• 제목/요약/키워드: Expected Returns

검색결과 131건 처리시간 0.023초

불완전 정보 하에서 추가적인 제약조건들이 포트폴리오 선정 모형의 성과에 미치는 영향 : 한국 주식시장의 그룹주 사례들을 중심으로 (Effects of Additional Constraints on Performance of Portfolio Selection Models with Incomplete Information : Case Study of Group Stocks in the Korean Stock Market)

  • 박경찬;정종빈;김성문
    • 경영과학
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.15-33
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    • 2015
  • Under complete information, introducing additional constraints to a portfolio will have a negative impact on performance. However, real-life investments inevitably involve use of error-prone estimations, such as expected stock returns. In addition to the reality of incomplete data, investments of most Korean domestic equity funds are regulated externally by the government, as well as internally, resulting in limited maximum investment allocation to single stocks and risk free assets. This paper presents an investment framework, which takes such real-life situations into account, based on a newly developed portfolio selection model considering realistic constraints under incomplete information. Additionally, we examined the effects of additional constraints on portfolio's performance under incomplete information, taking the well-known Samsung and SK group stocks as performance benchmarks during the period beginning from the launch of each commercial fund, 2005 and 2007 respectively, up to 2013. The empirical study shows that an investment model, built under incomplete information with additional constraints, outperformed a model built without any constraints, and benchmarks, in terms of rate of return, standard deviation of returns, and Sharpe ratio.

사옥신축의 정보효과와 기업가치 결정요인에 대한 연구 (Information Effect of New Office Investments and Determinant of Firm Value)

  • 이진훤;이포상
    • 아태비즈니스연구
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.95-106
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - This study examines the information effect of the disclosure of new office investments on the Korean stock market and investigates determinant of performance of sample firms. Design/methodology/approach - The sample consists of companies listed on the Korean Exchange that announced investments in new office construction for eleven-years from January 2007 to December 2017. It analyzes excess return using event study methodology and studies the determinants of abnormal return with multiple regression analysis. Findings - We find that abnormal returns of the short and long window are positive on average and statistically significant. In particular, CAR of high growth subsample is a larger positive return than that of the low one both short and long window. Difference in abnormal returns by investment size is observed only in short time window. But there is not observed difference by cash holding level. Research implications or Originality - This finding is able to be added to the evidence of the theory of corporate value maximization academically. Moreover, it shows the possibility that building a new office can have a positive effect on corporate value. It is expected to help investors make decisions because it can provide useful information to market participants in practice.

미취학 아동의 사교육에 대한 경제적 부담감과 관련요인 분석 (Economic burden and its related determinants of private education among pre-school children)

  • 강이주
    • 한국생활과학회지
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.315-331
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to examine current situations about and factors related to expenditures of private education among pre-school children and to provide policy implications useful for future pre-school children education. The subjects of the study were parents of pre-school children under seven years of age, who lived in Seoul and Incheon area. The survey was conducted using parent questionnaire. The major findings of the study are: First, 86.8% of parents of pre-school children use private education and the average expenditure on it was 154, 446 won. Second, major factors determining their private education expenditure are educational level of parents, parents' job characteristics, household income, and region. Third, the most important reason for using private education among parents is to improve and excel in academic performance of their children. Forth, the higher the parents' expected returns from private education are, the higher the expenditure level of private education is. Fitth, the results of the logistic regressions showed that parents' attitudes toward private education was the most important factor in determining household economic burden associated with private education. The odds were 5 times greater for the parent group with strong desire for private education than for the parent group without it and 1.2 times greater for the parent group with high-expected returns from private education than the parent group without it. In conclusion, systematic, universal educational policies need to be developed to provide and support all the parents with pre-school children, given that their current economic burden is substantial. By providing such support, we can help parents focus on public education. This study examining current situations about and determining factors related to private education expenditures among pre-school children collected data limiting only Seoul and Inchoen area, therefore, future studies need to include data collected nationwide for generalizability of the findings. As well, development of more elaborated survey instruments and analytical methods would advance our understanding in the field.

Contract Choice and Pricing of IPOs

  • Cho, Sung-Il
    • 재무관리논총
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    • 제6권1호
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    • pp.289-312
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    • 2000
  • This paper proposes a pricing model for IPOs which can reconcile the average underpricing phenomenon with the expected wealth maximizing behaviors of market participants. Under the usual informational asymmetry, the optimal offer price for best efforts IPOs is derived as a function of the uncertainty about market's valuation, the expected return on proposed projects and the size of offerings relative to the firm's market value. Depending on these firm-specific characteristics, best efforts IPOs can be underpriced, fairly priced, or overpriced. Introducing the investment banker as an outside information producer, the model is extended to provide empirical implications for pricing and underwriting contract choice decisions which are consistent with the existing empirical evidences. The model predicts that the issuers with greater uncertainty about market's valuation choose best efforts contract over firm commitment contract and the dispersion of initial returns would be greater for best efforts IPOs than for firm commitment IPOs.

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고객만족모형의 기대 딜레마 : 확산과 기대불일치의 통합모형 (The Expectation Dilemma of Customer Satisfaction Model : A Unified Model of Expectancy Disconfirmation and Diffusion)

  • 박상준;김현철
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제28권2호
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    • pp.61-74
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    • 2003
  • Many firms try to enhance the customer satisfaction, because they believe that higher customer satisfaction leads to superior returns. According to expectancy disconfirmation model, consumers judge the satisfaction in comparison with their expectations about the product performance. If the performance is above the expectations, increase in satisfaction is expected. If the performance is below the expectations, decrease in satisfaction is expected. This explanation contradicts our beliefs that higher expectation leads to consumer's choices. To address the contradiction, this paper present a unified model which combines the expectancy disconfirmation model with the well-known diffusion model. The unified model shows that the expectation can increase the choices even if the expectation decreases the satisfaction.

가격보호 정책, 반품 정책과 물량할인 정책을 사용한 3단계 공급사슬의 협력방안 (Coordination Under Price Protection, Mid/End Life Returns, and Quantity Discount for a Three-Level Supply Chain)

  • 이창환
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제30권3호
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    • pp.17-39
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    • 2005
  • The coordination of a three-level supply chain consisting of a supplier, a retailer, and a discount outlet (DCO) is studied here. We assume that the product is sold in two consecutive periods a Normal Sales Period (NSP) and a subsequent Clearance Salvage Period (CSP). A benchmark case is studied Initially in which the supply chain is coordinated by a s1n91e agent. Thus, the supplier the retailer, and the discount outlet design a common system that allows centralized decision making about stocking quantities, markdown time schedules, and policies on disposing of leftovers to deliver the greatest possible expected supply chain profit. Next, we consider a decentralized supply chain. Here, decisions are made without coordination. The objective is to maximize an individual party's expected profits. The focus of the study is on the following questions: what factors make the coordination an effective approach for the supply chain? How do we coordinate the supply chain so as to maximize the supply chain Joint expected profit? These and other related study issues are explored in this paper.

우리나라 글로벌 기업의 실물옵션을 이용한 투자안 평가 실증연구 (An Empirical Study on the Investment Evaluation of Korean Global Companies Using a Real Option Valuation Model)

  • 정의종
    • 플랜트 저널
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    • 제8권3호
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    • pp.42-48
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    • 2012
  • 전통적 투자안 평가방법인 현금할인법(DCF:discounted cash flow) 모형의 투자안 평가는 경영자가 미래 사업환경의 변화에 능동적 대처를 할 수 없다는 가정이다. 그러나 현실에서는 투자를 수행하는 중에 새로운 정보가 유입되고 불확실성이 클 때 평가 시점에서 예측한 대로 시나리오가 이루어지기 어렵기 때문에 경영의 유연성을 고려하는 실물옵션 방법으로 평가함으로써 이런 난점들을 극복할 수 있다. 실물옵션에는 연기옵션, 단계적 투자옵션, 변경옵션, 포기옵션, 전환옵션 등이 있다. 따라서 사업 변동성이 클 경우 전통적인 DCF보다는 이러한 변동성이 갖는 가치를 적극 이용하여 평가하는 실물옵션 방법이 보다 바람직한 평가방법이라 할 수 있다.

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주가와 환율의 위험-수익 관계에 대한 연구 (Relation between Risk and Return in the Korean Stock Market and Foreign Exchange Market)

  • 박재곤;이필상
    • 재무관리연구
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.199-226
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    • 2009
  • 본 논문은 우리나라 주식시장과 외환시장의 기대 수익률과 조건부 변동성간의 시계열적 관계를 2요인 자본자산가격결정모형(two-factor ICAPM)을 이용하여 실증 분석하였다. 주가와 환율의 조건부 분산은 GARCH 모형과 비대칭성을 반영한 GJR(1993) 모형으로 추정하였으며, 주가와 환율과의 조건부 공분산은 Bollerslev(1990)의 일정 상관관계(CCC) 모형과 Engle(2002)의 동태적 조건부상관관계(DCC) 모형을 이용하여 추정하였다. 실증 분석모형은 MGARCH-M 모형을 사용하였으며, 추정방법은 준최우추정법(QMLE)을 사용하였다. 실증 분석결과 외환위기 이후에 주식시장의 기대 수익률은 주가의 분산에 대해, 그리고 환율과의 공분산에 대해 유의한 음(-)의 관계를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 외환시장에서 기대 수익률은 조건부 분산과 조건부 공분산에 대해 유의하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 조건부 분산의 추정에서는 GJR 모형이 GARCH 모형에 비해 더 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 DCC 모형이 CCC 모형에 비해 설명력이 더 높은 것으로 나타났다. 본 논문의 분석결과는 주식시장에서 환율 변동이 위험 요인으로 작용하고 있기 때문에 포트폴리오 구성이나 위험 관리 등에서 환율 변동을 고려할 필요가 있고, 변수들간의 상관관계는 시변하는 모형을 사용할 필요가 있음을 시사한다.

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주식수익률의 VaR와 ES 추정: GARCH 모형과 GPD를 이용한 방법을 중심으로 (Estimation of VaR and Expected Shortfall for Stock Returns)

  • 김지현;박화영
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.651-668
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    • 2010
  • 금융 포트폴리오의 두 위험측도인 VaR와 ES에 대한 여러 추정방법을 1일 후와 10일 후의 경우로 나누어 각각 비교하였다. 2008년 미국발 세계 금융위기 기간을 포함한 KOSPI 자료와 해외 5개국의 종합주가지수 자료를 이용하여 실증적으로 비교하였다. 손실 분포의 두터운 꼬리와 조건부 이분산성을 동시에 고려하는 방법을 중심으로 여러 방법을 추가적으로 고려하였고, 국내 자료에 어떤 방법이 적절하며 종합적인 성능은 어떤가를 살펴보았다.

주민참여형 수상태양광 발전사업에 대한 국민 선호도 분석: 선택실험법을 이용하여 (Analyzing Public Preference for Community-Based Floating Photovoltaic Projects: A Discrete Choice Experiment Approach)

  • 이혜리;우종률
    • Current Photovoltaic Research
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    • 제10권4호
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    • pp.121-132
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    • 2022
  • The need for floating photovoltaic is being emphasized to expand renewable energy but low residents' acceptance is a major obstacle to the deployment of floating photovoltaic. Using the discrete choice experiment, this study analyzed the preferences for community-based floating photovoltaic projects and proposed a method to increase the residents' acceptance of floating photovoltaic projects. The estimates of the marginal willingness to accept (MWTA) of the distance, the coverage ratio, the landscape, the project owner (public institution), and the project owner (large company) are -0.69%p/km, 0.13%p/%p, -0.57%p, -2.95%p, -1.73%p, respectively. According to the result of simulation analysis, the residents' acceptance is significantly higher when the project is operated by a public institution, with a choice probability of 58%, than when the project is operated by a private company, with a choice probability of 29%, 12% for a large and small company, respectively. In addition, as a result of the analysis of the expected returns, the results show that the closer the distance from the residence to the power plant, the higher the expected return.