• 제목/요약/키워드: Failure rate prediction

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A Study on the Failure Rate Prediction and Demonstraion for the Train Control system (열차제어시스템 고장률예측 및 입증에 관한 연구)

  • Shin Ducko;Lee Jae-Ho;Lee Jun-Ho;Lee Kang-Mi
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.77-81
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    • 2005
  • 본 논문은 열차제어시스템의 고장률을 정량적으로 예측하고 입증하기 위한 방안을 제시한다. 고장률의 정량적 예측은 시스템 개발단계에서 하부시스템별 고장발생확률을 예측하여 목표 고장률과 비교하고, 고장률이 높은 하부시스템의 설계를 보완하기 위함이다. 시제품이 완성된 후에는 예측된 고장률의 입증을 위해 시운전을 통한 고장데이터를 분석하거나 신뢰성시험을 통해 고장률의 예측치를 입증한다. 본 논문에서 제시하는 열차제어시스템 고장률예측과 입증은 철도신호시스템 신뢰성, 가용성, 유지보수성, 안전성관련 규격인 IEC62278의 시스템 수명주기별 신뢰성활동을 근거로 하며, 전자부품으로 구성된 시스템고장률예측은 미국방부 전자부품 고장률예측 지침인 MIL-HDBK-217을 기준으로 사용하였다.

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Numerical prediction for the performance of a floating-type breakwater by using a two-dimensional particle method

  • Lee, Byung-Hyuk;Hwang, Sung-Chul;Nam, Jung-Woo;Park, Jong-Chun
    • International Journal of Ocean System Engineering
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2011
  • The nonlinear free-surface motions interacting with a floating body were investigated using the Moving Particle Semi-implicit (MPS) method proposed by Koshizuka and Oka [6] for incompressible flow. In the numerical method, more realistic Lagrangian moving particles were used for solving the flow field instead of the Eulerian approach with a grid system. Therefore, the convection terms and time derivatives in the Navier-Stokes equation can be calculated more directly, without any numerical diffusion, instabilities, or topological failure. The MPS method was applied to a numerical simulation of predicting the efficiency of floating-type breakwater interacting with waves.

A Study on the Dangerous Failure Rate Prediction of Point Machine for Railway Signalling Safety Critical System (안전필수철도신호 선로전환기 제어모듈의 위험측고장률예측에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Young-Soo;Lee, Jae-Ho;Shin, Duc-Ko
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2005.07b
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    • pp.1565-1567
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    • 2005
  • 본 논문은 듀얼듀플렉스구조로 설계된 한국형고속철도 열차제어시스템의 전자연동장치 선로전환기제어모듈에 대하여 안전성활동 체계에 따라 위험원을 도출하고 분석하여 선로전환기제어모듈에 대한 위험측고장률을 예측하였다. 시스템으로 인해 발생할 수 있는 리스크를 분석하여 리스크를 완화하기 위한 안전대책의 수준인 안전무결성레벨에서 제시하는 정량적인 기준을 만족하기 위한 위험측고장률예측을 선로전환기 제어모듈을 대상으로 연구하였다.

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ROSA/LSTF test and RELAP5 code analyses on PWR 1% vessel upper head small-break LOCA with accident management measure based on core exit temperature

  • Takeda, Takeshi
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.8
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    • pp.1412-1420
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    • 2018
  • An experiment was performed using the large-scale test facility (LSTF), which simulated a 1% vessel upper head small-break loss-of-coolant accident with an accident management (AM) measure under an assumption of total-failure of high-pressure injection (HPI) system in a pressurized water reactor (PWR). In the LSTF test, liquid level in the upper head affected break flow rate. Coolant was manually injected from the HPI system into cold legs as the AM measure when the maximum core exit temperature reached 623 K. The cladding surface temperature largely increased due to late and slow response of the core exit thermocouples. The AM measure was confirmed to be effective for the core cooling. The RELAP5/MOD3.3 code indicated insufficient prediction of primary coolant distribution. The author conducted uncertainty analysis for the LSTF test employing created phenomena identification and ranking table for each component. The author clarified that peak cladding temperature was largely dependent on the combination of multiple uncertain parameters within the defined uncertain ranges.

New method for dependence assessment in human reliability analysis based on linguistic hesitant fuzzy information

  • Zhang, Ling;Zhu, Yu-Jie;Hou, Lin-Xiu;Liu, Hu-Chen
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.11
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    • pp.3675-3684
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    • 2021
  • Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a proactive approach to model and evaluate human systematic errors, and has been extensively applied in various complicated systems. Dependence assessment among human errors plays a key role in the HRA, which relies heavily on the knowledge and experience of experts in real-world cases. Moreover, there are ofthen different types of uncertainty when experts use linguistic labels to evaluate the dependencies between human failure events. In this context, this paper aims to develop a new method based on linguistic hesitant fuzzy sets and the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP) technique to manage the dependence in HRA. This method handles the linguistic assessments given by experts according to the linguistic hesitant fuzzy sets, determines the weights of influential factors by an extended best-worst method, and confirms the degree of dependence between successive actions based on the THERP method. Finally, the effectiveness and practicality of the presented linguistic hesitant fuzzy THERP method are demonstrated through an empirical healthcare dependence analysis.

Crack propagation in flexural fatigue of concrete using rheological-dynamical theory

  • Pancic, Aleksandar;Milasinovic, Dragan D.;Goles, Danica
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2021
  • The concrete fatigue analysis can be performed with the use of fracture mechanics. The fracture mechanics defines the fatigue crack propagation as the relationship of crack growth rate and stress intensity factor. In contrast to metal, the application of fracture mechanics to concrete is more complicated and therefore many authors have introduced empirical expressions using Paris law. The topic of this paper is development of a new prediction of fatigue crack propagation for concrete using rheological-dynamical analogy (RDA) and finite element method (FEM) in the frame of linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM). The static and cyclic fatigue three-point bending tests on notched beams are considered. Verification of the proposed approach was performed on the test results taken from the literature. The comparison between the theoretical model and experimental results indicates that the model proposed in this paper is valid to predict the crack propagation in flexural fatigue of concrete.

Displacement transducer technique for bearing health monitoring (베어링 장해모니터링을 위한 변위트란스듀서 기술)

  • Kim, P.Y.
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 1986
  • This paper describes a new, effective method developed at the National Research Council Canada for rolling element bearing incipient failure detection. This method can detect not only outer race damage, previously published, but also inner race damage with a 100% detection rate based on a sample size of 32. The prediction of the exact angular location of the damage spot along the raceway is illustrated and experimental confirmation is presented. For the first time, a statically measurable parameter for inner and outer race damage is introduced as a means of verifying other techniques which do not offer absolute proof, but resort only to "overwhelming evidence". A brief comparison with other methods such as Shock Pulse Method, Kurtosis Analysis and High Frequency Resonance Technique is presented. A computerized automatic monitoring system utilizing the new method is described and experimental results are presented.presented.

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Study on prediction for a film success using text mining (텍스트 마이닝을 활용한 영화흥행 예측 연구)

  • Lee, Sanghun;Cho, Jangsik;Kang, Changwan;Choi, Seungbae
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.1259-1269
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    • 2015
  • Recently, big data is positioning as a keyword in the academic circles. And usefulness of big data is carried into government, a local public body and enterprise as well as academic circles. Also they are endeavoring to obtain useful information in big data. This research mainly deals with analyses of box office success or failure of films using text mining. For data, it used a portal site 'D' and film review data, grade point average and the number of screens gained from the Korean Film Commission. The purpose of this paper is to propose a model to predict whether a film is success or not using these data. As a result of analysis, the correct classification rate by the prediction model method proposed in this paper is obtained 95.74%.

Computed tomographic assessment of retrograde urohydropropulsion in male dogs and prediction of stone composition using Hounsfield unit in dogs and cats

  • Bruwier, Aurelie;Godart, Benjamin;Gatel, Laure;Leperlier, Dimitri;Bedu, Anne-Sophie
    • Journal of Veterinary Science
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.65.1-65.10
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    • 2022
  • Background: Persistent uroliths after a cystotomy in dogs are a common cause of surgical failure. Objectives: This study examined the following: the success rate of retrograde urohydropropulsion in male dogs using non-enhanced computed tomography (CT), whether the CT mean beam attenuation values in Hounsfield Units (mHU) measured in vivo could predict the urolithiasis composition and whether the selected reconstruction kernel may influence the measured mHU. Methods: All dogs and cats that presented with lower urinary tract uroliths and had a non-enhanced CT preceding surgery were included. In male dogs, CT was performed after retrograde urohydropropulsion to detect the remaining urethral calculi. The percentage and location of persistent calculi were recorded. The images were reconstructed using three kernels, from smooth to ultrasharp, and the calculi mHU were measured. Results: Sixty-five patients were included in the study. The success rate of retrograde urohydropropulsion in the 45 male dogs was 55.6% and 86.7% at the first and second attempts, respectively. The predominant components of the calculi were cystine (20), struvite (15), calcium oxalate (8), and urate (7). The convolution kernel influenced the mHU values (p < 0.05). The difference in mHU regarding the calculus composition was better assessed using the smoother kernel. A mHU greater than 1,000 HU was predictive of calcium oxalate calculi. Conclusions: Non-enhanced CT is useful for controlling the success of retrograde urohydropropulsion. The mHU could allow a prediction of the calculus composition, particularly for calcium oxalate, which may help determine the therapeutic strategy.

Reliability Improvement Method of the Electrical Door System for the Railway Vehicles (철도차량의 전기식 출입문 시스템의 신뢰도 개선 방안)

  • Yang, Yong Joon;Lee, Hi Sung
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2015
  • Electrical door system is one of the most essential items for the successful commercial operation of the railway vehicles. Nowadays, reliability values of electrical door system have a tendency to be included in technical requirements for design and manufacturing of rolling stocks. Manufacturer shall meet the reliability target values of electrical door system which is proposed by railway operator in procurement contract book. Railway operator shall approve the supplier's the reliability target values based on maintenance operation data. Railway operators are in the transition stage from the framework of maintenance interval based on time to the framework of maintenance interval based on distance. In this study, failure rates of the electrical door system currently used in railway vehicles are collected from maintenance field data. Failure rates are analyzed by using Minitab. Several kinds of plan for improving reliability are also suggested. It is necessary to keep studying on reliability prediction methodology, applying it in the field and implementing on improvement of reliability through feedback as well. Further, it will be useful for determining new maintenance policies or changing maintenance intervals for existing railway vehicles.