• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.193-203
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• 2016

The importance of forecasting agricultural production is receiving attention while climate change is accelerating. This study suggested three types of crop yield forecasting model for major vegetable crops by using downscaled meteorological information of main production area on farmland level, which identified as limitation from previous studies. First, this study conducted correlation analysis with seven types of farm level downscaled meteorological informations and reported crop yield of main production area. After, we selected three types of meteorological factors which showed the highest relation with each crop species and regions. Parameters were deducted from meterological factor with high correlation but crop species number was neglected. After, crop yield of each crops was estimated by using the three suggested types of models. Chinese cabbage showed high accuracy in overall, while the accuracy of daikon and onion was quiet revised by neglecting the outlier. Chili and garlic showed differences by region, but Kyungbuk chili and Chungnam, Kyungsang garlic appeared significant accuracy. We also selected key meteorological factor of each crops which has the highest relation with crop yield. If the factor had significant relation with the quantity, it explains better about the variations of key meteorological factor. This study will contribute to establishing the methodology of future studies by estimating the crop yield of different species by using farmland meterological information and relatively simplify multiple linear regression models.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2009.03a
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• pp.737-742
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• 2009

This research intends to clarify the engineering characteristics of compression index which plays the most important role in the calculation of consolidation settlement, based on the survey of the clay in the estuary of Nakdong River. In addition, it will analyze the parameters of soil and the correlation between the parameters and the existing relation, especially the correlation with compression index, through which it will propose a proper relation for the parameters of clay in this area. As a result of the study, the relation between the settlement and the compression rate using compression index showed 13% settlement error on the average. It is judged that this number can be used for forecasting the consolidation characteristics and the settlement for brief (preliminary) design when the difference between the execution settlement and the measuring settlement is regarded to be 15%.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.9-16
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• 2014

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model for forecasting early design construction cost of building projects using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Eighty questionnaires distributed among construction organizations were utilized to identify significant parameters for the building project costs. 169 case studies of building projects were collected from the construction industry in Gaza Strip. The case studies were used to develop ANN model. Eleven significant parameters were considered as independent input variables affected on "project cost". The neural network model reasonably succeeded in estimating building projects cost without the need for more detailed drawings. The average percentage error of tested dataset for the adapted model was largely acceptable (less than 6%). Sensitivity analysis showed that the area of typical floor and number of floors are the most influential parameters in building cost.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.38 no.12 s.161
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• pp.1061-1072
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• 2005

A hydrological grey model is developed to forecast short-term river runoff from the Naju watershed located at upstream of the Youngsan estuary dam in Korea. The runoff of the Naju watershed is measured in real time at the Naju streamflow gauge station, which is a key station for forecasting the upstream inflow and operating the gates of the estuary dam in flood period. The model's governing equation is formulated on the basis of the grey system theory. The model parameters are reparameterized in combination with the grey system parameters and estimated with the annealing-simplex method In conjunction with an objective function, HMLE. To forecast accurately runoff, the fifth order differential equation was adopted as the governing equation of the model in consideration of the statistic values between the observed and forecast runoff. In calibration, RMSE values between the observed and simulated runoff of two and six Hours ahead using the model range from 3.1 to 290.5 $m^{3}/s,\;R^2$ values range from 0.909 to 0.999. In verification, RMSE values range from 26.4 to 147.4 $m^{3}/s,\;R^2$ values range from 0.940 to 0.998, compared to the observed data. In forecasting runoff in real time, the relative error values with lead-time and river stage range from -23.4 to $14.3\%$ and increase as the lead time increases. The results in this study demonstrate that the proposed model can reasonably and efficiently forecast runoff for one to six Hours ahead.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.81-88
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• 2018

The rainfall-runoff model made of sewer networks in the urban area is vast and complex, making it unsuitable for real-time urban flood forecasting. Therefore, the rainfall-runoff model is constructed and simplified using the sewer network of Daerim baisn. The network simplification process was composed of 5 steps based on cumulative drainage area and all parameters of SWMM were calculated using weighted area. Also, in order to estimate the optimal simplification range of the sewage network, runoff and flood analysis was carried out by 5 simplification ranges. As a result, the number of nodes, conduits and the simulation time were constantly reduced to 50~90% according to the simplification ranges. The runoff results of simplified models show the same result before the simplification. In the 2D flood analysis, as the simplification range increases by cumulative drainage area, the number of overflow nodes significantly decreased and the positions were changed, but similar flooding pattern was appeared. However, in the case of more than 6 ha cumulative drainage area, some inundation areas could not be occurred because of deleted nodes from upstream. As a result of comparing flood area and flood depth, it was analyzed that the flood result based on simplification range of 1 ha cumulative drainage area is most similar to the analysis result before simplification. It is expected that this study can be used as reliable data suitable for real-time urban flood forecasting by simplifying sewer network considering SWMM parameters.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.507-517
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• 2020

This study aims to present new frequency-related seismic intensity parameters (SIPs) based on the Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) analysis. The proposed procedure is utilized for the processing of several seismic accelerograms. Thus, the entire evaluated Hilbert Spectrum (HS) of each considered seismic velocity time-history is investigated first, and then, a delimited area of the same HS around a specific frequency is explored, for the proposition of new SIPs. A first application of the suggested new parameters is to reveal the interrelation between them and the structural damage of a reinforced concrete frame structure. The index of Park and Ang describes the structural damage. The fundamental frequency of the structure is considered as the mentioned specific frequency. Two statistical methods, namely correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis, are used to identify the relationship between the considered SIPs and the corresponding structural damage. The results confirm that the new proposed HHT-based parameters are effective descriptors of the seismic damage potential and helpful tools for forecasting the seismic damages on buildings.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.795-805
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• 1997

In this paper, we consider a Bayesian forecasting method for the analysis of repeated surveys. It is assumed that the parameters of the superpopulation model at each time follow a stochastic model. We propose Bayesian prediction procedures for the finite population total under dynamic generalized linear models. Some numerical studies are provided to illustrate the behavior of the proposed predictors.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.343-358
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• 2006

The distributional properties of forecasts in an integer-valued time series model have not been discovered yet mainly because of the complexity arising from the binomial thinning operator. We propose two bootstrap methods to obtain nonparametric prediction intervals for an integer-valued autoregressive model : one accommodates the variation of estimating parameters and the other does not. Contrary to the results of the continuous ARMA model, we show that the latter is better than the former in forecasting the future values of the integer-valued autoregressive model.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.295-304
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• 2005

This paper concentrates on the prediction of typhoon tracks using the dynamic linear model (DLM) for the statistical correction of the numerical model guidance used in the JMA. The DLM with proposed forecast strategy is applied to reduce their systematic errors using the latest observation. All parameters of the DLM are updated dynamically and backward forecasting is performed to remove the effect of initial values.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.52 no.4
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• pp.133-144
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• 2019

We develop forecast models of daily probabilities of major flares (M- and X-class) based on empirical relationships between photospheric magnetic parameters and daily flaring rates from May 2010 to April 2018. In this study, we consider ten magnetic parameters characterizing size, distribution, and non-potentiality of vector magnetic fields from Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray flare data. The magnetic parameters are classified into three types: the total unsigned parameters, the total signed parameters, and the mean parameters. We divide the data into two sets chronologically: 70% for training and 30% for testing. The empirical relationships between the parameters and flaring rates are used to predict flare occurrence probabilities for a given magnetic parameter value. Major results of this study are as follows. First, major flare occurrence rates are well correlated with ten parameters having correlation coefficients above 0.85. Second, logarithmic values of flaring rates are well approximated by linear equations. Third, using total unsigned and signed parameters achieved better performance for predicting flares than the mean parameters in terms of verification measures of probabilistic and converted binary forecasts. We conclude that the total quantity of non-potentiality of magnetic fields is crucial for flare forecasting among the magnetic parameters considered in this study. When this model is applied for operational use, it can be used using the data of 21:00 TAI with a slight underestimation of 2-6.3%.