• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic Crisis

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A study on the prediction of korean NPL market return (한국 NPL시장 수익률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyeon Su;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.123-139
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    • 2019
  • The Korean NPL market was formed by the government and foreign capital shortly after the 1997 IMF crisis. However, this market is short-lived, as the bad debt has started to increase after the global financial crisis in 2009 due to the real economic recession. NPL has become a major investment in the market in recent years when the domestic capital market's investment capital began to enter the NPL market in earnest. Although the domestic NPL market has received considerable attention due to the overheating of the NPL market in recent years, research on the NPL market has been abrupt since the history of capital market investment in the domestic NPL market is short. In addition, decision-making through more scientific and systematic analysis is required due to the decline in profitability and the price fluctuation due to the fluctuation of the real estate business. In this study, we propose a prediction model that can determine the achievement of the benchmark yield by using the NPL market related data in accordance with the market demand. In order to build the model, we used Korean NPL data from December 2013 to December 2017 for about 4 years. The total number of things data was 2291. As independent variables, only the variables related to the dependent variable were selected for the 11 variables that indicate the characteristics of the real estate. In order to select the variables, one to one t-test and logistic regression stepwise and decision tree were performed. Seven independent variables (purchase year, SPC (Special Purpose Company), municipality, appraisal value, purchase cost, OPB (Outstanding Principle Balance), HP (Holding Period)). The dependent variable is a bivariate variable that indicates whether the benchmark rate is reached. This is because the accuracy of the model predicting the binomial variables is higher than the model predicting the continuous variables, and the accuracy of these models is directly related to the effectiveness of the model. In addition, in the case of a special purpose company, whether or not to purchase the property is the main concern. Therefore, whether or not to achieve a certain level of return is enough to make a decision. For the dependent variable, we constructed and compared the predictive model by calculating the dependent variable by adjusting the numerical value to ascertain whether 12%, which is the standard rate of return used in the industry, is a meaningful reference value. As a result, it was found that the hit ratio average of the predictive model constructed using the dependent variable calculated by the 12% standard rate of return was the best at 64.60%. In order to propose an optimal prediction model based on the determined dependent variables and 7 independent variables, we construct a prediction model by applying the five methodologies of discriminant analysis, logistic regression analysis, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model we tried to compare them. To do this, 10 sets of training data and testing data were extracted using 10 fold validation method. After building the model using this data, the hit ratio of each set was averaged and the performance was compared. As a result, the hit ratio average of prediction models constructed by using discriminant analysis, logistic regression model, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model were 64.40%, 65.12%, 63.54%, 67.40%, and 60.51%, respectively. It was confirmed that the model using the artificial neural network is the best. Through this study, it is proved that it is effective to utilize 7 independent variables and artificial neural network prediction model in the future NPL market. The proposed model predicts that the 12% return of new things will be achieved beforehand, which will help the special purpose companies make investment decisions. Furthermore, we anticipate that the NPL market will be liquidated as the transaction proceeds at an appropriate price.

A Case Study on the Lean Management Activity in Business-Services Industry (사무.서비스 산업의 린 경영 활동에 관한 사례 연구)

  • Lee, Kang-In;Lee, Soon-San
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.189-206
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    • 2012
  • It is urgently requested to innovate the management process of business-service areas in all industry such as financial business, services and manufacturing because of recent business trend - de-manufacturing trend and the weight increment of service in all industries. Many enterprises introduce various management - innovation methodologies in order to meet the rapidly changing business environment. Especially in Korea, it is a vogue to introduce the innovation methodology of the advanced company's. According to this style, the six sigma has been introduced over 10 years since late 1990's and it has become a synonym of innovation indeed. But the result of six sigma introduction has not reached to the level of expectation in its beginning. And the "Lean" have been introduced in Korea in the situation of global financial crisis, economic slump and the pursuit of developing country such as China. Many Korea companies pay attention to the "Lean" innovation activity because the TPS(Toyota Production System) is the matrix of Lean and is the motive power of Toyota growth. In this study, it was analyzed for the evolution course, distinctive features and effects of Lean management and was examined for the difference of Lean management between manufacturing industry and business-service areas. From this results, the characteristics of Lean management in business-service was analyzed. After survey of innovation agent in Korea company, the Lean model of business-service Industry was developed and applied. This study will be worthy to show the right direction to the enterprises which are to apply lean methodologies, or the enterprises which examine lean management for competitive advantages or the peoples who research the same topics.

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A comparison study of the characteristics of private and public security service of Koryo dynasty and modern security service (고려시대 공적·사적경호의 특성과 현대경호와의 비교연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Jin
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.36
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    • pp.417-442
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    • 2013
  • This study considers the characteristics of the separation of public and private security service during Koryo dynasty, and compares it with the modern security service. Modern day security service's definition of private and public security service was used to distinguish them. Given the different historical settings, it's difficult to argue that the distinction between public and private service during Koryo dynasty was clear, but it can be said that public security service was centered around palace guard and concerns the activities of protest, and military made for the relationship, and private security service was centered around power of DoBang and includes the activities of malingering, and Byolchogun. During the early days of Koryo, protest, district military and soldiers who stay in the palace were all parts of a palace revolt and this institutional improvement of soldiers who stay in the palace was accomplished during King Seongjong's rule. The tradition of a palace revolt can find its roots in the middle military, and after the unification, a palace revolt was reformed into the king's palace revolt of second and the 6th along the course of establishing the nation's system. All of the changes stem from the reformation for consolidating the royal authority. Gyung Dae Seoung wanted to protect himself and he slept with his army night and days and because of that, group of soldiers was created and it was called DOBANG. Some members were from dobang gyeonryong, The forced were powerful because it was gathered with a warriors with extraordinaire martial arts and competent management. Most of the soldiers followed gyeong dae seung because they believed that he has a strong leadership and loves his people, and had a strong faith in him. However, the general gyeong jang had a belief that politics must be reverted to the previous so the relationships between jungbang wasn't smooth. Because of the economic operational problems, due to fraud committed by the mens under his command failed to maintain integrity and was criticised.The misconception also fed up with the emperor and the deepening relationships between the soldiers, his dobang was dismantled. After he took over the dobang, for his personal safety and to strengthen his position he compensated gyeon dae seong's dobang and developed the organization. In the process of extending the dobang Choi chung heon recruited many talented people to strengthen the military base, and also accepted the advice and expanded the power of Dobang. Choi Chung Heon thus consolidated his political gains by weakening the power of the king's army and adjusting the myth, which could've threatened his regime, and this was called Dobang number 6th. Dobang number six got even more powerful by his son named Choi woo, and after ruling, he expanded into a room, and a substantial reorganization of Dobang was developed. And then the creation of yabyeolcho also showed the effect to prevent the crisis. Although the palace guards who were public security service of Koryo Dynasty was still maintained during the military rule era when the royal authority was incapacitated, it was only maintained to have a symbolic meaning as the actual authority including military power was with Choi, the master of Dobang, private security service group. Likewise, during the rule of Choi, private securty service could reign over public security service, and the noteworthy characteristic of Dobang is that it assisted the private soldier groups to seize the military power by reorganizing and modifying military system. Although both differences and similarities can be found when comparing the guards of Koryo Dynasty with those of contemporary society, they have a similarity in terms of the essence of guards that they guarantee the safety of their clients. As for differences, the royalty of Koryo Dynasty and the pursuit of profit of contemporary society are in contrast, and contemporary guards can be seen as the fulfillment of responsibility and duty by free will, whereas guards of Koryo Dynasty were ruled with military coercion.

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Fund Flow and Market Risk (펀드플로우와 시장위험)

  • Chung, Hyo-Youn;Park, Jong-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.169-204
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines the dynamic relationship between fund flow and market risk at the aggregate level and explores whether sudden sharp changes in fund flow (fund run) can cause a systemic risk in the Korean financial markets. We use daily and weekly data and regression and VAR analysis. Main results of the paper are as follows: First, in the stock market, a concurrent and a lagged unexpected fund flows have a positive relationship with market volatility. A positive shock in fund flow predicts an increase in stock market volatility. In the bond market, an unexpected fund flow has a negative relationship with the default risk premium, but a positive relationship with the term premium. And an unexpected fund flow of the money market fund has a negative relationship with the liquidy risk, but the explanatory power is very low. Second, for examining whether changes in fund flow induce a systemic risk, we construct a spillover index based on the forecast error variance decomposition of VAR model. A spillover index represents that how much the shock in fund flow can explain the change of market risk in a market. In general, explanatory powers from spillover indexes are so fluctuant and low. In the stock market, the impact of shocks in fund flow on market risk is relatively high and persistent during the period from the end of 2007 to 2008, which is the subprime-mortgage crisis period. In bond market, since the end of 2008, the impact of shocks in fund flow spreads to default risk continually, while in the money market, such a systematic effect doesn't take place. The persistent patterns of spillover effect appearing around a certain period in the stock market and the bond market suggest that the shock to the unexpected fund flow may increase the market risk and can be a cause of systemic risk in the financial markets. However, summarizing the results of regression and VAR model analysis, and considering the very low explanatory power of spillover index analysis, we can conclude that changes in fund flow have a very limited power in explaining changes in market risk and it is not very likely to induce the systemic risk by a fund run in the Korean financial markets.

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Effect a Presentation Product has on the Repurchase Action (증정상품이 소비자의 재구매행동에 미치는 영향)

  • Yun, Gi-Seon;Kim, Hong
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.193-224
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    • 2006
  • When we look into the market economy of our country recently, we learn that the mind of consumption after IMF crisis is very shrunk and the market is led into a serious slump of consumption. For an approach to survive the contraction of the market and the market competition, enterprises command a variety of sales promotion strategy, out of which presentation is a sales promotion strategy to give the same product. The price-discounted strategy through the provision of donation commodity may induce the temporarily-discounted commodity not to be sold to the consumers or make a damage of the images of the brand, or arouse the price war against other companies, or lower the sense of the quality of the commodity. Therefore, it is necessary for a company to meet the end users' demand and also maintain the evaluation of the quality on the consumers' products highly. Therefore, in this study, we have attempted to study and analyze the consumers' satisfaction level and reliability on the donation goods in order to suggest the orientation of the presentation promotion strategy in accordance with the changes of the sales market. In addition, we tried to understand how the recognition, consumers' satisfaction level and reliability on the presentation goods had on the repurchase. With such objectives in this study, we could make an analogy of the following significance and suggestion of study. Firstly, in order to survive a serious competition market, enterprises must execute the product presentation along with diverse events instead of commanding the sales promotion strategy through a simple product presentation. This strategy can be an alternative to lower the danger a person-to-person product presentation may bring about. That is to say, we shall not lower the quality and value of the products but enhance a new image to customers through a product donation occasion together with an event as a new marketing pioneering method. Secondly, during the period of the current economic depression, if a company provides the consumers with an opportunity free of charge through the present special event period and the practical events, it will affect the advertising effect of the goods, the introduction of the customers and customers' repurchase. For this purpose, the company has to heighten customers' preferences by selecting the items customers are liable to prefer and closely analyze the consumers' response and market for such an objective. Thirdly, with the internet age, as the market has a tendency to increase In the number of consumers who do shopping in the internet, the marketing strategy has to build up the strategy of the presentation product instead of a simple offline strategy. For example, a company shall have to draw attention or attraction from end users who intend to do shopping through the online by a product planning expo or a presentation product corner. Fourthly, the excessive sale promotion strategy of presentation products may bring about even a reverse effect on the value of the goods or consumers' attitude as seen above. Therefore, a company has to relay' the value as to the price' to the consumers instead of the sales promotion strategy of donation products just for a temporary sales volume. Conclusively, even if we put the value with a reasonable price through the presentation product strategy in the past, we shall have construct the strategy by providing some plus factors in the price such as the provision of the upgraded products or services instead of just presentation, or the invitation of the events related to diverse events or culture arts from now on.

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A Case Study of Artist-centered Art Fair for Popularizing Art Market (미술 대중화를 위한 작가중심형 아트페어 사례 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Young;Yi, Eni-Shin
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.279-292
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    • 2018
  • Unlike the global art market which experienced rapid recovery from the impacts of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, the Korean art market has not yet fully recovered. The gallery-oriented distribution system, vulnerable primary art market functions, and the market structure centered on a small number of collectors make it difficult for young and medium artists to enter the market and, as a result, deepen the economic polarization of artists. In addition, the high price of art works limits market participation by restricting the general public. This study began with the idea that the interest of the public in the art market as well as their participation in the market are urgent. To this end, we noted that public awareness of art transactions can be a starting point for improving the constitution of the fragile art market, focusing on the 'Artist-centered Art Fair' rather than existing art fairs. To examine the contribution of such an art fair to the popularization of the art market, we analyzed the case of the 'Visual Artist Market (VAM)' project of the Korea Arts Management Service. Results found that the 'Artist-centered Art Fair' focuses on providing opportunities for market entry to young and medium artists rather than on the interests of distributors, and promotes the popularization of the art market by promoting low-priced works to the general public. Also, the 'Artist-centered Art Fair' seems to play a primary role in the public sector to foster solid groups of artists as well as to establish healty distribution networks of Korean Art market. However, in the long run, it is necessary to promote sustainable development of the 'Artist-centered Art Fair' through indirect support, such as the provision of a publicity platform or consumer finance support, rather than direct support.

The Strategic Approach to FTA Governmental Negotiation Method between China (중국과의 FTA 협상방식을 위한 전략적 접근)

  • Na, Seung-Hwa
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2010
  • Since Korea establish diplomatic ties with China in 1992, korea and China have had rapid progress in most of field as politic, economy, society and culture through basing on cultural commonality and geographical adjacency. Especially, China is the biggest trading partner to korea, and also Korea is third-biggest trading country to China. They become strategic cooperating relation in 2008. Currently, in terms of international trade relation, WTO/DDA negotiation is proceeding in difficulty, but FTA has been growing and extending in the world, and the two country, china and korea, have been competitively trying wide and active FTA negotiation promotion. After Financial crisis in 1997, according to the requirement of local economic cooperation, China has shown the interest to several countries since the conclusion of FTA treaty with ASEAN in 2005. China also makes the active afford to conclude FTA with Korea. Last May 28th, this was mentioned in the meeting between president Lee and Premier Wen Jiabao, so it is anticipated that the negotiation for FTA will be started in the near future. There are many political suggestions and concerns in terms of way of negotiation korea would choose. Some economist said that "'Continuous FTA aimed at long-term protocol should be promoted between korea and China and negotiated includingly'" However, this research claims that commodity exchange, service, and investment areas should be included and it has to be comprehensive package settlement style in negotiation. This research has found out the characteristics of China's negotiation and implications through the China's existed FTA negotiation examples. Currently, China has taken Continuous or a phase-negotiation method to ASEAN, Pakistan, Chile and some other developing country and to advanced countries like New Zealand or Singapore, comprehensive package settlement method is used in FTA negotiation. In consider of the FTA negotiation between Korea and China, Korea has some problems in the commodity change area in agriculture maket's opening. While, for china, the issues would happen in service trade area, especially when encountering finance and communication industries are opened, China's economy could be exposed to some risk. In result, Korea should expand its negotiation range from commodity trade to service trade, in order to exchange both issues, then the negotiation will be concluded more easily. In other word, for FTA, korea should follow comprehensive package settlement way that is similar to New zealand and Singapore case. Through this kind of method, Korea can expect effect of creating trade, conversion of it and preoccupancy of service field in china's market against the advanced countries like Usa, Europe and Japan. Also, to have a successful FTA negotiation, korea should find out china's policy for FTA negotiation. With this information, korea will be able to suggest the way to make a profit. Systematic analysis and comparison about previous negotiation cases of china are needed before the negotiation begin.

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The Effects of BizCool of Vocational High School on the Understanding of Enterprise Commencement and BizCool Outcomes (전문계 고교 창업교육(BizCool)이 창업인식 및 창업교육성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Cheon, Soo-Kyung;Jung, Hwa-Young
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.89-114
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    • 2009
  • BizCool is an entry-level business education program implemented with a purpose of enhancing the entrepreneurial disposition and capability of the youth through enterprise commencement education of vocational high school students and developing them into economic pillars of future to alleviate the labor shortage crisis of small and medium enterprises and revitalize enterprise commencement. In this study, the factors were deduced and a path analysis was conducted with the purpose of proposing a revitalization plan through an effectiveness analysis of enterprise commencement education for the youth. The result of the analysis revealed that BizCool has effects on the knowledge and understanding of enterprise commencement, and enterprise commencement knowledge also has effects on the understanding of enterprise commencement. In addition, it was found that the enterprise commencement knowledge and the understanding on enterprise commencement have effects on the intention of enterprise commence. In the result of verifying the hypothesis that the understanding of enterprise commencement according to the psychological characteristics of individuals will have a positive effect on the enterprise commencement intention, it was revealed that the risk resignation disposition and patience for ambiguity are having effects but accomplishment desire is not playing a moderating variable role. Through the above path analysis, a conclusion was obtained that the enterprise commencement education has effects on the outcome of enterprise commencement education through the understanding on enterprise commencement. Additionally, the nation needs to actively lead systematic enterprise commencement education within the policy of job creation upon realizing the need for enterprise commencement education of vocational high school, and a revitalization plan was proposed on the five kinds of a conversion of social perception on vocational high school, establishment of institutes specializing in BizCool and cultivation of BizCool specialists, development of various materials and expansion of BizCool program, field-centered lessons, revitalization of enterprise commencement club and personnel and resource support by companies.

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Effect a Presentation Product has on the Repurchase Action (증정상품이 소비자의 재구매행동에 미치는 영향)

  • Yun, Gi-Seon;Kim, Hong
    • 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.04a
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    • pp.375-404
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    • 2007
  • When we look into the market economy of our country recently, we learn that the mind of consumption after IMF crisis is very shrunk and the market is led into a serious slump of consumption. For an approach to survive the contraction of the market and the market competition, enterprises command a variety of sales promotion strategy, out of which presentation is a sales promotion strategy to give the same product. The price-discounted strategy through the provision of donation commodity may induce the temporarily-discounted commodity not to be sold to the consumers or make a damage of the images of the brand, or arouse the price war against other companies, or lower the sense of the quality of the commodity. Therefore, it is necessary for a company to meet the end users' demand and also maintain the evaluation of the quality on the consumers' products highly. Therefore, in this study, we have attempted to study and analyze the consumers' satisfaction level and reliability on the donation goods in order to suggest the orientation of the presentation promotion strategy in accordance with the changes of the sales market. In addition, we tried to understand how the recognition, consumers' satisfaction level and reliability on the presentation goods had on the repurchase. With such objectives in this study, we could make an analogy of the following significance and suggestion of study. Firstly, in order to survive a serious competition market, enterprises must execute the product presentation along with diverse events instead of commanding the sales promotion strategy through a simple product presentation. This strategy can be an alternative to lower the danger a person-to-person product presentation may bring about. That is to say, we shall not lower the quality and value of the products but enhance a new image to customers through a product donation occasion together with an event as a new marketing pioneering method. Secondly, during the period of the current economic depression, if a company provides the consumers with an opportunity free of charge through the present special event period and the practical events, it will affect the advertising effect of the goods, the introduction of the customers and customers' repurchase. For this purpose, the company has to heighten customers' preferences by selecting the items customers are liable to prefer and closely analyze the consumer's response and market for such an objective. Thirdly, with the internet age, as the market has a tendency to increase in the number of consumers who do shopping in the internet, the marketing strategy has to build up the strategy of the presentation product instead of a simple offline strategy. For example, a company shall have to draw attention or attraction from end users who intend to do shopping through the online by a product planning expo or a presentation product corner. Fourthly, the excessive sale promotion strategy of presentation products may bring about even a reverse effect on the value of the goods or consumers' attitude as seen above. Therefore, a company has to relay 'the value as to the price' to the consumers instead of the sales promotion strategy of donation products just for a temporary sales volume. Conclusively, even if we put the value with a reasonable price through the presentation product strategy in the past, we shall have construct the strategy by providing some plus factors in the price such as the provision of the upgraded products or services instead of just presentation, or the invitation of the events related to diverse events or culture arts from now on.

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A Study for the Shoes Micro-sized Manufacturing Industry and the Development of the Government Policy: Surveyed on Beomcheon-Dong in Busan (신발소공인 산업의 실태분석 및 정책지원 방향: 부산진구 범천동을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Chul Min;Kim, Nog Hyeon
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.47-59
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    • 2017
  • Korean Economy has been developed by the Korean Government's Support for the Large-sized Firms. This Government Policy causes the Polarization between Large-sized and Micro-sized Firms Aggravated. Micro-sized Firms are distributed over the Whole Industry Area, and can also cause the Economic Crisis If They are crashed down. Therefore Government Policy for the Micro-sized Manufacturing Industry is very Important Issue. This Paper Focused on the Analysis of Current Status for the Shoes Micro Manufacturing Industry. For the Effective Analysis, This Paper uses the Statistical Data Open to the Public and also conducts the Survey for the Micro-sized Firms in Busan. Statistical Program is used for Analyzing the Collected Data and the Major Findings are as Follows. First, Shoes Industry is led by the Micro and Small & Medium sized Firms rather than the Large-sized. And the Micro-sized Firms are getting the High Rate among the Whole Shoes Industry. Busan is heavily populated Area as the Origin of Shoes Industry. Second, even though Most of the Owner of the Micro-sized Firms have the High Technology Skill Level, Worker's Aging Phenomenon gets Worse and causes the Technology Handing down to the Next Generation Difficult. Third, Because the Factory Facility of the Micro-sized Firms is Dirt and Unstable, the Modernized Manufacturing Infrastructure such as the Apartment Factory Facility is Necessary. Forth, as the Micro-sized Firms which have the Intangible Asset such as Patent is Few, the Government Policy for Encouraging the Patent Application is strongly Needed. Fifth, Entrepreneurship and Collaboration Mind between Micro-sized Firms are Lacked, so Establishment of the Cooperative Union is required. Finally, the Effort for the Systemic Planning for the Management is lacked, and the Introduction of the Management Innovation is strongly needed. The Limitation and Future Research Direction is also discussed.