• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimate life-time

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Estimation of Performance and Pavement Life using National Highway Pavement Condition Index (NHPCI 지표를 활용한 공용성 추정과 수명 산정)

  • Do, Myung-Sik;Lee, Yong-Jun;Lim, Kwang-Su;Kwon, Soo-Ahn
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2012
  • PURPOSES: The new methodology is proposed for estimation of long-term performance and pavement life based on the national highway database in Daejeon area. Furthermore, this study tried to verify the applicability of performance estimation using NHPCI (National Highway Pavement Condition Index) on tendency of pavement deterioration as time goes by under Korean road environments. METHODS: Reliability theories are applied to estimate the mean life and to determine the appropriate distribution using 3 levels of traffic loads (high, medium, low) based on maintenance and rehabilitation history data for 15 years. RESULTS: As a result, Lognormal distribution is suitable for explanation of pavement lifetime in Daejeon area regardless of traffic loads. In addition, we found that the results of mean life and maintenance timing based on NHPCI for the pavement sections of 3 levels of traffic loads are available. CONCLUSIONS: Based on this study, it was found that mean life of high, medium and low levels of traffic loads are about 8.1 years, 12.2 years and 12.7 years, respectively. Higher level of traffic loads shorten the pavement mean life.

Residual Life Assessment on Cast Iron Pipes of Water Distribution System (상수도관로중 주철관종의 잔존수명 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Dong;Bae, Chul-Ho;Hong, Seong-Ho;Hwang, Jae-Woon;Kwak, Phill-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.206-214
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    • 2004
  • Residual wall thicknesses, corrosion rates, and residual life of thirty four samples of cast iron pipes(CIPs) and ductile cast iron pipes(DCIPs) collected from water mains of B city were studied to estimate their remaining service life or optimum time of rehabilitation. The internal maximum corrosion depths of samples measured using a dial gauge after shot blasting were twice higher than the external in most cases. Therefore corrosion of water pipes was much more affected by internal water quality than soil. Residual wall thicknesses of DCIPs were higher than those of CIPs. That reason was thought to be that DCIPs have been protected from internal corrosion by lining cement mortar. Residual life calculated by maximum corrosion rate was ranged up to 44 years with 12.40 years average. Since most CIPs were much deteriorated, rehabilitation plan should be established soon in B city. Residual life of DCIP was 33.52 years average. When cement mortar lining is used up by neutralization of DCIPs. DCIP also should be rehabilitated.

A Mathematical model to estimate the wind power using three parameter Weibull distribution

  • Seshaiah, C.V.;Sukkiramathi, K.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.393-408
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    • 2016
  • Weibull distribution is a suitable distribution to use in modeling the life time data. It has been found to be a exact fit for the empirical distribution of the wind speed measurement samples. In brief this paper consist of important properties and characters of Weibull distribution. Also we discuss the application of Weibull distribution to wind speed measurements and derive an expression for the probability distribution of the power produced by a wind turbine at a fixed location, so that the modeling problem reduces to collecting data to estimate the three parameters of the Weibull distribution using Maximum likelihood Method.

Evaluation of Material Degradation Using Electrical Resistivity Method (전기비저항법을 이용한 재료열화 평가)

  • Kim, Jeong-Pyo;Bae, Bong-Kook;Kim, Dong-Joong;Seok, Chang-Sung
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2001.11a
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    • pp.129-136
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    • 2001
  • The remaining life estimation for the aged components in power plants as well as chemical plants are very important beacuse mechanical properties of the components are degraded with time of service exposure in high temperature. Since it is difficult to take specimens from the operating components to evaluate mechanical properties of components, nondestructive techniques are needed to estimate the degradation. In this study, test materials with 4 different degradation levels were prepared by isothermal aging heat treatment at $630^{\circ}C$. And the DC potential drop method and destructive methods such as tensile, $K_{IC}$ and hardness tests were used in order to evaluate the degradation of 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V steels. The objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of the application of DCPD method to estimate the material degradation, and to analyse the relationship between the electrical resistivity and the degree of material degradation.

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A Study on Hydraulic Drawdown Test Model and Experimental Estimation of Desorption Rate Ratios of Fuel Filters (유압 저하시험 모델과 자동차 연료필터의 토설율 측정 실험 연구)

  • 이재천;계중읍
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.20 no.9
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    • pp.205-213
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    • 2003
  • This study describes the mathematical equation of drawdown test model and introduces the experimental test apparatus and procedure to estimate the desorption rate ratio of a filter. The characteristics of a hydraulic filtration system of drawdown test were demonstrated by numerical simulation for various properties of filters and operation conditions. Experiments for three kinds of fuel filters were conducted according to the proposed test method. And the test results of desorption rate ratio were compared with those values anticipated in precedent multipass filtration tests. Experimental results revealed the validation of drawdown test method proposed in this study. Domestic fuel filter yielded high desorption rate ratio comparing with other foreign products, which means that the Beta ratio decreases a lot during the test. The results also showed that filtration system model could be developed including desorption rate ratio to estimate the variable Beta ratio in service life.

Reliability Estimation of Series-Parallel Systems Using Component Failure Data (부품의 고장자료를 이용하여 직병렬 시스템의 신뢰도를 추정하는 방법)

  • Kim, Kyung-Mee O.
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.214-222
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    • 2009
  • In the early design stage, system reliability must be estimated from life testing data at the component level. Previously, a point estimate of system reliability was obtained from the unbiased estimate of the component reliability after assuming that the number of failed components for a given time followed a binomial distribution. For deriving the confidence interval of system reliability, either the lognormal distribution or the normal approximation of the binomial distribution was assumed for the estimator of system reliability. In this paper, a new estimator is used for the component level reliability, which is biased but has a smaller mean square error than the previous one. We propose to use the beta distribution rather than the lognormal or approximated normal distribution for developing the confidence interval of the system reliability. A numerical example based on Monte Carlo simulation illustrates advantages of the proposed approach over the previous approach.

재생이론에 의한 헬리컬 기어장치의 신뢰성에 관한 연구

  • 김하수;강희용;양성모
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 1995.10a
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    • pp.799-802
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    • 1995
  • Whale helical gears is used to transmit motion between parallel shafts, the shaft bearings are subjected to both radial and thrust loads. The reliability and life analysis are based on the two-parameter Weibull disribution lives of the component gears and bearings. Two methods of estimating the time between gear system overhauls and the number of replacement components needed were presented. The first method assumes replacement of all components during an overhaul of a failed gear system. the second method assumes replacement of failed comonents only. Renewal theory was presented to estimate the number of comonent replacements in a gear system for both methods.

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Genetic Relationship between Ultrasonic and Carcass Measurements for Meat Qualities in Korean Steers

  • Lee, D.H.;Kim, H.C.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.7-12
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    • 2004
  • Real time ultrasonic measurements for 13th rib fat thickness (LBF), longissimus muscle area (LEMA) and marbling score (LMS) of live animal at pre-harvest and subsequent carcass measurements for fat thickness (BF), longissimus muscle area (EMA), marbling score (MS) as well as body weight of live animal, carcass weight (CW), dressing percentage (DP), and total merit index (TMI) on 755 Korean beef steers were analyzed to estimate genetic parameters. Data were analyzed using multivariate animal models with an EM-REML algorithm. Models included fixed effects for year-season of birth, location of birth, test station, age of dam, linear and quadratic covariates for age or body weight at slaughter and random animal and residual effects. The heritability estimates for LEMA, LBF and LMS on RTU scans were 0.17, 0.41 and 0.55 in the age-adjusted model (Model 1) and 0.20, 0.52 and 0.55 in the weight-adjusted model (Model 2), respectively. The Heritability estimates for subsequent traits on carcass measures were 0.20, 0.38 and 0.54 in Model 1 and 0.23, 0.46 and 0.55 in Model 2, respectively. Genetic correlation estimate between LEMA and EMA was 0.81 and 0.79 in Model 1 and Model 2, respectively. Genetic correlation estimate between LBF and BF were high as 0.97 in Model 1 and 0.98 in Model 2. Real time ultrasonic marbling score were highly genetically correlated to carcass MS of 0.89 in Model 1 and 0.92 in Model 2. These results indicate that RTU scans would be alterative to carcass measurement for genetic evaluation of meat quality in a designed progeny-testing program in Korean beef cattle.

Necessity of step-stress accelerated life testing experiment at higher steps

  • Chandra, N.;Khan, Mashroor Ahmad;Pandey, M.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.85-98
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    • 2014
  • Accelerated life testing (ALT) is a well famous technique in life testing and reliability studies, this is particularly used to induce so high stress leading to failure of the highly reliable units quickly under stipulated duration of time. The step-stress ALT is one of the systematic experimental strategy of ALT applied to fail the units in steps. In this article we focus on two important issues (i) necessity of life tests at higher steps with relevant causes (ii) to develop a new optimum test plan for 3-step SSALT under the modified cumulative exposure model proposed by Khamis and Higgins (1998). It is assumed that the lifetime of test units follows Rayleigh distribution and its scale parameter at constant stress level is assumed to be a log-linear function of the stress. The maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters involved in the step-stress ALT model are obtained. A simulation study is performed for numerical investigation of the proposed new optimum plan 3-step, step-stress ALT. The necessity of the life test units at 3-step step-stress is also numerically examined in comparison to simple step-stress setup.

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Development of feasible program of exchange period for chemical cartridge in the workplace (II) - Method of using odor threshold (작업장에서 사용 가능한 방독마스크 정화통 교체주기 프로그램의 개발(II) - 냄새 서한도(odor threshold)를 이용하는 방법)

  • Han, Don-Hee;Kang, Min-Sun;Yi, Gwang Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.102-112
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    • 2009
  • The greatest concern of vapor/gas respirators is when to exchange chemical cartridges, but it is very difficult to estimate the breakthrough time of them in the workplace spot due to so many factors influencing on breakthrough. There needs to study on estimating cartridge exchange period available practically in the spot, even if it is not precise. In the previous study, authors suggested the method on estimating service-life of chemical cartridges using cartridges discarded after use. This followed study was to estimate exchange period for chemical cartridges using comparison of concentrations between Korean Occupational Exposure Limits (KOELs) and odor thresholds of chemicals. Chemicals were divided into four groups, I, II, III and IV groups. Group I chemicals are relatively safe if cartridges are just or slightly delayed exchanged when smelling since odor thresholds were less than 0.5 times KOELs. Odor threshold of Group II chemicals are 0.5~2.0 times KOELs and potentially hazardous if cartridges are exchanged when smelling. Those chemicals should be conducted program on estimating service-life of cartridges, which was just previously published (J Kor Soc Occup Environ Hyg 2008;18(3) 204-215). Group III chemicals (odor thresholds are more than 2.0 times KOELs) and Group IV chemicals (odorless or no data for smelling) must be performed the above mentioned program before cartridges. Even if this method on cartridge exchange using odor threshold is practically widely used in the workplace spot in the present, program on estimating service-life of cartridges is recommended for all chemicals to reduce potentially hazards.