• 한국수학교육학회지시리즈E:수학교육논문집
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• 제37권4호
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• pp.717-736
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• 2023

본 연구는 데이터와 인공지능 예측모델을 활용한 통계프로그램을 개발하여 초등학교 6학년 한 학급에 적용함으로써 학생들의 통계적 소양 신장에 효과가 있는지 확인하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 오늘날 초등학교 통계교육의 문제점을 분석하고, 4차 산업혁명 시대에서 중시되는 데이터와 인공지능 교육을 융합하여 통계적 문제해결의 전 과정을 경험하고 미래에 대한 올바른 예측을 경험해 볼 수 있는 총 15차시의 통계프로그램을 개발하였다. 본 프로그램의 가장 큰 특징은 인공지능 교육의 중점 요소인 데이터의 중요성 인식, 공공데이터플랫폼에서 제공하는 실생활 데이터를 사용하여 맥락을 고려한 자료 수집 및 분석 활동을 포함한다는 것이다. 또한 공학 도구인 엔트리와 이지통계를 활용하고, 인공지능 예측모델을 제작하여 데이터를 기반으로 미래를 예측해 보는 활동으로 구성된다는 점에서 의사소통역량, 정보처리역량, 비판적 사고 역량을 기를 수 있는 역량 중심의 프로그램으로 구성하였다. 본 프로그램의 적용 결과, 프로그램 적용은 초등학생의 통계적 소양에 긍정적 영향을 미쳤을 뿐만 아니라 학생들의 흥미, 주체적이고 비판적 탐구, 통계적 문제해결 전 과정에서의 수학적 의사소통을 관찰할 수 있었다.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제11권11호
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• pp.59-70
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• 2013

디지털 경제를 맞이하여 대부분 자산을 부동산에 투자하고 있어 향후 부동산 가격에 많은 관심을 보이고 있다. 다양한 변수들이 주택 등 부동산 시장에 영향을 미치고 있다. 그 중 대표적으로 세대주와 생산가능인구, 금리, 주가지수 등 4가지 변수들을 선정하여 어느 변수가 서울아파트 가격에 얼마나 통계적으로 유의하게 영향을 미치는지 살펴보았다. 본 연구는 실증적으로 서울아파트가격의 결정모형을 구축하는데 목적이 있다. 분석결과 주가지수만 서울아파트와 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 분석되었다. 세대주나 생산가능인구는 기존의 연구처럼 서울아파트와 방향성은 동일하지만 통계적으로 유의하지 않은 것으로 분석되었다. 독립변수 중에서 서울아파트 가격의 결정요인으로 주가지수만 주요 변수로 선정되었다. 본 연구결과 향후 주택 등 부동산시장의 예측하기 위해서는 주식시장의 전망이 선행되어야 할 것이다.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.221-230
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• 2023

This study proposes a methodology for assessing seismic liquefaction hazard by implementing high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) ground models with high-density/high-precision site investigation data acquired in an area of interest, which would be linked to geotechnical numerical analysis tools. It is possible to estimate the vulnerability of earthquake-induced geotechnical phenomena (ground motion amplification, liquefaction, landslide, etc.) and their triggering complex disasters across an area for urban development with several stages of high-density datasets. In this study, the spatial-ground models for city development were built with a 3D high-precision grid of 5 m × 5 m × 1 m by applying geostatistic methods. Finally, after comparing each prediction error, the geotechnical model from the Gaussian sequential simulation is selected to assess earthquake-induced geotechnical hazards. In particular, with seven independent input earthquake motions, liquefaction analysis with finite element analyses and hazard mappings with LPI and LSN are performed reliably based on the spatial geotechnical models in the study area. Furthermore, various phenomena and parameters, including settlement in the city planning area, are assessed in terms of geotechnical vulnerability also based on the high-resolution spatial-ground modeling. This case study on the high-precision 3D ground model-based zonations in the area of interest verifies the usefulness in assessing spatially earthquake-induced hazards and geotechnical vulnerability and their decision-making support.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.367-379
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• 2012

야구경기에서 순위를 예측하는 것은 야구팬들에게 관심의 대상이 된다. 이러한 순위를 예측하기 위해서 2011년 한국프로야구 기록 자료를 바탕으로 산술평균방법, 가중평균방법, 주성분분석방법, 주성분회귀분석 방법을 제시한다. 표준화를 통한 산술평균, 상관계수를 이용한 가중평균과 주성분 분석을 이용해서 순위를 예측하고, 최종모형으로 주성분회귀분석 모형이 선택되었다. 주성분 분석으로 축약된 변수를 이용해서 회귀분석을 실시하여, 투수부분, 타자부분, 투수와 타자부분의 순위예측 모형을 제안한다. 예측된 회귀모형을 통해서 2012년도 순위 예측이 가능하다.

• 대한인간공학회지
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.291-298
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• 2012

Objective: The aim of this study is to predict Korean text entry on touchscreens using ACT-R cognitive architecture. Background: Touchscreen application in devices such as satellite navigation devices, PDAs, mobile phones, etc. has been increasing, and the market size is expanding. Accordingly, there is an increasing interest to develop and evaluate the interface to enhance the user experience and increase satisfaction in the touchscreen environment. Method: In this study, Korean text entry performance in the touchscreen environment was analyzed using ACT-R. The ACT-R model considering the characteristics of the Korean language which is composed of vowels and consonants was established. Further, this study analyzed if the prediction of Korean text entry is possible through the ACT-R cognitive model. Results: In the analysis results, no significant difference on performance time between model prediction and empirical data was found. Conclusion: The proposed model can predict the accurate physical movement time as well as cognitive processing time. Application: This study is useful in conducting model-based evaluation on the text entry interface of the touchscreen and enabled quantitative and effective evaluation on the diverse types of Korean text input interfaces through the cognitive models.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.70-77
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• 2012

Purpose: To evaluate the patterns of tumor shape and to compare tumor volume derived from simple diameter-based ellipsoid measurement with that derived from tracing the entire tumor contour using region of interest (ROI)-based 3D volumetry with respect to the prediction outcome in cervical cancer patients treated with concurrent chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Materials and Methods: Magnetic resonance imaging was performed in 98 patients with cervical cancer (stage IB-IIIB). The tumor shape was classified into two categories: ellipsoid and non-ellipsoid shape. ROI-based volumetry was derived from each magnetic resonance slice on the work station. For the diameter-based surrogate "ellipsoid volume," the three orthogonal diameters were measured to calculate volume as an ellipsoid. Results: The more than half of tumor (55.1%) had a non-ellipsoid configuration. The predictions for outcome were consistent between two volume groups, with overall survival of 93.6% and 87.7% for small tumor (<20 mL), 62.9% and 69.1% for intermediate-size tumor (20-39 mL), and 14.5% and 16.7% for large tumors (${\geq}$40 mL) using ROI and diameter based measurement, respectively. Disease-free survival was 93.8% and 90.6% for small tumor, 54.3% and 62.7% for intermediate-size tumor, and 13.7% and 10.3% for large tumor using ROI and diameter based method, respectively. Differences in outcome between size groups were statistically significant, and the differences in outcome predicted by the tumor volume by two different methods. Conclusion: Our data suggested that large numbers of cervical cancers are not ellipsoid. However, simple diameter-based tumor volume measurement appears to be useful in comparison with ROI-based volumetry for predicting outcome in cervical cancer patients.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 1997년도 추계학술대회발표논문집; 홍익대학교, 서울; 1 Nov. 1997
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• pp.105-108
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• 1997

Previous studies in stock market predictions using artificial intelligence techniques such as artificial neural networks and case-based reasoning, have focused mainly on spot market prediction. Korea launched trading in index futures market (KOSPI 200) on May 3, 1996, then more people became attracted to this market. Thus, this research intends to predict the daily up/down fluctuant direction of the price for KOSPI 200 index futures to meet this recent surge of interest. The forecasting methodologies employed in this research are the integration of genetic algorithm and artificial neural network (GAANN) and the integration of genetic algorithm and case-based reasoning (GACBR). Genetic algorithm was mainly used to select relevant input variables. This study adopts the categorical data preprocessing based on expert's knowledge as well as traditional data preprocessing. The experimental results of each forecasting method with each data preprocessing method are compared and statistically tested. Artificial neural network and case-based reasoning methods with best performance are integrated. Out-of-the Model Integration and In-Model Integration are presented as the integration methodology. The research outcomes are as follows; First, genetic algorithms are useful and effective method to select input variables for Al techniques. Second, the results of the experiment with categorical data preprocessing significantly outperform that with traditional data preprocessing in forecasting up/down fluctuant direction of index futures price. Third, the integration of genetic algorithm and case-based reasoning (GACBR) outperforms the integration of genetic algorithm and artificial neural network (GAANN). Forth, the integration of genetic algorithm, case-based reasoning and artificial neural network (GAANN-GACBR, GACBRNN and GANNCBR) provide worse results than GACBR.

• 대기
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.287-306
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• 2010

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is applied for Typhoon Wukong (200610) to investigate the performance of ensemble forecasts depending on experimental configurations of the EnKF. In addition, the ensemble sensitivity analysis is applied to the forecast and analysis ensembles generated in EnKF, to investigate the possibility of using the ensemble sensitivity analysis as the adaptive observation guidance. Various experimental configurations are tested by changing model error, ensemble size, assimilation time window, covariance relaxation, and covariance localization in EnKF. First of all, experiments using different physical parameterization scheme for each ensemble member show less root mean square error compared to those using single physics for all the forecast ensemble members, which implies that considering the model error is beneficial to get better forecasts. A larger number of ensembles are also beneficial than a smaller number of ensembles. For the assimilation time window, the experiment using less frequent window shows better results than that using more frequent window, which is associated with the availability of observational data in this study. Therefore, incorporating model error, larger ensemble size, and less frequent assimilation window into the EnKF is beneficial to get better prediction of Typhoon Wukong (200610). The covariance relaxation and localization are relatively less beneficial to the forecasts compared to those factors mentioned above. The ensemble sensitivity analysis shows that the sensitive regions for adaptive observations can be determined by the sensitivity of the forecast measure of interest to the initial ensembles. In addition, the sensitivities calculated by the ensemble sensitivity analysis can be explained by dynamical relationships established among wind, temperature, and pressure.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.195-208
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• 2009

A conventional single design optimality criterion has been used to select an efficient experimental design. But, since an experimental design is constructed with respect to an optimality criterion pre specified by investigators, an experimental design obtained from one optimality criterion which is superior to other designs may perform poorly when the design is evaluated by another optimality criterion. In other words, none of these is entirely satisfactory and even there is no guarantee that a design which is constructed from using a certain design optimality criterion is also optimal to the other design optimality criteria. Thus, it is necessary to develop certain special types of experimental designs that satisfy multiple design optimality criteria simultaneously because these multi-optimal designs (MODs) reflect the needs of the experimenters more adequately. In this article, we present a heuristic approach to construct second-order response surface designs which are more flexible and potentially very useful than the designs generated from a single design optimality criterion in many real experimental situations when several competing design optimality criteria are of interest. In this paper, over cuboidal design region for $3\;{\leq}\;k\;{\leq}\;5$ variables, we construct multi-optimal designs (MODs) that might moderately satisfy two famous alphabetic design optimality criteria, G- and IV-optimality criteria using a GA which considers a certain amount of randomness. The minimum, average and maximum scaled prediction variances for the generated response surface designs are provided. Based on the average and maximum scaled prediction variances for k = 3, 4 and 5 design variables, the MODs from a genetic algorithm (GA) have better statistical property than does the theoretically optimal designs and the MODs are more flexible and useful than single-criterion optimal designs.

• 인터넷정보학회논문지
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.9-17
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• 2011

본 논문은 유비쿼터스 홈 네트워크 시스템에서 저장된 사용자 행동 프로파일 데이터에 은닉 마르코프 모델에 적용하여 사용자의 행동 상태를 예측하는 알고리즘을 제안한다. 은닉 마르코프 모델은, 순차 데이터를 갖는 패턴을 인식하기 위해서 데이터에 내포되어 있는 시간성을 적절히 표현하고, 그것으로부터 원하는 정보를 추론할 수 있는 대표적인 모델이다. 제안 알고리즘에서는 "행동 인지 시스템(Activity Recognition System)"에 의하여 저장된 행동 발생 횟수, 행동 지속시간, 행동이 발생된 위치 데이터를 학습 데이터로 이용하였다. 사용자의 행동에 가중치를 부여하여 사용자의 행동에 대한 흥미를 객관적으로 수식화 하는 방법을 제안하였으며 은닉 마르코프 모델을 이용하여 시간에 따른 가중치 변화를 구하여 사용자의 행동 상태 변화를 예측하였다. 제안 알고리즘은 현실적인 유비쿼터스 홈 네트워크 구축에 도움을 준다.