• The Journal of Korean Philosophical History
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• no.52
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• pp.393-424
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• 2017

This study investigates the relationship between South Korean youths' Confucian values and sense of citizen ethics while presenting outlook on the sense of citizen ethics based on the theory of human nature. The purpose of this study, by doing so, is to present educational measures. For this purpose, empirical research method was applied in this study. In the empirical study, youths were surveyed and the answers were statistically analyzed and discussed with a view to achieve the study purpose. In the empirical research part of the study, Korean youths' awareness on Confucian values was examined along with its relationship with the sense of citizen ethics. The effect of Confucian values on sense of citizen ethics and their relationship were analyzed to evaluate the receptivity of youths on Confucian ideas and usefulness of sense of citizen ethics. This study investigated a total of final 311 sets of data from male and female students at middle and high schools located in Seoul, Gyeonggi, South Korea. First, to identify the youths' Confucian values and level of sense of citizen ethics, descriptive statistical analysis was conducted. As a result, the survey subjects were found to have, concerning the Confucian values, world view M=3.54, human relations view M=3.66, morality cultivation M=3.76, and social order M=3.45, higher than 3.0 to represent positive levels. The morality cultivation, in particular, was recorded the highest among all whereas the social order was relatively lower, which represents the degree of relying on Confucian values to establish social order. Second, the sub-variables of Confucian values were verified according to the personal characteristics of the surveyed youths and differences in their entire perception was investigated. As a result, according to gender, morality cultivation was found higher in female students (M=3.85) than in male students (M=3.64). According to the subjective economic level of their household, world view was found higher in upper class (M=3.98) than middle-low class (M=3.25) and low class (M=3.22) while human relations view was found higher in middle-upper class (M=3.79) than low class (M=3.46). As for the family type, morality cultivation was found higher in extended family (M=3.83) than nuclear family (M=3.62); and social order was higher in extended family (M=3.54) than nuclear family (M=3.36). Third, to verify the study theme of identifying the effects of youths' Confucian values on sense of citizen morality, hierarchical regression analysis was employed in this study, which used the multi-level model of multiple regression analysis. As a result, the Confucian values was found to have significant positive (+) correlations with the entire sense of citizen ethics in order of human relations view(${\beta}=.499$), world view(${\beta}=.412$), social order(${\beta}=.341$), and morality cultivation(${\beta}=.241$). Confucian value showed significant positive (+) correlations with autonomy in order of morality cultivation(${\beta}=.458$), human relations view(${\beta}=.454$), social order(${\beta}=.362$), and world view(${\beta}=.158$). Confucian values was found to have significant positive (+) correlations with community spirit in order of human relations view(${\beta}=.295$), social order(${\beta}=.281$), and morality cultivation(${\beta}=.232$). As shown in the findings above, youths' Confucian values was found to have significant positive (+) effects on the sense of citizen ethics. It is noted that the higher the Confucian values, the more positive the sense of citizen ethics would be. Consequentially, the Confucian values was identified to play an important role in the sense of citizen ethics in the modern society. Based on this analysis, this study presented specific measures - the necessity and possibility of education on sense of citizen ethics under the theory of human nature. To this end, this study proposed to find an optimal interface between the contemporary sense of citizen ethics and Confucian ethics through the respect for human life and nature, man of virtue as the ideal human model, and united society as a desirable society model.

• The Journal of Korean Philosophical History
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• no.35
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• pp.309-334
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• 2012

This study attempts to study in what form Folk Taoism in the late of $Chos{\breve{o}}n$ Dynasty has existed and discuss the contents and characteristics of ideological aspects forming the foundation of private Taoism. While Guan Yu Belief(關帝信仰) in the late of $Chos{\breve{o}}n$ Dynasty is a folk belief focusing on Guan Yu, Seoneumjeulgyo(善陰?敎) and Musangdan(無相壇) are religious groups with organization. In case of Seoneumjeulgyo(善陰?敎), 'Seoneumjeul' contains perspective of Tian(天觀) of Confucianism but the ascetic practice method is to practice by reciting the name of the Buddha and the targets of a belief are Gwanje, Munchang, Buwoo. This shows the unified phenomenon of Confucianism, Buddhism, Taoism of Folk Taoism in the late of $Chos{\breve{o}}n$ Dynasty. Guan Yu Belief started at the national level led by the royal family of $Chos{\breve{o}}n$ after Japanese Invasion of Korea in 1592 was firmly settled in non-official circles. Guan Yu in the late of $Chos{\breve{o}}n$ Dynasty is expressed as the incarnation of loyalty and filial piety as well as God controlling life, death and fate. As this divine power and empowerment were spreading as scriptures among people, Guan Yu Belief was settled as a target to defeat the evil and invoke a blessing. Seoneumjeulgyo is the religious group that imitated 'Paekryunsa(白蓮社)' of Ming Qing time of China. Seoneumjeulgyo emphasized 'sympathy' with God through chanting. And it expressed writing written in the state of religious ecstasy as 'Binan(飛鸞).' Binan is also called as revelation and means to be revealed from heaven in the state united with God. Seoneumjeulgyo pursued the state united with God through a recitation of a spell and made scriptures written in the state united with God as its central doctrine. Musangdan published and spread Nanseo(鸞書,Book written by the revelation from God) and Seonso(善書) while worshipping Sam Sung Je Kun(三聖帝君). The scriptures of Folk Taoismin the late of $Chos{\breve{o}}n$ Dynasty can be roughly divided into Nanseo(鸞書) and Seonso(善書). Nanseo is a book written by the revelation from God and Seonso is a book to the standards of good deeds and encourage a person to do them such as Taishangganyingbian(太上感應篇) and Gonghwagyuk(功過格). The characteristics of Folk Taoism in the late of $Chos{\breve{o}}n$ Dynasty are as follows. First, a shrine of Guan Yu built for political reasons played a central role of Folk Taoism in the late of $Chos{\breve{o}}n$ Dynasty. Second, specific private Taoist groups such as Temple $Myory{\breve{o}}nsa$ and Musangdan appeared in the late of $Chos{\breve{o}}n$ Dynasty. These are Nandan Taoism(鸞壇道敎) that pursued the unity of God through 'sympathy' with God. Third, private Taoism of $Chos{\breve{o}}n$ was influenced by the unity of Confucianism, Buddhism, Taoism with private Taoism in the Qing Dynasty of China and religious organization form etc. Fourth, the Folk Taoism scriptures of $Chos{\breve{o}}n$ are divided into Nanseo and Seonso and Nanseo directly made in $Chos{\breve{o}}n$ is expected to be the key to reveal the characteristics of Folk Taoism.

• (The)Study of the Eastern Classic
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• no.69
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• pp.349-371
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• 2017

"Hajaeilgi(荷齋日記)" was written by Ji Gyu-sik, a gongin of Saongwon(司饔院)'s branch, almost everyday for 20 years and 7 months from January 1st, 1891 until the leap month of June 29th, 1911. It deals with many different areas including domestic and foreign circumstances, custom, rituals, all the affairs related to the branch, and also everyday life events he did see or hear about. Particularly, Ji Gyu-sik did not belong to the yangban class, and we can hardly find diaries written by such class' people. Here, what this author pays attention to among the things written in "Hajaeilgi" is the contents about folklore. Ji Gyu-sik wrote in his "Hajaeilgi" about things related to folklore, for example, seasonal customs, folk plays, rituals, or folk beliefs that were actually practiced then as a person not belonging to the yangban class. Such diaries are rare, and its value is highly appreciated as a material, and it is meaningful in the aspects of folklore as well. Therefore, as part of the work to look into folklore found in "Hajaeilgi", this author focuses on national rituals and folk beliefs in it. The things that have been discussed earlier can be summed up as follows: About national rituals, it is sorry that it only deals with the emperor's enthronement and emperor and crown prince's birthday in garye(嘉禮); however, it is meaningful to know that the people faithfully carried out national ceremonies and celebrations then. Particularly, it is noteworthy that during the national ceremonies or celebrations, students were asked to sing the national anthem. About hyungrye(凶禮), only it deals with the court funeral rite. Aside from Minbi's funeral rite, the court funeral rite was performed properly at the right time according to the procedure like before, and also, it seems that the people fulfilled it faithfully by order of the government. Also, it can be learned from it that Japanese killed Minbi, burned the body with oil, and left the ashes behind. About folk beliefs, the branch held a memorial service at the shrine of the town regularly. The town, too, performed Gocheongsinsa each year. The money needed for the memorial service was collected from the town people differently according to their financial situations, and they prepared for jesu for the ancestral rite altogether. The memorial service was carried out in Sansindang or Bugeundang, too, and it was common that they summoned a shaman to perform a gut. The diary is valuable as material. After being a Christian, Ji Gyu-sik once tried to abolish sinsa jesa held in hoesa and get rid of saesin(賽神), that is, a gut or pudakgeori, but he had no choice but to follow the precedent. Meanwhile, it is also noteworthy that when the town suffered from floor and infectious disease, Ji Gyu-sik installed an altar in front of his house for the town's wellbeing and health, prepared for jesu including offerings and drinks, and held a memorial service to Hwangcheonhuto(皇天后土; the gods of heaven and earth) accompanied with the town people. Also, when he had any hardships in his family, Ji Gyu-sik summoned a shaman for a gut or offered a devout prayer to the mountainous god. Such shamanism or the things like worshiping Gwanseongjegun(關聖帝君) mostly in the beginning of January and telling fortunes about the year were all folk beliefs. This was very popular among the people, and it seems that it was deeply rooted in his life as well. Also, Ji Gyu-sik supported Fengshui beliefs, and it seems that it is not different from the people's general tendencies, either. As described above, "Hajaeilgi" dealing with national rituals and folk beliefs in it is valuable as material and is meaningful for research on forklore, and moreover, it is also significant in the aspects of forklore as well.

• (The)Study of the Eastern Classic
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• no.50
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• pp.55-88
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• 2013

Gwonwu Hong Chan-yu is one of the modern and contemporary Korean scholars of Sino-Korean literature and one of the literati of his era, so is respected as a guiding light by academic descendants. Gwonwu was a teacher of his era, who experienced all the turbulence of Korean society, such as the Japanese occupation by force, the Korean War, the military dictatorship, and the struggle for democracy, and who educated and led young scholars of his time. However, academia has not payed attention to his life and achievements since his death. This paper is to examine the poetry of Gwonwu Hong Chan-yu, one of the representative modern and contemporary scholar of Sini-Korean literature, which has not yet been discussed by academia. The minimal meaning of this paper is that it is a first work based on his anthology, which has not been discussed by academia, and a first full-scale study on Gwonwu Hongchan-yu. For the reason, this paper aims at the detailed inspection of his poetic pieces recorded in his anthology. Nonetheless, despite such intentions, some limits cannot be avoided here and there in this paper for the insufficient knowledge and academic capability of this paper's writer and for the lack of academic sources. Gwonwu's poetry examined through his anthology shows the characteristic which is that his poems focus on exposing his own internal emotions. Such a characteristic says that his idea of poetic literature payed attention more to individuality, that is exposition of private emotions, than to social utility of poems. Gwonwu's such an idea of poetic literature can be generally affirmed throughout his poetry. Accordingly, Gwonwu preferred classical Chinese poems to archaistic poems, and single poems to serial poems; and avoided writing poems within social relations such as farewell-poems, bestowal-poems, and mourning-poems. When the characteristics of Gwonwu's poetic literature get summarized as such, however, some questions remain. The preferential question is whether the poems in his anthology are the whole poetry of him. Although Gwonwu's poetic pieces that the writer of this paper have checked out till now are all in his anthology, it is very much questionable whether Gwonwu's poetry can be summed up only with these poems. The next question is what is the writing method for taking joy(spice), sentiment, and full-heart into his poems if Gwonwu's poems focus on exposing his internal emotions, and if poems exposing joy and poems exposing sentiment and full-heart appear coherently in various different spaces and circumstances of writing. The final question is what are the meanings of Gwonwu's poems if his poetry checked out through his anthology directly shows either the reality carried in his poems or the reality of a time in his life. The questions listed above are thought to be resolved by the synchronizing process of stereoscopic searches both for Gwonwu as an individual and for the era of his life. Especially, spurring deeper researches toward a new direction regarding Gwonwu's poetry has an important meaning for construction of a complete modern and contemporary history of Sino-Korean literature and for procurement of continuous research on Sino-Korean literature and its history. For the reason, it is thought that more efforts of researchers are required.

• (The)Study of the Eastern Classic
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• no.56
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• pp.35-73
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• 2014

This paper examined the poem world of Simjae(深齋) Cho Geung-seop(曺兢燮: 1873-1933) in the turning point of the modern era, focused on his Hwaunsi (和韻詩: Poems written by using the rhymes of other poets' poems). In his poems, there are lots of Hwaunsi on the poems of Tu Fu(杜甫) and Su Shi(蘇軾), especially. This makes him regarded as a medieval poet, engaged in Chinese poem creation in the most traditional method in the turbulent period. Looking at the Hawunsi(和韻詩) alone, Simjae's creative life became the starting point of turnaround at around 40 years old. Before the age of 40, the poets in the Tang Dynasty and Song Dynasty and Ming Dynasty and Qing Dynasty and Korean figures like Lee Hwang(李滉), as well as Tu Fu and Su Shi were the subjects of his Hwanunsi. After the age of 40, some examples of writing poems using the rhymes of other poets' poems, especially Korean figures related to regions, are often found, reducing Hwaunsi on Tu Fu and Su Shi. Simjae called Tu Fu the integration of poets, talking about the integrity of poetic talent and his being highly proficient in mood and view. As reflecting such an awareness, the themes and moods and views are demonstrated diversely in Simjae's Hwaunsi. Although, he did not reveal his thinking about the poems of Su Shi, he seemed to love Su Shi's poems to some degree. The closeness to the original poems, the poems of Tu Fu are relatively higher than those of Su Shi. Roughly speaking, Simjae tried to find his own individuality, intending to follow Tu Fu, but, he seemed to attempt to reveal his intention using Su Shi's poems, rather than trying to imitate. To carefully examine, Simjae wrote Hwaunsi, but he did not just imitate, but revealed the aesthetics of comparison and difference. In many cases, he made new meanings by implanting his intentions in the poems, while sharing the opportunity of creation, rather than bringing the theme and mood and view as they are. The Hwaunsi on Su Shi's poems reveal the closeness to the original poems relatively less. This can be the trace of an effort to make his own theme and individuality, not being dominated by the Hwaun(和韻: using the rhymes of other poets' poems) entirely, as he used the creative method having many restrictions. However, it is noted that the Hwaunsi on Tu Fu's poems was not written much, after the age of 40. Is this the reason why he realized literary reality that he could not cope with anymore with only his effort within the Hwaunsi? For example, he wrote four poems by borrowing Su Shi's Okjungsi(獄中詩: poem written in jail) rhymes and also wrote Gujung Japje(拘中雜題), in 1919, while he was detained. In these poems, his complex contemplation and emotion, not restricted by any poet's rhymes, are revealed diversely. Simjae's Hwaunsi testifies the reality, in which Chinese poetry's habitus existed and the impressive existence mode at the turning point of the modern era. Although, the creation of Hwaunsi reflects his disposition of liking the old things, it is judged that his psychology, resisting modern characters' change, affected to some degree in the hidden side. In this regard, Simaje's Hwaunsi encounters limitation on its own, however, it has significance in that some hidden facts were revealed in the modern Chinese poetry history, which was captured with attention under the name of novelty, eccentricity and modernity.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.111-126
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• 2020

Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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• v.41 no.2
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• pp.110-118
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• 2021

This study was conducted to investigate the effects of species and varieties of summer forage crops on growth characteristics and productivity in Sihwa reclaimed land. The summer forage crops used in the trial were silage corn, sorghum×sudangrass hybrid(SSH), and proso millet. For each forage species, Gwangpyeongok(GPO), P15453, P1952 and P2088 were used for silage corn, and 877F, Green star, Honey chew, and Turbo gold cultivars were used for SSH. For proso millet, Ibaekchal, Geumsilchal and Manhongchal developed by the National Institute of Crop Science were used. Silage corn and SSH were sown on May 21, 2019 and proso millet on June 4, and harvested on September 2. There was no significant difference in plant and ear height of silage corn among varieties. P1543 was the highest and P2088 was the lowest in yield of silage corn, but there was no significant difference among treatments. Among the SSH, the plant height of 877F was the highest and Turbo gold variety had the smallest (p<0.05). As for the dry matter(DM) yields, 877F had the highest at 3,862 kg/ha and Green star had the lowest at 2,669 kg/ha (p<0.05). The fresh matter yield of proso millet was 15,778 kg/ha, which was higher than that of corn or SSH, The average dry matter yield was 4,780 kg/ha, and Ibaekchal variety had the highest DM yield compared to other varieties (p<0.05). P2088 had the highest TDN content and GPO was the lowest (p<0.05). As for the SSH, the TDN content of Green star and Honey chew varieties was significantly higher, and the RFV value was the lowest in Turbo gold. The average crude protein content of proso millet was 7.03%, and the highest TDN and RFV values were 64.36% and 106 in Geumsilchal. In the experiment of the germination rate of summer forage crops according to salt concentration, silage corn showed a germination rate of 83.1% even at 0.4% salinity. In particular, P2088 and P1921 varieties had more than 80% germination rate even at 0.6% salt concentration. As for the SSH, the germination rate of 877F was 93.3% even at 0.8% salinity, and 88.3% with Honey chew, indicating higher resistance to salt concentration compared to other varieties. Proso millet showed a high germination rate of 84.0 to 88.7% even at a salt concentration of 0.6%. Considering the above results, proso millet was recommended as the most suitable forage crop species in the Sihwa reclaimed land with high salt concentration, and the Ibaekchal variety is recommended as a suitable forage crop due to its high yield.

• Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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• v.54 no.1
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• pp.70-99
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• 2021

Yeong-am's 'Jeongwon (貞元)' stone monument, designated as the Jeollanam-do Cultural Heritage, is considered to be the oldest of the epigraphs in Jeollanam-do. Immediately after the discovery, the possibility of it being a Maehyangbi of Memorial Inscriptions was mentioned and attracted attention. However, there is an absolute age of the 'Jeongwon (貞元) of 2 years' (786), so despite it is a relatively early epigraph (金石文), there are not many papers on the theme related to this stone monument. I believe that this stone monument is a Maehyangbi (埋香碑). While reviewing and comparing the results of the existing research, I decoded the text from the 42nd character of the 4th line. As a result of the review, that was conducted, it was confirmed that this stone monument is truly a Maehyangbi (埋香碑). In particular, it was recorded in the literature of the late Joseon Dongguk-myungsanggi (東國名山記) that the letters of the Maehyangbi (埋香碑) are not recognizable. However, it is clearly stated that this stone monument is a Maehyangbi (埋香碑). Although there is no common expression for 'bury (埋)' or 'incense burial (埋香)' in the traditional Maehyangbi (埋香碑), which were popular in the late Goryeo and early Joseon Periods, it can be seen that it is a Maehyangbi (埋香碑) from the words "hide (呑藏)" and "10 bundles of fragrant incense (合香十束)" that are engraved on the stone monument with the name 'Jeongwon.' In other words, it is thought that it meant 'hide (呑藏)' instead of 'bury (埋)'. Circumstantial evidence for the monument of Jingamseonsa (眞鑑禪師), built in 888, contains the an epigraph from the Unified Silla Era. There is a phrase on it that says 'Plant incense on the shore (海岸植香)' on the monument of Jingamseonsa (眞鑑禪師), and it conveys its meaning without using the character 'bury (埋)'. As a result of the absence of the character 'bury (埋)' on the stone monument with the name 'Jeongwon', it is not considered as a Maehyangbi (埋香碑). However, there is evidence that the stone monument with the name 'Jeongwon (貞元)' is in fact a Maehyangbi (埋香碑) and it is also in the Geumpyoseok (禁標石; Forbidden Stone) around Gukjangsaeng (國長生) and at the entrance of Dogapsa Temple (道甲寺). The letters written on the gold sign suggest the possibility that the charcoal used to burn incense (香炭) at the royal tombs of King Jeongjo (正祖) was produced around at Dogapsa Temple (道甲寺) in Wolchulsan (月出山). Since the charcoal used to burn incense (香炭) is naturally related to incense (香), it has been shown that the area around Wolchulsan, where Dogapsa Temple is located, has a long history related to incense (香). The letters visible on the stone monument, the record of Dongguk-myungsanggi (東國名山記) in the late Joseon Dynasty, and the letters on the Geompyoseok (禁標石; Forbidden Stone), all show that the stone monument with the name 'Jeongwon (貞元)' is a Maehyangbi (埋香碑). Considering the fact that the earliest Maehyangbi (埋香碑) in existence is the Maehyangbi (埋香碑) in Yeongam (靈巖) Ippam-ri (笠巖里), which has two dates from 1371 at the end of Goryeo and 1410 at the beginning of Joseon, the stone monument with the name 'Jeongwon' which was set up in 786, would be the oldest Maehyangbi (埋香碑) that we know of. In addition, there is a historical significance in that the Maehyangbi (埋香碑) is proven in the record of Dongguk-myungsanggi (東國名山記), a document from the late Joseon period.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.83-102
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• 2021

The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

• Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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• v.54 no.1
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• pp.220-237
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• 2021

This study carried out the conservation treatment for the mattress put on the bed, which is one of 4 items in National Folklore Cultural Heritage, the Red-lacquered Furniture with the inlaid mother-of-pearl design used by Empress Sunjeonghyo (presumed), after identifying the characteristics of the manufacturing techniques and the used materials. And the study intends to compare it with the mattress placed in the Daejojeong in the Changdeokgung Palace in order to identify the characteristics of mattresses domestically used during the 1920s and 1930s. From the analysis of the mattress presumably used by Empress Sunjeonghyo, it was identified that the mattress frame was made of pinaceous hemlock spruce while the webbing and twine in the structural parts were made of jute. The findings are as follows: the burlap had a filling material that was made of jute; the straw mat was made from Oryza; and, the rest of the filling material was cotton. Rayon was used for the top cover while cotton was used for the bottom. As a result of research on the materials and the inner structure, it was found that mattress was manufactured in the form of the upholstery style mainly found in chairs and day-beds in Western furniture. Based on analysis results, materials identical to the original were adopted during the conservation treatment. Next, the process of dismantling, cleaning, repair, reinforcement and assembling was conducted. During the dismantling process, the top cover was newly discovered and some letters (Yokohama, Kobe, and Joseon) were found in the burlap filling, but there was no trace which can clarify its maker or production place. dry cleaning was carried out on the structural parts, filling materials, and the cover, and then the repair and reinforcement were done, preserving the existing materials in the upholstery structure and using the same materials for conservation. The webbing in the structural parts was reinforced using materials identical to the original, and the twine was used for arranging and fixing the springs into wooden frames. For the damaged cotton cloth and burlap, reinforcement materials identical to the original were put over it and sown. For the damaged area of the top cover, reinforcement cloth was cut and then added inside and the damaged area was sown. Assembling was carried out in the reverse order of the dismantling. After the burlap identical to the original material was inserted into the areas in contact with the springs and then fastened, a filling pad, reinforcement cloth, a straw mat, cotton cloth, cotton felt, wide cotton cloth for protecting the cover, and the cover were layered and fastened with tacks. The two mattresses used by Empress Sunjeonghyo differed only by the period of production and followed the same Western upholstery style consisting of the frames, filling materials, and covers. During the conservation treatment process, a velvet cover was newly discovered and the traces of repair in the past were found. Furthermore, identifying straw mats, straw bags, and straws for filling material, this study confirmed changes in the materials used according to the production environment. In the future, it is expected to see changes in the conservation materials during the conservation treatment and manufacturing techniques used for chairs and sofas in the upholstery style belonging to the modern cultural artifacts.