• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.231-252
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• 2021

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a key technology that will change the future the most. It affects the industry as a whole and daily life in various ways. As data availability increases, artificial intelligence finds an optimal solution and infers/predicts through self-learning. Research and investment related to automation that discovers and solves problems on its own are ongoing continuously. Automation of artificial intelligence has benefits such as cost reduction, minimization of human intervention and the difference of human capability. However, there are side effects, such as limiting the artificial intelligence's autonomy and erroneous results due to algorithmic bias. In the labor market, it raises the fear of job replacement. Prior studies on the utilization of artificial intelligence have shown that individuals do not necessarily use the information (or advice) it provides. Algorithm error is more sensitive than human error; so, people avoid algorithms after seeing errors, which is called "algorithm aversion." Recently, artificial intelligence has begun to be understood from the perspective of the augmentation of human intelligence. We have started to be interested in Human-AI collaboration rather than AI alone without human. A study of 1500 companies in various industries found that human-AI collaboration outperformed AI alone. In the medicine area, pathologist-deep learning collaboration dropped the pathologist cancer diagnosis error rate by 85%. Leading AI companies, such as IBM and Microsoft, are starting to adopt the direction of AI as augmented intelligence. Human-AI collaboration is emphasized in the decision-making process, because artificial intelligence is superior in analysis ability based on information. Intuition is a unique human capability so that human-AI collaboration can make optimal decisions. In an environment where change is getting faster and uncertainty increases, the need for artificial intelligence in decision-making will increase. In addition, active discussions are expected on approaches that utilize artificial intelligence for rational decision-making. This study investigates the impact of artificial intelligence on decision-making focuses on human-AI collaboration and the interaction between the decision maker personal traits and advisor type. The advisors were classified into three types: human, artificial intelligence, and human-AI collaboration. We investigated perceived usefulness of advice and the utilization of advice in decision making and whether the decision-maker's personal traits are influencing factors. Three hundred and eleven adult male and female experimenters conducted a task that predicts the age of faces in photos and the results showed that the advisor type does not directly affect the utilization of advice. The decision-maker utilizes it only when they believed advice can improve prediction performance. In the case of human-AI collaboration, decision-makers higher evaluated the perceived usefulness of advice, regardless of the decision maker's personal traits and the advice was more actively utilized. If the type of advisor was artificial intelligence alone, decision-makers who scored high in conscientiousness, high in extroversion, or low in neuroticism, high evaluated the perceived usefulness of the advice so they utilized advice actively. This study has academic significance in that it focuses on human-AI collaboration that the recent growing interest in artificial intelligence roles. It has expanded the relevant research area by considering the role of artificial intelligence as an advisor of decision-making and judgment research, and in aspects of practical significance, suggested views that companies should consider in order to enhance AI capability. To improve the effectiveness of AI-based systems, companies not only must introduce high-performance systems, but also need employees who properly understand digital information presented by AI, and can add non-digital information to make decisions. Moreover, to increase utilization in AI-based systems, task-oriented competencies, such as analytical skills and information technology capabilities, are important. in addition, it is expected that greater performance will be achieved if employee's personal traits are considered.

• Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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• v.53 no.4
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• pp.2-31
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• 2020

CheomSeongDae (瞻星臺) is a stone structure built in Gyeongju, the former Silla Dynasty capital, during the reign of Queen Seondeok (632~647AD). There exist dozens of hypotheses regarding its original purpose. Depending on to whom you ask, the answer could be a celestial observatory, a religious altar, a Buddhist stupa, a monumental tower symbolizing scientific knowledge, and so on. The most common perception of the structure among lay people is a stargazing tower. Historians, however, have suggested that it was intended as "a gateway to the heavens", specifically the Trāyastriṃśa or the second of the six heavens of Kāmadhātu located on the top of Mountain Sumeru. The name "Cheom-seong-dae" could be interpreted in many different ways. 'Cheom (瞻)' could refer to looking up, staring, or admiring, etc.; 'Seong (星)' could mean a star, heaven, night, etc.; and 'heaven' in that context can be a physical or religious reference. 'Dae (臺)' usually refers to a high platform on which people stand or things are placed. Researchers from the science fields often read 'cheom-seong' as 'looking at stars'; while historians read it as 'admiring the Trāyastriṃśa' or 'adoring Śakra'. Śakra is said to be the ruler of Trāyastriṃśa' who governs the Four Heavenly Kings in the Cāturmahārājika heaven, the first of the six heavens of Kāmadhātu. Śakra is the highest authority of the heavenly kings in direct contact with humankind. This paper examined the usages of 'cheom-seong' in Chinese literature dated prior to the publication of 『Samguk Yusa』, a late 13th century Korean Buddhist historical book that contains the oldest record of the structure among all extant historical texts. I found the oldest usage of cheom-seong (瞻星臺) in 『Ekottara Āgama』, a Buddhist script translated into Chinese in the late 4th century, and was surprised to learn that its meaning was 'looking up at the brightness left by Śakra'. I also found that 'cheom-seong' had been incorporated in various religious contexts, such as Hinduism, Confucianism, Buddhist, Christianism, and Taoism. In Buddhism, there was good, bad, and neutral cheom-seong. Good cheom-seong meant to look up to heaven in the practice of asceticism, reading the heavenly god's intentions, and achieving the mindfulness of Buddhism. Bad cheom-seong included all astrological fortunetelling activities performed outside the boundaries of Buddhism. Neutral cheom-seong is secular. It may help people to understand the nature of the physical world, but was considered to have little meaning unless relating to the spiritual world of Buddhism. Cheom-seong had been performed repetitively in the processes of constructing Buddhist temples in China. According to Buddhist scripts, Queen Māyā of Sakya, the birth mother of Gautama Buddha, died seven days after the birth of Buddha, and was reborn in the Trāyastriṃśa heaven. Buddha, before reaching nirvana, ascended from Jetavana to Trāyastriṃśa and spent three months together with his mother. Gautama Buddha then returned to the human world, stepping upon the stairs built by Viśvakarman, the deity of the creative power in Trāyastriṃśa. In later years, King Asoka built a stupa at the site where Buddha descended. Since then, people have believed that the stairway to the heavens appears at a Buddhist stupa. Carefully examining the paragraphic structure of 『Samguk Yusa』's records on Cheomseongdae, plus other historical records, the fact that the alignment between the tomb of Queen Seondeok and Cheomseongdae perfectly matches the sunrise direction at the winter solstice supports this paper's position that Chemseongdae, built in the early years of Queen SeonDeok's reign (632~647AD), was a gateway to the Trāyastriṃśa heaven, just like the stupa at the Daci Temple (慈恩寺) in China built in 654. The meaning of 'Cheom-seong-dae' thus turns out to be 'adoring Trāyastriṃśa stupa', not 'stargazing platform'.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.106-115
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• 2011

This study, based on (edited in 18th century), analysed the landscape system and cultural landscape elements of Yuhoidang(Hageowon 何去園) Garden in Musu-dong, Daejeon, and the findings are as in the following. YuHoidang(Gwon Yijin 權以鎭) managed Hageowon Garden in Musu-dong, located on the southern branch of Mt. Bomun, to realize his utopia. The completion of Hageowon Garden was only possible due to his installation of a variety of facilities in family gravesite on the hill behind his house: Shimyoso(Samgeunjeongsa 三近精舍, in 1707), Naboji(納汚池, in 1713), Banhwanwon(in 1714) and expended exterior space(in 1727). With regard to the landscape system of the village, the main range of mountains consists of Mt. Daedun, Mt. Odae and Mt. Bomun. The main high mountain of the three is Mt. Bomun, where 'Blue Dragon' hill branches off on the east side(Eungbong), 'White Tiger' in the west(Cheongeun and Sajeong) and Ansan(inner mountain) in the south. The landscape system is featured by 'mountains in back and rivers in front'. The river in the south-west, with its source in Mt. Juryun is called as the 'Stream of outer perfect spot', while the 'Stream of inner perfect spot' rises from Eungbong, passing through the east part of the village into the south-western direction. Banhwanwon Garden(盤桓園) was created with the stream in the east and natural bedrocks, and its landscape elements includes Naboji, Hwalsudam, Gosudae, Sumi Waterfall, Dogyeong(path of peach trees), Odeeokdae(platform with persimmon trees), Maeryong(Japanese apricot tree), springs and observatories. An expanded version of Banhwanwon was Hageowon garden, where a series of 'water-trees-stone' including streams, four ponds, five observation platforms, three bamboo forests and Chukgyeongwon(縮景園) of an artificial hill gives the origin forest a scenic atmosphere. When it comes to semantics landscape elements, there are (1) Yuhoidang to cherish the memory of a deceased parents, (2) Naboji for family unification, (3) Gosudae to keep fidelity, (4) Odeokdae to collect virtue and wisdom, (5) Sumi Waterfall to aspire to be a man of noble character, (6) Yocheondae for auspicious life, (7) Sumanheon and Gigungjae to be in pursuit of hermitic life, (8) Hwalsudam for development of family and study, (9) Mongjeong to repay favor of ancestors, (10) Seokgasan, a symbol of secluded life, (11) Hageowon to enjoy guarding graves in retired life. The spatial composition of Hageowon was realized through (1) Yuhoidang's inside gardens(Naboji, Jucheondang, Odeokdae, Dogyeong, Back yard garden and others) (2) Sumanheon(收漫軒) Byeolup or Yuhoidang's back yard gardens (Seokyeonji, Yocheondae, Sumanheon, Baegyeongdae, Amseokwon and others) (3) Chukgyeongwon of the artificial hill(which is also the east garden of Sumanheon, being composed of Hwalsudam, Sumi Waterfall and Gasan or 12 mountaintops) (4) the scenic spots for unifying Confucianism, Buddhism and Taoism are Cemetry garden in the back hill of the village, the temple of Yeogyeongam, Sansinkak(ancestral ritual place of folk religion) and Geoeopjae(family school). On top of that, Chagyeongwon Garden(借景園) commands a panoramic distant view of nature's changing beauty through the seasons.

• (The)Study of the Eastern Classic
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• no.50
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• pp.55-88
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• 2013

Gwonwu Hong Chan-yu is one of the modern and contemporary Korean scholars of Sino-Korean literature and one of the literati of his era, so is respected as a guiding light by academic descendants. Gwonwu was a teacher of his era, who experienced all the turbulence of Korean society, such as the Japanese occupation by force, the Korean War, the military dictatorship, and the struggle for democracy, and who educated and led young scholars of his time. However, academia has not payed attention to his life and achievements since his death. This paper is to examine the poetry of Gwonwu Hong Chan-yu, one of the representative modern and contemporary scholar of Sini-Korean literature, which has not yet been discussed by academia. The minimal meaning of this paper is that it is a first work based on his anthology, which has not been discussed by academia, and a first full-scale study on Gwonwu Hongchan-yu. For the reason, this paper aims at the detailed inspection of his poetic pieces recorded in his anthology. Nonetheless, despite such intentions, some limits cannot be avoided here and there in this paper for the insufficient knowledge and academic capability of this paper's writer and for the lack of academic sources. Gwonwu's poetry examined through his anthology shows the characteristic which is that his poems focus on exposing his own internal emotions. Such a characteristic says that his idea of poetic literature payed attention more to individuality, that is exposition of private emotions, than to social utility of poems. Gwonwu's such an idea of poetic literature can be generally affirmed throughout his poetry. Accordingly, Gwonwu preferred classical Chinese poems to archaistic poems, and single poems to serial poems; and avoided writing poems within social relations such as farewell-poems, bestowal-poems, and mourning-poems. When the characteristics of Gwonwu's poetic literature get summarized as such, however, some questions remain. The preferential question is whether the poems in his anthology are the whole poetry of him. Although Gwonwu's poetic pieces that the writer of this paper have checked out till now are all in his anthology, it is very much questionable whether Gwonwu's poetry can be summed up only with these poems. The next question is what is the writing method for taking joy(spice), sentiment, and full-heart into his poems if Gwonwu's poems focus on exposing his internal emotions, and if poems exposing joy and poems exposing sentiment and full-heart appear coherently in various different spaces and circumstances of writing. The final question is what are the meanings of Gwonwu's poems if his poetry checked out through his anthology directly shows either the reality carried in his poems or the reality of a time in his life. The questions listed above are thought to be resolved by the synchronizing process of stereoscopic searches both for Gwonwu as an individual and for the era of his life. Especially, spurring deeper researches toward a new direction regarding Gwonwu's poetry has an important meaning for construction of a complete modern and contemporary history of Sino-Korean literature and for procurement of continuous research on Sino-Korean literature and its history. For the reason, it is thought that more efforts of researchers are required.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.149-171
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• 2020

The period at university is to make decision about getting an actual job. As our society develops rapidly and highly, jobs are diversified, subdivided, and specialized, and students' job preparation period is also getting longer and longer. This study analyzed the log data of college students to see how the various activities that college students experience inside and outside of school might have influences on employment. For this experiment, students' various activities were systematically classified, recorded as an activity data and were divided into six core competencies (Job reinforcement competency, Leadership & teamwork competency, Globalization competency, Organizational commitment competency, Job exploration competency, and Autonomous implementation competency). The effect of the six competency levels on the employment status (employed group, unemployed group) was analyzed. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the difference in level between the employed group and the unemployed group was significant for all of the six competencies, so it was possible to infer that the activities at the school are significant for employment. Next, in order to analyze the impact of the six competencies on the qualitative performance of employment, we had ANOVA analysis after dividing the each competency level into 2 groups (low and high group), and creating 6 groups by the range of first annual salary. Students with high levels of globalization capability, job search capability, and autonomous implementation capability were also found to belong to a higher annual salary group. The theoretical contributions of this study are as follows. First, it connects the competencies that can be extracted from the school experience with the competencies in the Human Resource Management field and adds job search competencies and autonomous implementation competencies which are required for university students to have their own successful career & life. Second, we have conducted this analysis with the competency data measured form actual activity and result data collected from the interview and research. Third, it analyzed not only quantitative performance (employment rate) but also qualitative performance (annual salary level). The practical use of this study is as follows. First, it can be a guide when establishing career development plans for college students. It is necessary to prepare for a job that can express one's strengths based on an analysis of the world of work and job, rather than having a no-strategy, unbalanced, or accumulating excessive specifications competition. Second, the person in charge of experience design for college students, at an organizations such as schools, businesses, local governments, and governments, can refer to the six competencies suggested in this study to for the user-useful experiences design that may motivate more participation. By doing so, one event may bring mutual benefits for both event designers and students. Third, in the era of digital transformation, the government's policy manager who envisions the balanced development of the country can make a policy in the direction of achieving the curiosity and energy of college students together with the balanced development of the country. A lot of manpower is required to start up novel platform services that have not existed before or to digitize existing analog products, services and corporate culture. The activities of current digital-generation-college-students are not only catalysts in all industries, but also for very benefit and necessary for college students by themselves for their own successful career development.

• Korean Journal of Mineralogy and Petrology
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.41-56
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• 2021

The characteristics of the six rock cleavages(R1~H2) in Jurassic Hapcheon granite were analyzed using the distribution of ① microcrack lengths(N=230), ② microcrack spacings(N=150) and ③ Brazilian tensile strengths(N=30). The 18 cumulative graphs for these three factors measured in the directions parallel to the six rock cleavages were mutually contrasted. The main results of the analysis are summarized as follows. First, the frequency ratio(%) of Brazilian tensile strength values(kg/㎠) divided into nine class intervals increases in the order of 60~70(3.3) < 140~150(6.7) < 100~110·110~120(10.0) < 90~100(13.3) < 80~90(16.7) < 120~130·130~140(20.0). The distribution curve of strength according to the frequency of each class interval shows a bimodal distribution. Second, the graphs for the length, spacing and tensile strength were arranged in the order of H2 < H1 < G2 < G1 < R2 < R1. Exponent difference(λS-λL, Δλ) between the two graphs for the spacing and length increases in the order of H2(-1.59) < H1(-0.02) < G2(0.25) < G1(0.63) < R2(1.59) < R1(1.96)(2 < 1). From the related chart, the six graphs for the tensile strength move gradually to the left direction with the increase of the above exponent difference. The negative slope(a) of the graphs for the tensile strength, suggesting a degree of uniformity of the texture, increases in the order of H((H1+H2)/2, 0.116) < G((G1+G2)/2, 0.125) < R((R1+R2)/2, 0.191). Third, the order of arrangement between the two graphs for the two directions that make up each rock cleavage(R1·R2(R), G1·G2(G), H1·H2(H)) were compared. The order of arrangement of the two graphs for the length and spacing is reverse order with each other. The two graphs for the spacing and tensile strength is mutually consistent in the order of arrangement. The exponent differences(ΔλL and ΔλS) for the length and spacing increase in the order of rift(R, -0.08) < grain(G, 0.14) < hardway(H, 0.75) and hardway(H, 0.16) < grain(G, 0.23) < rift(R, 0.45), respectively. Fourth, the general chart for the six graphs showing the distribution characteristics of the microcrack lengths, microcrack spacings and Brazilian tensile strengths were made. According to the range of length, the six graphs show orders of G2 < H2 < H1 < R2 < G1 < R1(< 7 mm) and G2 < H1 < H2 < R2 < G1 < R1(≦2.38 mm). The six graphs for the spacing intersect each other by forming a bottleneck near the point corresponding to the cumulative frequency of 12 and the spacing of 0.53 mm. Fifth, the six values of each parameter representing the six rock cleavages were arranged in the order of increasing and decreasing. Among the 8 parameters related to the length, the total length(Lt) and the graph(≦2.38 mm) are mutually congruent in order of arrangement. Among the 7 parameters related to the spacing, the frequency of spacing(N), the mean spacing(Sm) and the graph (≦5 mm) are mutually consistent in order of arrangement. In terms of order of arrangement, the values of the above three parameters for the spacing are consistent with the maximum tensile strengths belonging to group E. As shown in Table 8, the order of arrangement of these parameter values is useful for prior recognition of the six rock cleavages and the three quarrying planes.

• (The) Research of the performance art and culture
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• no.42
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• pp.47-75
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• 2021

This thesis looks into the interpretation of the Korean War and mystery genre in Korea in the 1970s by analyzing the special drama , in which the theme was directly related to the Korean War, airing through MBC in 1979. It begins by finding the change in direction in the 1970s when the world of TV was dictated through the heavy censorship and the memory of the war by the government. It also looks at the intentions of the producer who was taking in the new way and the viewers who also accepted this drama and its reflections. In order to gain some insights into these issues, it compares between the drama "The Last Witness" and the original novel by Seong-jong Kim who holds the same time to see the way in which this is dramatized. The drama, "The Last Witness", was produced with a plan to generate a high-quality special drama which combined both artistry and sense of purpose. Nevertheless, as watching TV became a leisurely past-time during this period, TV dramas become more aggressive and suggestive in order to attract viewers. This ultimately was encored with obstacles due to the regime and the heavy censorship at the time. The genre of special drama that is well known in South Korea, is designed as an art form to satisfy both their unique artistry and its purpose. The conflict is seen between the key elements of the artistic drama crated by the producers and the 'encouraged' elements that often are needed to engage the viewers. Thus, more often than not, special dramas defeat the original intention of national harmony, encouraged by the regime. This is due to the 'novelty' aspect which grows from the effort of bringing enjoyment to viewers whilst also trying to achieve the artistic drama to life. Alongside this, crime element in this drama is designed in a way that visually embodies the process of deduction, becoming a new possibility to secure the reality of the times. However, it was also a paradoxical existence since it was indicated as an example of unrefined culture that lost its original intention. In that way, it is worth to think that detective suspense stories, which were not popular in Korea, influenced viewers as a tv drama series in the 1970s through the various elements that compose the genre. They went through a process of transplantation and acceptance whilst also attempting to satisfy the viewers and their encouraged elements to engage them. As is well known, crime drama in Korea has its own style by mixing anticommunism and detective reasoning. This combination is found in the way in which the genre naturally forms through the elements selected and excluded in the dramatization of "The Last Witness". The point is that the special drama "The Last Witness" can be seen as an intermediate form that shows the tendency of transformation from the detective reasoning form alongside the crime aspects as TV dramas began to include anticommunism messaging and investigation in the 1970s. In conclusion, when the detective reasoning is used as an element in a TV drama, it shows the trust of the public system and it constantly seeks the possibility of circumventing the political interpretation. The memories of the war is seen as a tool that neutralizes the dismal imaginations inscribed on the dark side of society and the system. As a result, "The Last Witness", broadcasted at the end of the Yushin regime in Korea, is a strange result which combines the logic of a special drama and the encouraged characteristics of television dramas. The viewers' desire which is the discussion about the hidden traces from the texts needs to be restored again.

• The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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• v.34
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• pp.21-30
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• 2022

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of oral positioning stent, the BinkieRT^TM in radiation treatment for head and neck cancer patients in terms of tongue positions reproducibility, tongue doses and material properties. Materials and Methods: 24 cases using BinkieRT^TM during radiation treatments were enrolled. The tongue was contoured on planning CT and CBCT images taken every 3 days during treatment, and then the DSC and center of tongue shift values were analyzed to evaluate the reproducibility of the tongue. The tongue dose was compared in terms of dose distribution when using BinkieRT^TM and different type of oral stents (mouthpiece, paraffin wax). Randomly selected respective 10 patients were measured tongue doses of initial treatment plan for nasal cavity and unilateral parotid cancer. Finally, In terms of material evaluation, HU and relative electron density were identified in RTPS. Results: As a result of DSC analysis, it was 0.8 ± 0.07, skewness -0.8, kurtosis 0.61, and 95% CI was 0.79~0.82. To analyze the deviation of the central tongue shift during the treatment period, a 95% confidence interval for shift in the LR, SI, and AP directions were indicated, and a one-sample t-test for 0, which is an ideal value in the deviation(n=144). As a result of the t-test, the mean and SD in the LR and SI directions were 0.01 ± 0.14 cm (p→.05), 0.03 ± 0.25 cm (p→.05), and -0.08 ± 0.25 cm (p ←.05) in the AP direction. In the case of unilateral parotid cancer patients, the Dmean to the tongue of patients using BinkieRT^TM was 16.92% ± 3.58% compared to the prescribed dose, and 23.99% ± 10.86% of patients with Paraffin Wax, indicating that the tongue dose was relatively lower when using BinkieRT^TM (p←.05). On the other hand, among nasal cavity cancer patients, the Dmean of tongue dose for patients who used BinkieRT^TM was 4.4% ± 5.6%, and for those who used mouthpiece, 5.9% ± 6.8%, but it was not statistically significant (p→.05). The relative electron density of Paraffin Wax, BinkieRT^TM and Putty is 0.94, 0.99, 1.26 and the mass density is 0.95, 0.99 and 1.32 (g/cc), Transmission Factor is 0.99, 0.98, 0.96 respectively. Conclusion: The result of the tongue DSC analysis over the treatment period was about 0.8 and Deviation of the center of tongue shifts were within 0.2 cm, the reproducibility was more likely excellent. In the case of unilateral head and neck cancer patients, it was found that the use of BinkieRT^TM rather than Paraffin Wax or Putty can reduce the unnecessary dose irradiated to the tongue. This study might be useful to understand of BinkieRT^TM's properties and advantages. And also it could be another considered option as oral stent to keep the reproducibility of tongue and reducing dose during head and neck radiation treatments.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.45 no.1
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• pp.11-25
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• 1979

There was much mass movement at many different mountain side of Peong Chang area in Kwangwon province by the influence of heavy rainfall through August/4 5, 1979. This study have done with the fact observed through the field survey and the information of the former researchers. The results are as follows; 1. Heavy rainfall area with more than 200mm per day and more than 60mm per hour as maximum rainfall during past 6 years, are distributed in the western side of the connecting line through Hoeng Seong, Weonju, Yeongdong, Muju, Namweon and Suncheon, and of the southern sea side of KeongsangNam-do. The heavy rain fan reason in the above area seems to be influenced by the mouktam range and moving direction of depression. 2. Peak point of heavy rainfall distribution always happen during the night time and seems to cause directly mass movement and serious damage. 3. Soil mass movement in Peongchang break out from the course sandy loam soil of granite group and the clay soil of lime stone and shale. Earth have moved along the surface of both bedrock or also the hardpan in case of the lime stone area. 4. Infiltration seems to be rapid on the both bedrock soil, the former is by the soil texture and the latter is by the crumb structure, high humus content and dense root system in surface soil. 5. Topographic pattern of mass movement spot is mostly the concave slope at the valley head or at the upper part of middle slope which run-off can easily come together from the surrounding slope. Soil profile of mass movement spot has wet soil in the lime stone area and loose or deep soil in the granite area. 6. Dominant slope degree of the soil mass movement site has steep slope, mostly, more than 25 degree and slope position that start mass movement is mostly in the range of the middle slope line to ridge line. 7. Vegetation status of soil mass movement area are mostly fire field agriculture area, it's abandoned grass land, young plantation made on the fire field poor forest of the erosion control site and non forest land composed mainly grass and shrubs. Very rare earth sliding can be found in the big tree stands but mostly from the thin soil site on the un-weatherd bed rock. 8. Dangerous condition of soil mass movement and land sliding seems to be estimated by the several environmental factors, namely, vegetation cover, slope degree, slope shape and position, bed rock and soil profile characteristics etc. 9. House break down are mostly happen on the following site, namely, colluvial cone and fan, talus, foot area of concave slope and small terrace or colluvial soil between valley and at the small river side Dangerous house from mass movement could be interpreted by the aerial photo with reference of the surrounding site condition of house and village in the mountain area 10. As a counter plan for the prevention of mass movement damage the technics of it's risk diagnosis and the field survey should be done, and the mass movement control of prevention should be started with the goverment support as soon as possible. The precautionary measures of house and village protection from mass movement damage should be made and executed and considered the protecting forest making around the house and village. 11. Dangerous or safety of house and village from mass movement and flood damage will be indentified and informed to the village people of mountain area through the forest extension work. 12. Clear cutting activity on the steep granite site, fire field making on the steep slope, house or village construction on the dangerous site and fuel collection in the eroded forest or the steep forest land should be surely prohibited When making the management plan the mass movement, soil erosion and flood problem will be concidered and also included the prevention method of disaster.