• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.77-89
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to anticipate the air travel demands over the period of 164 months, from January 1997 to August 2010 using ARIMA-Intervention modeling on the selected sample data. The sample data is composed of the number of the passengers who in the domestic route for Jeju route. In the analysis work of this study, the past events which are assumed to have affected the demands for the air travel routes to Jeju in different periods were used as the intervention variables. The impacts of such variables were reflected in the presupposed demand. The intervention variables used in this study are, respectively, the World Cup event in 2002 (from May to June), 2003 SARS outbreak (from April to May), Tsunami in January 2005, and the influenza outbreak from October to December 2009. The result of the above mentioned analysis revealed that the negative intervention events, like a global outbreak of an epidemic did have negative impact on the air travel demands in a risk aversion by the users of the aviation services. However, in case of the negative intervention events in limited area, where there are possible substituting destinations for the tourists, the impact was positive in terms of the air travel demands for substituting destinations due to the rational expectation of the users as they searched for other options. Also in this study, it was discovered that there is not a binding correlation between a nation wide mega-event, such as the World Cup games in 2002, and the increased air travel demands over a short-term period.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.91-110
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• 2014

The Korean Government is planning to build commercial districts and amenities for the major port such as Busan, Gwangyang, and Incheon in order to activate the hinterland in each port. The foreign ports in Germany, Japan and China is competing with Korean ports are developing the commercial districts and amenities of seaport hinterland in order to support urban functions. The purpose of this study is to predict the demand for the facility of commercial districts and amenities planned in the Gwangyang seaport hinterland, then to propose its utilization plans. By the demand forecasting, the districts and amenities need to be full of office, accommodation and commercial facilities, etc. In addition, the districts need to be developed gradually for the target of 2035, considering the demand growth. Leasing out the property to secular tenants, it needs to charge rent for profits of port authority. Therefore, it is required to revise the National Ports Act for the private agency to take part in building the facilities of the commercial districts and amenities.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.6
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• pp.933-940
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• 2018

The conversion of the internal combustion engine vehicle to the electric vehicle is suggested as a solution to the problem of global climate change and environmental pollution. Accordingly, this study was started to promote the use of electric vehicles. The purpose of this study is to identify the basic background knowledge and current status of electric vehicles in Korea and abroad, and expand from previous understanding on which factors affect ones choice on electric vehicles by considering individual characteristics and context in detail. In the analysis, a set of demand forecasting models were constructed by grouping the respondents based on the household characteristics as well as the vehicle ownership. At the time in need for better understanding of the feasibility of electric vehicles, it is expected that the research can assist the promotion of electric vehicles. In the follow-up study, I would like to continue the research on the activation of electric vehicles.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.139-148
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• 2019

This study proposed a multiple intervention time series model to predict KTX passenger demand. In order to revise the research of Kim and Kim (Korean Society for Railway, 14, 470-476, 2011) considering only the intervention of the second phase of Gyeong-bu before November of 2011, we adopted multiple intervention seasonal ARIMA models to model the time series data with additional interventions which occurred after November of 2011. Through the data analysis, it was confirmed that the effects of various interventions such as Gyeong-bu and Ho-nam 2 phase, outbreak of MERS and national holidays, which affected the KTX transportation demand, are successfully explained and the prediction accuracy could be quite improved significantly.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.7-14
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• 2021

The emergence of the automated smart grid has become an essential device for responding to these problems and is bringing progress toward a smart grid-based society. Smart grid is a new paradigm that enables two-way communication between electricity suppliers and consumers. Smart grids have emerged due to engineers' initiatives to make the power grid more stable, reliable, efficient and safe. Smart grids create opportunities for electricity consumers to play a greater role in electricity use and motivate them to use electricity wisely and efficiently. Therefore, this study focuses on power demand management through machine learning. In relation to demand forecasting using machine learning, various machine learning models are currently introduced and applied, and a systematic approach is required. In particular, the GP learning model has advantages over other learning models in terms of general consumption prediction and data visualization, but is strongly influenced by data independence when it comes to prediction of smart meter data.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.193-198
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• 2023

The rapid aging of the veterans has reached a level that cannot handle the demand for veterans care through the existing veterans care infrastructure. Therefore, it is urgent to improve the quality of the overall service of veterans due to the deterioration of the quality of nursing services for veterans with various underlying diseases compared to general patients and the long-term waiting for admission to the veterans care center. In this situation, about 640,000 people are admitted to veterans care institutions, but only about 5% of them can enter the veterans care center smoothly. As of June 2020, the number of people waiting to enter the veterans care center exceeds 1,000, including 520 at Suwon Veterans Nursing Home, 1 at Gwangju Veterans Nursing Home, 47 at Gimhae Veterans Nursing Home, 39 at Daegu Veterans Nursing Home, 86 at Namyangju Veterans Nursing Home.. Therefore, in order to predict those who want to enter the Veterans Nursing Home and wait for admission, and to find an important basis for resolving the long-term atmosphere, the ratio of future care providers is predicted in 2022-2050 and 2022-2024 to establish a cooperative system. As a result, 6,988 people in 2022, 6,797 people in 2023, and 6,606 people in 2024 can be admitted when 'preferred linkage', and 12,057 people in 2022 when 'expanded linkage'. It was found that 11,837 people in 2023 and 11,618 people in 2024 could be admitted. This was derived by estimating the percentage of people who wish to enter the Veterans Nursing Home when linking private nursing homes, and eventually "additional acceptance" of 22.5% in 2022, 20.9% in 2023, 19.4% in 2024, and 38.8% in 2023, 36.3% in 2023, and 34.1% in 2024 are most efficiently available.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.39 no.5
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• pp.605-612
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• 2019

Traditionally, travel demand forecasts have been conducted based on the data collected by a survey of individual travel behavior, and their limitations such as the accuracy of travel demand forecasts have been also raised. In recent, advancements in information and communication technologies are enabling new datasets in travel demand forecasting research. Such datasets include data from global positioning system (GPS) devices, data from mobile phone signalling, and data from call detail record (CDR), and they are used for reducing the errors in travel demand forecasts. Based on these background, the objective of this study is to assess the feasibility of CDR as a base data for travel demand forecasts. To perform this objective, CDR data collected for Daegu Metropolitan area for four days in April including weekdays and weekend days, 2017, were used. Based on these data, we analyzed the correlation between CDR and travel demand by travel survey data. The result showed that there exists the correlation and the correlation tends to be higher in discretionary trips such as non-home based business, non-home based shopping, and non-home based other trips.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.6D
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• pp.791-799
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• 2008

To build the system which has high utilization and usefulness for users, it is necessary to know the information type and use-demand that the use want. The purpose of this study is to forecast the preference and demand of utilization for bus information when bus information is offered through cellular phon. The accomplishments of this research are as follow : Firstly, importance on the level of individual factor and the value of change's figure can be evaluated, using preference analysis on bus information by conjoint analysis. Secondly, by establishing the use-demand model bus information using binary logit model, influence factor on whether or not the use of the user. Finally, ordered probit model was built by use behavior model in payment per call or per month of potential user of bus information. Through call times and sensitive analysis by payment methods, elasticity point, optimal payment fee, and use probability was analyzed. This study make application as basic to efficient bus information policy and to improve use rate of bus information in future because this study make it possible to get preference analysis, use-demand analysis and estimation of optimal payment fee which is reflecting various requirement in use of bus information user.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.105-118
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• 2008

There are many debates on the topic of the relationship between oil prices and economic growth. Through the repeated processes of conformations and contractions on the subject, two main issues are developed; one is how to define and drive oil shocks from oil prices, and the other is how to specify an econometric model to reflect the asymmetric relations between oil prices and output growth. The study, thus, introduces the unobserved component model to pick up the oil shocks and a first-order Markov switching model to reflect the asymmetric features. We finally employ unique oil shock variables from the stochastic trend components of oil prices and adapt four lags of the mean growth Markov Switching model. The results indicate that oil shocks exert more impact to recessionary state than expansionary state and the supply-side oil shocks are more persistent and significant than the demand-side shocks.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2011.10a
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• pp.589-594
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• 2011

Selecting an appropriate railway system in urban railway project is an important step for an efficient public transport policy. This paper attempts to solve the railway system selection problems in the (pre)feasibility study or preliminary research of urban railway project, by the rough transportation demand forecasting and financial analysis. There are two stages in this paper: in stage one, we review the worthwhile and various criteria which presented in precedent studies; whereas in stage two, an structured selection criteria is proposed for determining the appropriate railway system in urban railway project. The utilization of the proposed criteria is demonstrated with the case of a newtown in the metropolitan area. The results show that proposed criteria can be used to make the rational decision for governmental financial condition and social benefit.