Based on Gaussian Probability Density Function (가우시안 확률밀도 함수기반 강원도 남·북한 지역의 산림면적 변화탐지 및 평가)

  • Lee, Sujong;Park, Eunbeen;Song, Cholho;Lim, Chul-Hee;Cha, Sungeun;Lee, Sle-gee;Lee, Woo-Kyun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.5_1
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    • pp.649-663
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    • 2019
  • The 2018 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report announced that deforestation in North Korea is the most extreme situation and in terms of climate change, this deforestation is a global scale issue. To respond deforestation, various study and projects are conducted based on remote sensing, but access to public data in North Korea is limited, and objectivity is difficult to be guaranteed. In this study, the forest detection based on density estimation in statistic using Landsat imagery was conducted in Gangwon province which is the only administrative district divided into South and North. The forest spatial data of South Korea was used as data for the labeling of forest and Non-forest in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and a threshold (0.6658) for forest detection was set by Gaussian Probability Density Function (PDF) estimation by category. The results show that the forest area decreased until the 2000s in both Korea, but the area increased in 2010s. It is also confirmed that the reduction of forest area on the local scale is the same as the policy direction of urbanization and industrialization at that time. The Kappa value for validation was strong agreement (0.8) and moderate agreement (0.6), respectively. The detection based on the Gaussian PDF estimation is considered a method for complementing the statistical limitations of the existing detection method using satellite imagery. This study can be used as basic data for deforestation in North Korea and Based on the detection results, it is necessary to protect and restore forest resources.

Development of a Device for Estimating the Optimal Artificial Insemination Time of Individually Stalled Sows Using Image Processing (영상처리기법을 이용한 스톨 사육 모돈의 인공수정적기 예측 장치 개발)

  • Kim, D.J.;Yeon, S.C.;Chang, H.H.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.677-688
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    • 2007
  • 돼지를 포함한 대부분의 동물은 일정한 발정주기를 가지고 일정한 시기에 배란을 하는 자연배란동물이지만, 토끼, 고양이, 밍크 등의 암놈은 교미자극에 의해 배란이 일어나는 유기배란동물이다. 또한 1년에 한 번만 발정하는 단발정동물과 1년에 수차례 발정하는 다발정동물이 있다. 이 중에서 모돈은 1년에 수차례 발정하는 다발정 동물로서 발정기에 들면 비발정기와는 다른 행동을 나타낸다(Diehl 등, 2001). 양돈가의 수익을 최대화하기 위해서는 비생산일수를 최소로 줄여야 한다. 모돈의 비생산일수를 줄일 수 있는 한 가지 방법은 성공적으로 교배를 시키는 것이다. 이처럼 성공적으로 교배를 시키기 위해서는 수정적기를 정확히 예측해야 한다. 만약 수정적기를 정확히 판단하지 못하여 수태가 되지 않으면, 비생산일수가 늘어나 손실을 입게 된다. 따라서 수정적기를 정확히 판단하는 것은 모돈의 성공적인 인공수정에 있어서 중요한 요소이다. 수정적기는 배란이 일어나기 전 10시간에서 12시간 사이이며, 발정이 시작되는 시점을 기준으로 하였을 때 경산돈의 경우 26시간에서 34시간 사이이고 미경산돈의 경우는 18시간에서 26시간 사이이다(Evans 등, 2001). 현재 하루에 두 번 모돈의 발정을 확인하는 것이 일반화되어 있으며, 이 때 웅돈을 접촉시키거나 육안관찰을 통하여 발정 유무를 판단한다. 이러한 방법에는 숙련된 기술과 풍부한 경험이 요구될 뿐만 아니라 총 소요노동력의 30% 정도가 요구된다(Perez 등, 1986). 하루에 두 번밖에 발정을 감지하지 않기 때문에 발정이 언제 시작되었는지를 정확히 알 수 없으며, 또한 발정의 대부분이 새벽에 시작되므로 수정적기를 정확히 판단하기란 매우 어렵다. 만약 발정을 감지했더라도 적기에 인공수정을 하지 못한다면, 수태율이 낮아지므로 경제적 손실이 초래된다. 현재 이러한 문제점 때문에 2회에서 3회에 걸쳐 인공수정을 하고 있으나 이에 따른 소요비용과 소요노동력 등은 양돈가의 부담을 가중시키는 요인이 되고 있다. 돼지는 발정기가 되면 비발정기에 나타내지 않던 외음부의 냄새를 맡는 행동, 귀를 세우는 행동 및 승가허용 행동 등을 나타낸다(Diehl 등, 2001). 또한 돼지는 비발정기에 비하여 발정기에 더 많은 활동량을 나타낸다(Altman, 1941; Erez and Hartsock, 1990). Freson 등(1998)은 스톨에서 개별적으로 사육되고 있는 모돈의 활동량을 적외선센서를 이용하여 측정함으로써 발정을 86%까지 감지하였다고 보고하였다. 그러나 이 연구는 단지 모돈의 발정을 감지하였을 뿐 번식관리에 있어서 가장 중요한 수정적기의 판단 기준을 제시하지 못하였다. 따라서, 본 연구는 스톨에서 사육되는 모돈의 활동량을 측정함으로써 발정시작시각을 감지하고 이를 기준으로 인공수정적기를 예측할 수 있는 인공수정적기 예측 장치를 개발한 후 이의 성능을 농장실증실험을 통하여 시험하고자 수행되었다.

Continual Reassessment Method in Phase I Clinical Trials for Leukemia Patients (백혈병환자 대상의 제1상임상시험 연속재평가방법)

  • Lee, Joo-Hyoung;Song, Hae-Hiang
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.581-594
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    • 2011
  • The traditional method of 3+3 standard design and model-based Bayesian continual reassessment method (CRM) are commonly used in Phase I clinical trials to identify the maximal tolerated dose(MTD) of a new drug. In this paper we review clinical examples of Phase I trials that were carried out in patients with refractory or relapsed leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome. The recently proposed 3+1+1 design and rolling-6 design can shorten the trial duration, when a very slow accrual of patients with a simple 3+3 standard design may result in the untimely termination of trials. Too conservative approaches in determining the dose levels in Phase I clinical trials can leave clinical investigators unable to accurately determine the MTD. When determining future patient doses, the designs that use a time-to-event CRM can cooperate late toxicities by accounting for the proportion of the observation period of each enrolled patient. With the CRM design, simulations under different scenarios during the trial are important in detecting the under- or over-estimation of the initial estimate of the dose-limiting toxicity rate for each dose level. We present the advantages and drawbacks of the designs used in Phase I clinical trials for leukemia patients.

Estimation of Storm Hydrographs in a Small Forest Watershed Using a Distributed Hydrological Model (분포형 수문모형을 이용한 산림소유역의 홍수수문곡선의 추정)

  • Lee, Sang-Ho;Woo, Bo-Myeong;Im, Sang-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.43-53
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    • 2008
  • This study was conducted to simulate storm hydrographs on a small forested watershed using TOPMODEL, which is a distributed hydrological model. The Myeongseong watershed, which is 58.3 ha in size, was selected to monitor rainfall and runoff data. The Monte Carlo simulation was also used to calibrate parameters of TOPMODEL. Six rainfall-runoff pairs collected at the watershed in the year 1997 were used for parameter calibration, and eight rainfall-runoff pairs collected during the period of $1998\sim1999$ were used for validation effort. The errors of runoff volume ranged from -2.74% to 1.81%, and an average value of model efficiency in terms of runoff volume was 0.92 for the calibration period. The average value of observed peak discharge was $0.324m^3\;s^{-1}$ for six rainfall-runoff pairs, while the prediction value was $0.295m^3\;s^{-1}$. The simulation errors of peak discharge varied according to rainfall characteristics and antecedent condition, within ranges of -27.65% to -1.13%. The model efficiency for the validation period was 0.92. For the validation period, observed peak discharges have an average value of $0.087m^3\;s^{-1}$ and average value of simulated peak discharge was $0.090m^3\;s^{-1}$. Observed and simulated values of time to peak for the calibration period were 18.3 hrs and 11.0 hrs, respectively, and 16.6 hrs and 13.5 hrs, respectively, for the validation period.

Estimation and Adjustment Model Considering Time Value of Money for Long-Term Maintenance Cost of Apartment House (시간적 가치를 고려한 공동주택 장기수선충당금 산정 및 조정 모델)

  • Koo, Seonkeun;Kim, Jonghyeob;Jun, Inyeong;Kim, Yeongjin;Yoon, Yousang;Hyun, Changtaek
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.12-21
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    • 2017
  • From 1960, the government decided to build apartment houses on a large scale in order to resolve the rising housing problems. However, the maintenance issues that have arisen from the deterioration of housing has not received adequate attention. The policy focuses only on the supply of housing. By passing new laws, the durable period during which buildings allowed reconstruction was increased, and long term maintenance plans were treated as important issues. The government was then obligated to establish certain long term maintenance plans and costs by legislating a Housing Act and requiring it be adjusted every three years. However, when planning long-term repair costs, doing so without considering the time value of money would become a problem. In addition, if differences between the planned repair costs and actual costs occur, it becomes necessary to adjust the long-term repair costs but, as of yet, the criteria to adjust such things does not exist. For these reasons, if there is lack of money to execute large-scale repair work, a building is unlikely to respond to deterioration of housing; on the other hand, an unnecessary reserve or pool of money can lead to conflict among residents. Therefore, this paper will propose estimation and adjustment models considering the time value of money for long term maintenance costs of apartment houses.

Satisfaction Level and Performance Evaluation for CM Service in Korea (국내 건설사업관리 업무만족도 및 성과평가)

  • Kim, Won-Tae;Chang, Chul-Ki
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.108-117
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    • 2013
  • The domestic CM business market has continued to grow, but its size is relatively small yet in comparison with the total size of the domestic construction industry. Evaluation of CM projects was conducted through questionnaire surveys. Both clients and CM firms showed positive satisfaction levels. Nevertheless, the clients' satisfaction levels were relatively low in safety management, cost management, and document and information management. Superior areas of CM tasks were time management and recovery scheduling, quality control and technical instruction, and design value engineering. On the other hand, inferior areas of CM tasks were claim analysis and dispute resolution, cost estimation, and life cycle costing. Both entities have agreed with the positive effects of CM involvement in terms of cost saving, time reduction, quality improvement, and safety incidents prevention to at least 0~5% extent.

An ELISA-on-a-Chip Biosensor System for Early Screening of Listeria monocytogenes in Contaminated Food Products

  • Seo, Sung-Min;Cho, Il-Hoon;Kim, Joo-Ho;Jeon, Jin-Woo;Oh, Eun-Gyoung;Yu, Hong-Sik;Shin, Soon-Bum;Lee, Hee-Jung;Paek, Se-Hwan
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.30 no.12
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    • pp.2993-2998
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    • 2009
  • An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)-on-a-chip (EOC) biosensor combined with cell concentration technology based on immuno-magnetic separation (IMS) was investigated for use as a potential tool for early screening of Listeria monocytogenes (L. monocytogenes) in food products. The target analyte is a well-known pathogenic foodborne microorganism and outbreaks of the food poisoning typically occur due to contamination of normal food products. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop a rapid and reliable sensor that could be utilized on a daily basis to test food products for the presence of this pathogenic microorganism. The sensor was optimized to provide a high detection capability (e.g., 5.9 ${\times}\;10^3$ cells/mL) and, to eventually minimize cultivation time. The cell density was condensed using IMS prior to analysis. Since the concentration rate of IMS was greater than 100-fold, this combination resulted in a detection limit of 54 cells/mL. The EOC-IMS coupled analytical system was then applied to a real sample test of fish intestines. The system was able to detect L. monocytogenes at a concentration of 2.4 CFU/g after pre-enrichment for 6 h from the onset of cell cultivation. This may allow us to monitor the target analyte at a concentration less than 1 CFU/g within a 9 h-cultivation provided a doubling time of 40 min is typically maintained. Based on this estimation, the EOC-IMS system can screen and detect the presence of this microorganism in food products almost within working hours.