• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand forecasting

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Strategy for Strengthening Late Mover's Competitiveness in the IT Equipment Market (정보기술기기 후발사업자의 경쟁력 강화전략;기술제휴 사례를 중심으로)

  • Yang, Je-Min;Kim, Jung-Eun;Lee, Seok-Joong;Park, Jae-Chon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.8 no.8
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    • pp.19-27
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    • 2008
  • The advance of IT brings various IT equipment which functions as creation, application, and distribution of digital contents, and its demand is increased in the market. As the world IT equipment market has grew steadily, some companies think of it as a good opportunity. But there is a entry barrier like IT Capabilities to the late movers. So some participate in the market, forming the technology alliance with a advanced company. Ironically, the market system set companies' partnership into rivalry. In this context, our study focused on strengthening late mover's competitiveness under the technology alliance. And we conducted the case study concerning the technology alliance, and showed a strategical implications. As a result, we found some challenges for late mover; price policy making by scientific demanding forecasting, preparatory research and management for brand identity and efficient contact points for customer management. We hope that results of the study will influence the development of digital contents industry.

A Study on the Fair Returns of Private Participants' Investments on BTO PPI Projects (BTO 민간투자사업 적정수익률에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Sung-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2009
  • This study will estimate the fair return on private participants' investments on BTO type PPI (Private Public Infrastructure) projects using the data from past BTO projects in Korea. In the past, the real returns of $6%\sim9%$ were provided to private participants. The results of this study show that those returns were too high compared with the estimated fair returns, especially for projects with the minimum revenue guarantee (MRG) by the government. Moreover, the excess portion of the return over the fair return becomes even larger when there is a demand forecast bias. In reality, most of the BTO projects have far lower actual revenues than the initial forecasted revenue in concession agreements. This phenomenon implies that BTO projects have a tendency of overly forecasting revenues. If so, the value of the minimum revenue guarantee becomes larger, and therefore, the fair return to private participants should decrease. It is hoped that this study helps future BTO projects' concession agreements between the government and private participants to become more fair from the perspectives of risk and return profiles.

Defining Rail Transit Level of Service and Analysis of it's Affection According to Rapid Transit Railway(KTX) (고속철도(KTX) 수요에 따른 dwelling time예측 모형개발)

  • Suh, Sun-Duck;Shin, Young-Ho;Shim, Hyun-Jin;Kim, Hwan-Su
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.06a
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    • pp.1612-1627
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    • 2008
  • Dwelling time is one of the factors that influence in rail. Current research in dwelling time has been focusing on railways, the state of the research in high-speed rail's dwelling time is not complete. Dwelling time is consisted of time to open door, time to get into and out of vehicle and time of the departure it takes after the passenger's door was closed, it was affected by various factors such as congestion's degree in vehicle, the number of persons that get into and out of vehicle, congestion's degree in station. In order to analyze theses, we need data analysis such as the number of persons that get into and out of vehicle, congestion's degree in station, congestion's degree in vehicle, but the congestion's degree and passenger's distribution chart in vehicle is excluded in this research due to difficulty of gathering data, and thus we will develop forecasting models through high-speed rail's demand most affected by the dwelling time.

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A Study on the Influence Factor Relationship of the Railway Tourism Policy for Job Satisfaction (철도관광정책 직무만족도 영향요인 연계성 분석)

  • Kim, Jung-Phyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.391-400
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    • 2015
  • This research used a survey of 350 staff members working at Korail with the purpose of analyzing influence factors for the railway tourism policy for job satisfaction; results were presented for the proposed factor. First, we selected the influence factor through precedent research related to the railway tourism policy. Second, the selected influence factor and the extent of satisfaction were used to determine whether or not any kind of difference existed according to individual attributes of the railway employees. Finally, we analyzed what the influence factor was between the category factor and the sub-category factor. In conclusion, it was found that government subsidy had a meaningful correlation with infrastructure expansion and the improvement of the railway business as it is connected to tourism efficiency. Human resources have a meaningful correlation with the needs of educational institutions and the retaining of talent. Railway tourism production has a meaningful correlation with railway tour production as it is conducted to satisfy tourists and the consortium. The shift of viewpoint has a meaningful correlation with the escape from the peace-at-any price principle and demand forecasting.

A Study on CNN based Production Yield Prediction Algorithm for Increasing Process Efficiency of Biogas Plant

  • Shin, Jaekwon;Kim, Jintae;Lee, Beomhee;Lee, Junghoon;Lee, Jisung;Jeong, Seongyeob;Chang, Soonwoong
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.42-47
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    • 2018
  • Recently, as the demand for limited resources continues to rise and problems of resource depletion rise worldwide, the importance of renewable energy is gradually increasing. In order to solve these problems, various methods such as energy conservation and alternative energy development have been suggested, and biogas, which can utilize the gas produced from biomass as fuel, is also receiving attention as the next generation of innovative renewable energy. New and renewable energy using biogas is an energy production method that is expected to be possible in large scale because it can supply energy with high efficiency in compliance with energy supply method of recycling conventional resources. In order to more efficiently produce and manage these biogas, a biogas plant has emerged. In recent years, a large number of biogas plants have been installed and operated in various locations. Organic wastes corresponding to biogas production resources in a biogas plant exist in a wide variety of types, and each of the incoming raw materials is processed in different processes. Because such a process is required, the case where the biogas plant process is inefficiently operated is continuously occurring, and the economic cost consumed for the operation of the biogas production relative to the generated biogas production is further increased. In order to solve such problems, various attempts such as process analysis and feedback based on the feedstock have been continued but it is a passive method and very limited to operate a medium/large scale biogas plant. In this paper, we propose "CNN-based production yield prediction algorithm for increasing process efficiency of biogas plant" for efficient operation of biogas plant process. Based on CNN-based production yield forecasting, which is one of the deep-leaning technologies, it enables mechanical analysis of the process operation process and provides a solution for optimal process operation due to process-related accumulated data analyzed by the automated process.

A Study on the Fisharena Development Policy in Japan (일본의 피셔리나 정비사업에 대한 한 고찰)

  • SEO, Geum Hong;OH, Yong Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.209-232
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    • 2013
  • Illuminating Japanese Fisharena Development Policy, we tried to find out some implications on the utilization of fishing port facilities as a way to accommodate uprising marine leisure demands of Korea. The major findings of this study are concentrated in the following three points. First, Japanese Fisharena Development Policy can be functionalized in Korea as a means of policy, but for the intervening difference of demand situation, precise forecasting on the marine leisure demands has to be preceded and Fisharena should be prepared as a supply buffer. Second, in the development stage of Fisharena, Software side is important as well as Hardware side. On the development and operation, utilizing civil organizations is necessary to bring down the wharfage of Fisharena to not suppress the marine leisure demands. Third, selection of the fishing port and decision of the development scale are additional important points. In particular, preferential consideration of utilizing inner-city fishing ports as small-scale Fisherinas to address the marine leisure demands would be desirable in Korea.

Effect of Power Output Reduction on the System Marginal Price and Green House Gas Emission in Coal-Fired Power Generation (석탄화력발전 출력감소가 계통한계가격 및 온실가스 배출량에 미치는 영향)

  • Lim, Jiyong;Yoo, Hoseon
    • Plant Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.47-51
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    • 2018
  • This study analyzed the effect of power output reduction in coal fired power generation on the change of system marginal price and green house gas emissions. Analytical method was used for electricity market forecasting system used in korea state owned companies. Operating conditions of the power system was based on the the 7th Basic Plan for Electricity Demand and Supply. This as a reference, I analyzed change of system marginal price and green house gas emission by reduced power output in coal fired power generation. The results, if the maximum output was declined as 29 [%] to overall coal-fired power plant, system marginal price is reduced 12 [%p] compared to before and decreasing greenhouse gas emissions were 9,966 [kton]. And if the low efficiency coal fired power plant that accounted for 30 [%] in overall coal-fired power plant stopped by year, system marginal price is reduced 14 [%p] compared to before and decreasing greenhouse gas emissions were 12,874 [kton].

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A Simulation Framework of Multi-Agent Based Small Engagement Using Cougaar Architecture (Cougaar Architecture 활용 다중 에이전트 기반 소규모 교전 시뮬레이션 Framework)

  • Hwam, Won-K.;Chung, Yong-Ho;Park, Sang-C.
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.101-109
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    • 2011
  • M&S in the field of national defense is a battle system has been highly spotlighted for obtaining weapon systems, analyzing and experimentation of battle effects to reduce costs, time, and risks. It is classified as Campaign, Mission, Engagement, and Engineering levels by detail of description. In engagements, many situations on the battle field which are really unpredictable are required to be considered on the view of diverse tactics. Thus, engagement simulation is in demand to use for forecasting real-world battle situations by inserting various components which consists of real engaging situations into virtual local battle field. While developing the engagement simulation, adopting the concept of agent-based simulation gives it benefits which are improved autonomy, composability, and reusability of entities. It means reducing the time, cost and effort to develop the simulations. This paper concentrates on the framework of multi-agent based engagement simulation using Cougaar Architecture.

Developing the travel cost function based on Microscopic Simulator(VISSIM) Data (미시적 교통류 시뮬레이터기반 통행비용함수의 개발 및 적용)

  • Cho, Hyun-Woo;Lee, Yong-Taeck
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.129-134
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    • 2007
  • In general, based on traffic data in a ideal traffic condition, BPR cost function is used to a variety of transportation policies. However, Some researchers have reported that BRP cost function is not appropriate for analyzing traffic pattern as well as forecasting future demand.(Spiess, 1989 ; Singh, 1999) Therefore, in this paper to solve this problem, a methodology based on data through Micro traffic Simulator Based(MSB) is developed. As a result following outputs are obtained ; (1) presenting a methodology to develop a travel cost function through VISSIM in order to assess transportation policies and (2) developing BRP cost function and MSB cost function from data analysis through VISSIM and verifying availability of MSB function by comparative analysis.

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A Methodology for Defining the Study Impact Area Using Mode Diversion Trip Rate in Rail Infrastructure Feasibility Study (철도사업에서의 수단전환통행비율을 고려한 분석영향권 설정방법론의 개발)

  • Jeon, Gyo Seok;Lee, Kyu Jin;Chung, Woohyun;Choi, Keechoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.81-92
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    • 2012
  • The current Korean preliminary feasibility study guidebook provides a simple method for determining the impact area of a transportation project without taking its characteristics into account, which often leads travelers to switch their travel modes. Hence, this study develops a comprehensive methodology for defining the impact area when evaluating railroad projects, which can significantly affect travel mode choice behaviors. To develop the methodology, a hypothetical project was devised. The analysis results show that the convergence of mode-diverted trip rates is improved from 76% to 93% by implementing the proposed method. In addition, there was a significant difference in benefits (about 10.9 billion won) between adopting the current method and the proposed method.