• Title/Summary/Keyword: Generation Prediction

Search Result 803, Processing Time 0.02 seconds

Predicting Power Generation Patterns Using the Wind Power Data (풍력 데이터를 이용한 발전 패턴 예측)

  • Suh, Dong-Hyok;Kim, Kyu-Ik;Kim, Kwang-Deuk;Ryu, Keun-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
    • /
    • v.16 no.11
    • /
    • pp.245-253
    • /
    • 2011
  • Due to the imprudent spending of the fossil fuels, the environment was contaminated seriously and the exhaustion problems of the fossil fuels loomed large. Therefore people become taking a great interest in alternative energy resources which can solve problems of fossil fuels. The wind power energy is one of the most interested energy in the new and renewable energy. However, the plants of wind power energy and the traditional power plants should be balanced between the power generation and the power consumption. Therefore, we need analysis and prediction to generate power efficiently using wind energy. In this paper, we have performed a research to predict power generation patterns using the wind power data. Prediction approaches of datamining area can be used for building a prediction model. The research steps are as follows: 1) we performed preprocessing to handle the missing values and anomalous data. And we extracted the characteristic vector data. 2) The representative patterns were found by the MIA(Mean Index Adequacy) measure and the SOM(Self-Organizing Feature Map) clustering approach using the normalized dataset. We assigned the class labels to each data. 3) We built a new predicting model about the wind power generation with classification approach. In this experiment, we built a forecasting model to predict wind power generation patterns using the decision tree.

Modbus TCP based Solar Power Plant Monitoring System using Raspberry Pi (라즈베리파이를 이용한 Modbus TCP 기반 태양광 발전소 모니터링 시스템)

  • Park, Jin-Hwan;Kim, Chang-Bok
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
    • /
    • v.24 no.6
    • /
    • pp.620-626
    • /
    • 2020
  • This research propose and simulate a solar power generation system monitoring system based on Modbus TCP communication using RaspberryPi, an IOT equipment, as a master and an inverter as a slave. In this model, various sensors are added to the RaspberryPi to add necessary information for monitoring solar power plants, and power generation prediction and monitoring information are transmitted to the smart phone through real-time power generation prediction. In addition, information that is continuously generated by the solar power plant is built on the server as big data, and a deep learning model for predicting power generation is trained and updated. As a result of the study, stable communication was possible based on Modbus TCP with the Raspberry Pi in the inverter, and real-time prediction was possible with the deep learning model learned in the Raspberry Pi. The server was able to train various deep learning models with big data, and it was confirmed that LSTM showed the best error with a learning error of 0.0069, a test error of 0.0075, and an RMSE of 0.0866. This model suggested that it is possible to implement a real-time monitoring system that is simpler, more convenient, and can predict the amount of power generation for inverters of various manufacturers.

Verification of the Validity of Moisture Transfer Model for Prediction of Indoor Moisture Generation Rate (실내 수증기 발생량 예측을 위한 습기 전달 모델의 검증에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Kweon;Kim, Eui-Jong;Choi, Won-Ki;Suh, Seung-Jik
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.41-47
    • /
    • 2006
  • Moisture in a building is one of the most important variables influencing building performance, human health, and comfort of indoor environment. However, there are still lacks in the knowledge of understanding the moisture problem well and controlling moisture. Accordingly, in order to provide the fundamental data to control moisture contents in the indoor air, this study was to predict moisture contents transferred through building envelopes and indoor moisture generation rate. Moisture transfer model was made by physical relations in each node, and the indoor moisture generation rate was gained by comparing the model with experimental analyses. From the study, we found out that moisture generation rate was critical and day-periodic, so that we predicted the indoor moisture content by substituting the constant value gained from the average in a day for the moisture generation rate.

Life Risk Assessment of Landslide Disaster Using Spatial Prediction Model (공간 예측 모델을 이용한 산사태 재해의 인명 위험평가)

  • Jang, Dong-Ho;Chung, C.F.
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
    • /
    • v.15 no.6
    • /
    • pp.373-383
    • /
    • 2006
  • The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

Prediction of Landfill Settlement Using Gas Generation Characteristics (매립장의 발생가스특성을 이용한 매립장 침하예측)

  • 안태봉;박대효;공인철
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.20 no.8
    • /
    • pp.29-39
    • /
    • 2004
  • The prediction of landfill settlement is very important for managing land properly, especially in small national land like Korea. It is difficult to express settlement using the consolidation theory because biochemical decomposition is main reason of settlement, and organic materials in landfill are decomposed far long time. In this study, LFG (Landfill Gas) generation characteristics are studied to find long-term settlement analysing model landfills. Two lysimeters are made; one is leachate recycled, and the other is not leachate recycled. The relationship between gas generation and settlement is analysed as a function of time. A mathematical gas generation model is suggested to predict long-term settlement due to biodegradation, and correction coefficient is recommended for long term settlement through model tests. The leachate recirculation system is more effective to accelerate landfill settlement. The appropriate coefficients of gas correction for non-recycled leachate model are 1.4 and 1.7 for recycled system from tests showing 22% of acceleration.

Design and Implementation of an Automatic Embedded Core Generation System Using Advanced Dynamic Branch Prediction (동적 분기 예측을 지원하는 임베디드 코어 자동 생성 시스템의 설계와 구현)

  • Lee, Hyun-Cheol;Hwang, Sun-Young
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
    • /
    • v.38B no.1
    • /
    • pp.10-17
    • /
    • 2013
  • This thesis proposes an automatic embedded core generator system that supports branch prediction. The proposed system includes a dynamic branch prediction module that enhances execution speed of target applications by inserting history/direction flags into BTAC(Branch Target Address Cache). Entries of BHT(Branch History Table) and BTAC are determined based on branch informations extracted by simulation. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed branch prediction module, ARM9TDMI core including a dynamic branch predictor was described in SMDL and generated. Experimental results show that as the number of entry rises, area increase up to 60% while application execution cycle and BTAC miss rate drop by an average of 1.7% and 9.6%, respectively.

Improvement of Long-term Creep Life Prediction Method of Gr. 91 steel for VHTR Pressure Vessel (초고온가스로 압력용기용 Gr. 91 강의 장시간 크리프 수명 예측 방법 개선)

  • Park, Jae-Young;Kim, Woo-Gon;EKAPUTRA, I.M.W.;Kim, Seon-Jin;Kim, Min-Hwan
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
    • /
    • v.10 no.1
    • /
    • pp.64-69
    • /
    • 2014
  • Gr. 91 steel is used for the major structural components of Generation-IV reactor systems, such as a very high temperature reactor(VHTR) and sodium-cooled fast reactor(SFR). Since these structures are designed for up to 60 years at elevated temperatures, the prediction of long-term creep life is important for a design application of Gr. 91 steel. In this study, a number of creep rupture data were collected through world-wide literature surveys, and using these data, the long-term creep life was predicted in terms of three methods: the single-C method in Larson-Miller(L-M) parameter, multi-C constant method in the L-M parameter, and a modified method("sinh" equation) in the L-M parameter. The results of the creep-life prediction were compared using the standard deviation of error value, respectively. Modified method proposed by the "sinh" equation revealed better agreement in creep life prediction than the single-C L-M method.

Design of Moving Object Pattern-based Distributed Prediction Framework in Real-World Road Networks (실세계 도로 네트워크 환경에서의 이동객체 패턴기반 분산 예측 프레임워크 설계)

  • Chung, Jaehwa
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
    • /
    • v.15 no.4
    • /
    • pp.527-532
    • /
    • 2014
  • Recently, due to the proliferation of mobile smart devices, the inovation of bigdata, which analyzes and processes massive data collected from various sensors implaned in smart devices, expands to LBSs. Many location prediction techniques for moving objects have been studied in literature. However, as the majority of studies perform location prediction which depends on specific applications, they hardly reflect the technical requirements of next-generation spatio-temporal information services. Therefore, this paper proposes the design of general-purpose distributed moving object prediction query processing framework that is capable of performing primitive and various types of queries effectively based on massive spatio-temporal data of moving objects in real-world space networks.

Influencing factors and prediction of carbon dioxide emissions using factor analysis and optimized least squares support vector machine

  • Wei, Siwei;Wang, Ting;Li, Yanbin
    • Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.22 no.2
    • /
    • pp.175-185
    • /
    • 2017
  • As the energy and environmental problems are increasingly severe, researches about carbon dioxide emissions has aroused widespread concern. The accurate prediction of carbon dioxide emissions is essential for carbon emissions controlling. In this paper, we analyze the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and influencing factors in a comprehensive way through correlation analysis and regression analysis, achieving the effective screening of key factors from 16 preliminary selected factors including GDP, total population, total energy consumption, power generation, steel production coal consumption, private owned automobile quantity, etc. Then fruit fly algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of least squares support vector machine. And the optimized model is used for prediction, overcoming the blindness of parameter selection in least squares support vector machine and maximizing the training speed and global searching ability accordingly. The results show that the prediction accuracy of carbon dioxide emissions is improved effectively. Besides, we conclude economic and environmental policy implications on the basis of analysis and calculation.

Deep Learning Based Prediction Method of Long-term Photovoltaic Power Generation Using Meteorological and Seasonal Information (기후 및 계절정보를 이용한 딥러닝 기반의 장기간 태양광 발전량 예측 기법)

  • Lee, Donghun;Kim, Kwanho
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-16
    • /
    • 2019
  • Recently, since responding to meteorological changes depending on increasing greenhouse gas and electricity demand, the importance prediction of photovoltaic power (PV) is rapidly increasing. In particular, the prediction of PV power generation may help to determine a reasonable price of electricity, and solve the problem addressed such as a system stability and electricity production balance. However, since the dynamic changes of meteorological values such as solar radiation, cloudiness, and temperature, and seasonal changes, the accurate long-term PV power prediction is significantly challenging. Therefore, in this paper, we propose PV power prediction model based on deep learning that can be improved the PV power prediction performance by learning to use meteorological and seasonal information. We evaluate the performances using the proposed model compared to seasonal ARIMA (S-ARIMA) model, which is one of the typical time series methods, and ANN model, which is one hidden layer. As the experiment results using real-world dataset, the proposed model shows the best performance. It means that the proposed model shows positive impact on improving the PV power forecast performance.