• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제13권5호
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• pp.1841-1851
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• 2018

For the safe and stable operation of the power system, accurate wind power prediction is of great significance. A wind power prediction method based on empirical mode decomposition and improved extreme learning machine is proposed in this paper. Firstly, wind power time series is decomposed into several components with different frequency by empirical mode decomposition, which can reduce the non-stationary of time series. The components after decomposing remove the long correlation and promote the different local characteristics of original wind power time series. Secondly, an improved extreme learning machine prediction model is introduced to overcome the sample data updating disadvantages of standard extreme learning machine. Different improved extreme learning machine prediction model of each component is established. Finally, the prediction value of each component is superimposed to obtain the final result. Compared with other prediction models, the simulation results demonstrate that the proposed prediction method has better prediction accuracy for wind power.

• 한국연초학회지
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.95-101
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• 1999

This study was carried out to analyze chemical components in burley tobacco using near infrared spectroscopy(NIRS). Samples were collected in '96 and '97 crop year. Calibration equations were developed by modified partial least square. The standard error performance(SEP) of '96 crop year samples between NIRS and standard laboratory analysis were 0.25% for nicotine, 0.18% for total nitrogen, 0.59% for crude ash, 0.32% for ether extracts, and 0.14% for chlorine, respectively. The analytical results of '97 crop year samples were similar to those of '96 crop year samples. The analytical result of '97 crop year samples analyzed by '96 calibration equation was more inaccurate than that of '96 crop year samples. The SEP of '96 or '97 crop year samples applying calibration equation derived from '96 plus '97 crop year samples was similar to that of '96 or '97 crop year samples analyzed by '96 or '97 calibration equation, respectively. The SEP of '97 crop year samples analyzed by calibration equation derived from '96 plus '97 crop year samples was more accurate than that of '97 crop year samples analyzed by '96 calibration equation. To improve the analytical inaccuracy caused by the difference of crop year between calibration and prediction samples, we need to include the prediction sample spectra which were different from calibration sample spectra in recalibration sample spectra, and then develop recalibration equation. The NIRS can apply to analyze burley leaf tobacco, leaf process or tobacco manufacturing process which were required the rapid analytical result.

• Coupled systems mechanics
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.133-149
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• 2022

The accurate prediction of elastoplasticity under prescribed workloads is essential in the optimization of engineering structures. Mechanical experiments are carried out with the goal of obtaining reliable sets of material parameters for a chosen constitutive law via inverse identification. In this work, two sample geometries made of high strength steel plates were evaluated to determine the optimal configuration for the identification of Ludwik's nonlinear isotropic hardening law. Finite element model updating(FEMU) was used to calibrate the material parameters. FEMU computes the parameter changes based on the Hessian matrix, and the sensitivity fields that report changes of computed fields with respect to material parameter changes. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the influence of the sample geometry on parameter identifiability. It was concluded that the sample with thinned gauge region with a large curvature radius provided more reliable material parameters.

• 전기전자학회논문지
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.494-499
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• 2022

본 논문에서는 인간의 피부섬유모세포(Human dermal fibroblasts)로부터 확보한 전사체 정보를 활용하여 나이를 예측하는 방법을 소개한다. 제안 방법에서는 훈련을 통해 확보한 분류기 및 회귀 모델을 이용하여 샘플이 속한 적합한 연령 그룹을 선택한 후, 선택된 연령 그룹에 속하는 훈련 데이터의 관측값을 활용하여 구체적인 연령을 예측한다. 연령을 예측하려는 샘플이 입력되면 복수 개의 판별 규칙이 순서대로 실행되는데, 개별 판별 규칙에서는 분류기와 회귀 모델을 동시에 실행하여 해당 판별 규칙에 대한 선택조건이 만족되는지 여부를 확인한다. 선택 조건이 만족될 경우 판별 규칙의 타겟 연령 그룹에 속하는 데이터를 이용하여 훈련된 회귀 모델로 연령을 예측하며, 선택 조건이 만족되지 않으면 후속 판별 규칙을 실행한다. 공개 데이터에 대하여 실험한 결과 기존 연구에서 달성한 7.7년의 평균 예측 오차보다 우수한 5.7년이라는 평균 예측 오차를 달성함을 확인하였다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 4th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management Organized by the University of New South Wales
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• pp.432-438
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• 2011

The purpose of the present thesis is to develop bankruptcy prediction models capable of being applied to the Korean construction industry and to deduce an optimal model through comparative evaluation of final developed models. A study population was selected as general contractors in the Korean construction industry. In order to ease the sample securing and reliability of data, it was limited to general contractors receiving external audit from the government. The study samples are divided into a bankrupt company group and a non-bankrupt company group. The bankruptcy, insolvency, declaration of insolvency, workout and corporate reorganization were used as selection criteria of a bankrupt company. A company that is not included in the selection criteria of the bankrupt company group was selected as a non-bankrupt company. Accordingly, the study sample is composed of a total of 112 samples and is composed of 48 bankrupt companies and 64 non-bankrupt companies. A financial ratio was used as early predictors for development of an estimation model. A total of 90 financial ratios were used and were divided into growth, profitability, productivity and added value. The MDA (Multivariate Discriminant Analysis) model and BLRA (Binary Logistic Regression Analysis) model were used for development of bankruptcy prediction models. The MDA model is an analysis method often used in the past bankruptcy prediction literature, and the BLRA is an analysis method capable of avoiding equal variance assumption. The stepwise (MDA) and forward stepwise method (BLRA) were used for selection of predictor variables in case of model construction. Twenty two variables were finally used in MDA and BLRA models according to timing of bankruptcy. The ROC-Curve Analysis and Classification Analysis were used for analysis of prediction performance of estimation models. The correct classification rate of an individual bankruptcy prediction model is as follows: 1) one year ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 83.04%, BLRA: 93.75%); 2) two years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 77.68%, BLRA: 78.57%); 3) 3 years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 84.82%, BLRA: 91.96%). The AUC (Area Under Curve) of an individual bankruptcy prediction model is as follows. : 1) one year ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 0.933, BLRA: 0.978); 2) two years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 0.852, BLRA: 0.875); 3) 3 years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 0.938, BLRA: 0.975). As a result of the present research, accuracy of the BLRA model is higher than the MDA model and its prediction performance is improved.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제19권8호
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• pp.71-76
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• 2002

In this study low cycle fatigue (LCF) behavior of 12Cr steel at high temperature are described. Secondly, comparisons between predicted lives and experimental lives are made for the several sample life prediction models. Two minute hold period in either tension or compression reduce the number of cycles to failure by about a factor of two. Twenty minute hold periods in compression lead to shorter lives than 2 minute hold periods in compression. Experiments showed that life predictions from classical phenomenological models have limitations. More LCF experiments should be pursued to gain understanding of the physical damage mechanisms and to allow the development of physically-based models which can enhance the accuracy of the predictions of components. From a design point-of-view, life prediction has been judged acceptable for these particular loading conditions but extrapolations to thermo-mechanical fatigue loading, for example, require more sophisticated models including physical damage mechanisms.

• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국데이터정보과학회 2004년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.111-111
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• 2004

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권4호
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• pp.1439-1448
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• 2022

Background: We investigated the feasibility of in vitro radiosensitivity prediction with gene expression using deep learning. Methods: A microarray gene expression of the National Cancer Institute-60 (NCI-60) panel was acquired from the Gene Expression Omnibus. The clonogenic surviving fractions at an absorbed dose of 2 Gy (SF2) from previous publications were used to measure in vitro radiosensitivity. The radiosensitivity prediction model was based on the convolutional neural network. The 6-fold cross-validation (CV) was applied to train and validate the model. Then, the leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) was applied by using the large-errored samples as a validation set, to determine whether the error was from the high bias of the folded CV. The criteria for correct prediction were defined as an absolute error<0.01 or a relative error<10%. Results: Of the 174 triplicated samples of NCI-60, 171 samples were correctly predicted with the folded CV. Through an additional LOOCV, one more sample was correctly predicted, representing a prediction accuracy of 98.85% (172 out of 174 samples). The average relative error and absolute errors of 172 correctly predicted samples were 1.351±1.875% and 0.00596±0.00638, respectively. Conclusion: We demonstrated the feasibility of a deep learning-based in vitro radiosensitivity prediction using gene expression.

• The Korean Journal of Ecology
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.435-438
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• 2000

Diameter distributions describe forest stand structure information. Prediction equations for percentiles of diameter distribution and parameter recovery procedures for the Weibull distribution function based on four percentile equations were applied to develop prediction system of even-aged slash pine stand structure development in terms of the number of stems per diameter class changes. Four percentiles of the cumulative diameter distribution were predicted as a function of stand characteristics. The predicted diameter distributions were tested against the observed diameter distributions using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov two sample test at the ${\alpha}$=0.05 level. Statistically, no significant differences were detected based on the data from 236 evaluation data sets. This stand level diameter distribution prediction system will be useful in slash pine stand structure modeling and in updating forest inventories for the long-term forest management planning.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.337-343
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• 2003

In this paper we present the prediction interval estimation method using bootstrap method for least squares support vector machine(LS-SVM) regression, which allows us to perform even nonlinear regression by constructing a linear regression function in a high dimensional feature space. The bootstrap method is applied to generate the bootstrap sample for estimation of the covariance of the regression parameters consisting of the optimal bias and Lagrange multipliers. Experimental results are then presented which indicate the performance of this algorithm.